NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, May 7: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +550 (Cavaliers vs. Pistons)

For one of tonight’s best NBA first basket props, Donovan Mitchell highlights as a strong option as the Cleveland Cavaliers face the Detroit Pistons at +550 odds.

Cleveland brings a clear advantage into the opening tip, winning 64.4% of jump balls compared to just 44.4% for Detroit. That sizable gap should give the Cavaliers control of the first possession and an early opportunity to get on the board.

First, a Spida Triple…@spidadmitchell | #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/ZXGQdGa04z

— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) May 6, 2026

If Cleveland executes early, Mitchell is the most likely player to take charge. He continues to operate as the team’s most aggressive scoring option and is heavily involved right from the start of games.

Mitchell has attempted 19 or more field goals in four of his last five games and has scored at least 22 points in three straight outings, showing both volume and consistency. That kind of usage makes him a prime candidate to take the opening shot.

With the Cavaliers expected to control the first possession and Mitchell leading the offense, +550 odds offer solid value for a first basket prop tonight.

LeBron James +750 (Lakers vs. Thunder)

In Game 2, LeBron James is once again one of the best NBA first basket prop bets as the Los Angeles Lakers take on the Oklahoma City Thunder at +750 odds.

After cashing in Game 1, the same price presents another opportunity to back James, who has been in outstanding form. He’s turned back the clock offensively, scoring 25 or more points in three straight games and in five of his last six.

Los Angeles also holds the edge at the opening tip, winning 65.2% of jump balls compared to 51.7% for Oklahoma City. That advantage should give the Lakers the first possession and a chance to dictate the early tempo.

LEBRON AND-1 TO START THE SERIES 🤫

(via @MindOfBron) pic.twitter.com/D6Qe26jalV

— Lakers Lead (@LakersLead) May 6, 2026

With Luka Doncic out, James has taken full control of the offense. He’s attempted 20 or more field goals in four of his last six games, showing a clear increase in usage and aggressiveness. That early involvement is key in first basket markets.

Given his current form and the Lakers’ likely control of the opening possession, +750 odds offer massive value for James to score first again tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.