NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 30: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Karl-Anthony Towns +700 (Knicks vs. Hawks)

For one of tonight’s best NBA first basket prop, Karl-Anthony Towns offers serious value against the Atlanta Hawks in Game 6 at +700 odds.

New York holds a slight edge at the opening tip, winning 51.7% of jump balls compared to 48.3% for Atlanta. While not a massive gap, it’s enough to give the Knicks a strong chance at the first possession in what should be a competitive Game 6.

KAT POINTED AT HIM 😭🔥 pic.twitter.com/a9l2jppaxb

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) April 19, 2026

If the Knicks control the opening sequence, Towns is a compelling option to get involved early. He has been efficient and productive in this series, especially against Atlanta’s interior defense.

Towns has scored 18 or more points in five of his last six games and is shooting an impressive 59.3% from the field against the Hawks in this matchup. That efficiency, combined with his ability to score inside and out, makes him a dangerous first shot candidate.

At +700, the price is simply too appealing to ignore for a player with Towns’ form and offensive upside.

Julius Randle +500 (Nuggets vs. Timberwolves)

The NBA first basket market in this matchup offers value on Minnesota gaining a slight edge early, and that brings Julius Randle into focus at +500.

The Timberwolves hold a narrow advantage in the jump circle, winning 54% of tip offs compared to 52.9% for Denver. While the margin is small, it still points toward Minnesota having a strong chance at the opening possession.

If the Timberwolves do control that first look, Randle is a logical option to convert. He has been a steady scoring presence this season, averaging 21.1 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field. His ability to create his own shot makes him a reliable early game option.

Randle’s involvement in this series further supports the pick. He has recorded at least 15 field goal attempts in four of five matchups while averaging 19.4 points. That consistent usage and scoring rhythm give him a strong opportunity to strike first.

At +500 odds, Randle offers solid value as a first basket candidate.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.