NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, June 3: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Victor Wembanyama +310 (Knicks vs. Spurs)

For Game 1 of the NBA Finals, Victor Wembanyama stands out as one of the strongest first basket picks on the board as the San Antonio Spurs host the New York Knicks at +310 odds.

San Antonio has been the gold standard in first basket betting all season, largely because of its dominance at center court. The Spurs lead the NBA with a remarkable 79% jump ball win rate, giving them a consistent edge in securing the opening possession. Had Wembanyama not missed time during the season, that number could have been even higher.

That advantage should put the ball in San Antonio’s hands right away, and it would be no surprise to see the Spurs run their first action through Wembanyama. He has been the focal point of the offense throughout the postseason, using his unique combination of size, skill, and touch to score from all areas of the floor.

Wemby tips it in through contact 👽

The Spurs are battling in Game 5! pic.twitter.com/W2DzDmDd7B

— NBA (@NBA) May 27, 2026

Wembanyama enters the Finals averaging 21 points per game on an outstanding 58.3% shooting during the playoffs. Whether it is a finish at the rim, a midrange jumper, or a second chance opportunity, he has multiple ways to cash this prop.

With the Spurs likely controlling the opening tip and looking to establish their superstar early, Wembanyama at +310 is one of the best NBA first basket bets for Game 1.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.