NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, May 15: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jarrett Allen +450 (Pistons vs. Cavaliers)

As one of the best NBA first basket bets tonight, Jarrett Allen stands out as one of the strongest options as the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Detroit Pistons in Game 6 at +450 odds.

Cleveland enters with a major edge at the opening tip, winning 65% of jump balls compared to just 44.7% for Detroit. That advantage should allow the Cavaliers to control the first possession and immediately work the offense inside.

The Cavs crowd started chanting Jarrett Allen's name and he rewarded them with this VICIOUS slam! 😤 pic.twitter.com/T5YTTvY6J6

— NBA on NBC and Peacock (@NBAonNBC) May 12, 2026

Allen is often involved early, especially around the rim where Cleveland looks to establish physicality. Whether it’s a designed touch in the paint or a quick putback opportunity, Allen’s role fits perfectly for first basket betting.

The big man has been in solid form recently, scoring 16 or more points in three of his last four games. During the regular season, he averaged 15.4 points per game on an elite 63.8% shooting, and he has carried that efficiency into the playoffs with 63.2% shooting while averaging 13.4 points per game.

With Cleveland likely to secure the opening possession and Allen thriving around the basket, +450 odds offer strong value for a first basket prop tonight.

De’Aaron Fox +700 (Spurs vs. Timberwolves)

For another top NBA first scorer prop bet, De’Aaron Fox offers tremendous value as the San Antonio Spurs face the Minnesota Timberwolves at +700 odds.

Victor Wembanyama will naturally draw attention in this market, but Fox brings excellent upside at a much bigger number. San Antonio should control the opening tip once again, owning the best jump ball success rate in the NBA at 77% compared to 53% for Minnesota. That advantage gives the Spurs a strong chance to secure the first possession and attack immediately.

“1… 2… cha-cha-cha!”

De'Aaron Fox (17p) going to work near the baseline 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/7t5llbu6YY

— NBA (@NBA) May 11, 2026

If the Spurs get the opening look, Fox is more than capable of capitalizing. He has been productive throughout the postseason, averaging 17 points per game while consistently staying involved offensively.

Fox has also found success in this matchup specifically, scoring at least 17 points in three straight games against the Timberwolves. During the regular season, he averaged 18.6 points per game on 48.6% shooting, showing the efficiency needed for this type of prop.

San Antonio likely controls the opening possession and Fox playing aggressive basketball, +700 odds provide outstanding value for a first basket bet tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.