NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 28: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jalen Brunson +475 (Hawks vs. Knicks)

For one of the best NBA first basket bets tonight, Jalen Brunson stands out as a strong option as the New York Knicks face the Atlanta Hawks in Game 5 at +475 odds.

New York holds a slight but meaningful edge at the opening tip, winning 52.3% of jump balls compared to 48.8% for Atlanta. That small advantage could be enough to secure the first possession in what projects as a tightly contested matchup.

1 POINT GAME!!!!! JALEN BRUNSON. pic.twitter.com/zhbQ2RKJgX

— NEW YORK KNICKS (@nyknicks) April 21, 2026

If the Knicks control the opening sequence, Brunson is the clear focal point. As the primary initiator, he is expected to have the ball in his hands immediately and set the tone offensively.

Brunson is averaging 25.5 points per game on 40.9% shooting, while also leading the team with 22.3 field goal attempts per game. His high usage rate ensures he is heavily involved from the start of games, especially in playoff settings.

With consistent volume and early offensive responsibility, Brunson at +475 offers strong value as a first basket prop bet in Game 5.

Victor Wembanyama +360 (Trail Blazers vs. Spurs)

NBA first basket betting in this matchup leans heavily on early possession control, and that is where San Antonio holds a clear edge.

The Spurs have dominated the opening tip this season, winning 76.7% of jump balls compared to just 51.2% for Portland. That gap strongly increases the likelihood that San Antonio gets the first shot attempt and sets the tone immediately.

If the Spurs secure that opening possession, Victor Wembanyama becomes the most logical candidate to strike first. After missing Game 3 due to a concussion, he returned strong with 27 points against the Trail Blazers, showing no signs of slowing down.

WEMBY 🤝 SHAQ

In his masterful Game 4 performance, Victor Wembanyama became the first player to record 25+ PTS, 10+ REB, and 7+ BLK in a postseason game since Shaquille O’Neal on May 9, 2004. https://t.co/ZBFmZw00RH pic.twitter.com/eczbcUrZnx

— NBA (@NBA) April 26, 2026

He is averaging 25 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field, with standout performances of 35 and 27 points in his two full games in this series. Wembanyama’s combination of usage and efficiency makes him a primary option right away.

At +360 odds, he presents strong value to record the first basket in a matchup where San Antonio is likely to control the opening sequence.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.