NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, May 1: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +500 (Cavaliers vs. Raptors)

As one of tonight’s best NBA first scorer bets, Donovan Mitchell stands out as a strong option as the Cleveland Cavaliers face the Toronto Raptors in Game 6 at +500 odds.

Cleveland enters with a clear edge at the opening tip, winning 65.5% of jump balls compared to just 42.5% for Toronto. That advantage should give the Cavaliers control of the first possession and an early chance to get on the board.

DONOVAN MITCHELL FROM THE LOGO AT THE BUZZER. @spidadmitchell | #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/IefFNUMamH

— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) April 30, 2026

If Cleveland gets that first look, Mitchell is the most likely player to capitalize. He continues to be the focal point of the offense and has shown a willingness to attack right from the start.

Mitchell is averaging 23.3 points per game on 44% shooting, including 39% from beyond the arc, while putting up 20 field goal attempts per game. That volume and confidence make him a prime candidate to take the opening shot.

With the Cavaliers likely dictating the first possession and Mitchell leading the charge, +500 odds offer solid value for a first basket prop tonight.

Austin Reaves +500 (Lakers vs. Rockets)

The first basket market in this matchup points toward the Lakers controlling the opening possession, which creates a strong setup for Austin Reaves at +500.

Los Angeles has a clear advantage in the jump circle, winning 65.5% of tip offs compared to just 34.5% for Houston. That edge makes it likely the Lakers get the first shot and an early scoring opportunity.

AUSTIN REAVES TONIGHT
🌟 34 minutes
🌟 22 points
🌟 6 assists
🌟 4 assists
🌟 4/16 FG

BRIGHT SIDE? AR IS BACK ✨ pic.twitter.com/NPQCMQrjjI

— Lakers Lead (@LakersLead) April 30, 2026

Reaves is an intriguing option in this spot following his return to the lineup. He logged 34 minutes and scored 22 points in his first game back, showing he is ready to take on a meaningful role right away. With that initial game behind him, there is reason to expect sharper efficiency and more rhythm offensively.

During the regular season, Reaves averaged 23.3 points per game while shooting 49% from the field. His ability to handle the ball and create scoring chances makes him a strong candidate to be involved early.

At +500 odds, Reaves offers solid value as one of the best first scorer bets in the NBA tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.