The NBA MVP odds for the 2025-26 suggested a favored trio between last year’s top three: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, and Luka Doncic. But Victor Wembanyama has now entered the chat. Will one of the favorites win, or can an underdog upset the odds?
Let’s explore the odds, the top contenders, and the most promising dark horses, before I share my prediction for the NBA regular season MVP.
2025-26 NBA MVP Betting Odds
| Player | Odds to Become MVP |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +190 |
| Victor Wembanyama | +250 |
| Nikola Jokic | +425 |
| Luka Doncic | +550 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +800 |
| Anthony Edwards | +5500 |
| Tyrese Maxey | +6000 |
| Stephen Curry | +8000 |
| Alperen Sengun | +15000 |
| Jalen Brunson | +15000 |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+190) continues to lead the way at NBA betting sites with an implied probability of 34.5% to go back-to-back as MVP. But the big riser is Victor Wembanyama (+250), as the “Alien” has jumped from +1500 to start the season, all the way up to +250! The San Antonio Spurs’ star has an implied probability of 28.6% to win the award for the first time.
Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic (+425) is next, followed by Luka Doncic (+500), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+800). Then, there is a massive drop to Anthony Edwards (+5500), Tyrese Maxey (+6000), and Stephen Curry. Clearly, there is an upper class to the NBA MVP odds, and then the rest of the league!
Remember, players have to play 65 games now to be eligible to win NBA MVP, and play for at least 20 minutes in each game. If there is an injury, players can get by with 62 games. Keep that in mind when you’re making your NBA MVP picks.
Bovada offers MVP winner odds on many other players, available at Bovada > Sports > Basketball > NBA Awards.
NBA MVP Favorites for 2025-26
The following three players are most likely to win the NBA MVP award this season, based on the betting odds.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+190)
“SGA” hasn’t slowed down off his first MVP season and leading Oklahoma City to the NBA title. He is averaging 34.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists for the Thunder, who are 6-0 to start the season as of October 31.
Jason Kidd says Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in the world 👀
(Via @CAlmanza1007) pic.twitter.com/oVOVgoqJxC
— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) October 28, 2025
Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting 52.1% from the field, and 87% from the free-throw line. His three-point shot (27.8%) hasn’t started to fall yet. When that happens, good luck to the rest of the league.
The Thunder have a target on their backs now as the defending champs, but “SGA” has no fear and is a deserving NBA MVP betting favorite!
Victor Wembanyama (+250)
Outside of the NBA gambling scandal, “Wemby” is the story of the league on the court to start the season. The 21-year-old is averaging 30.2 points, 14.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 4.8 blocks.
Players in NBA history to have at least 150 points, 70 rebounds, 20 blocks & 5+ made threes over a 5-game span:
Victor Wembanyama – First 5 game of this season.
That’s it. pic.twitter.com/zQNg4L3L6R
— Greg Harvey (@BetweenTheNums) October 31, 2025
He leads the league in rebounds by 0.1 over Jokic. But Wembanyama’s 4.8 blocks are more than double the next player, Utah’s Walker Kessler, who averages 2.3 swats. He also unofficially leads the league in players driving into the lane, seeing “Wemby”, and throwing it to the nearest teammate.
The Spurs are 5-0 to start the season, and expectations are now sky-high. Rookie Dylan Harper has also been excellent, but the Spurs will only go as far as “Wemby” takes them, Please, keep him healthy, San Antonio.
Nikola Jokic (+425)
Jokic has yet to get his scoring chops going, averaging 20.3 points through Denver’s first four games. But he’s still putting up 14.5 boards and 11.2 assists, along with 2.0 steals. The “Joker” has triple-doubles in each of Denver’s first four games.
If Nikola Jokic records another triple-double tonight, he would become the first player in NBA history to open a season with five consecutive.
Jokic is currently tied with Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook, who logged four straight triple-doubles to start a new season. pic.twitter.com/9cs7EbJqwf
— Evan Sidery (@esidery) October 31, 2025
The Nuggets are 3-1 as of October 31, so Jokic won’t complain about scoring. With Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon carrying the scoring load, Jokic can focus on rebounding and passing. Cam Johnson has yet to truly take off with the Nuggets, but that will come.
It’s a credit to “SGA” and “Wemby” that Jokic isn’t getting more attention, but this is just what the “Joker” does. He averaged a triple-double last season, so this isn’t new. Once he starts scoring at his usual 26-30 points per game clip, Jokic will start to get more attention (not that he wants it). He’ll be in the 2025-26 NBA MVP betting conversation all season!
Top NBA MVP Betting Contenders
Let’s examine two players who are within shouting distance of the top three in the 2025-26 NBA MVP odds!
Luka Doncic (+550)
Doncic has played just two games for the Lakers, but they’ve been incredible games. He averaged 46.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists in those games before going out with finger and leg injuries.
BREAKING: Luka Doncic has been upgraded to PROBABLE for tonight’s game 🚨
LET’S GO! pic.twitter.com/pgkmIR3oSn
— Lakers Daily (@LakersDailyCom) October 31, 2025
The Slovenian superstar is probable to return on Halloween night, and the rest of the league should be scared. Austin Reaves is lighting it up for the Lakers, but he’ll take a back seat when Dončić returns. LeBron James is still out for the foreseeable future with sciatica, so Doncic and Reaves will run the offense.
When Doncic is on, there aren’t many more players in the league who are as fun to watch. Even when James returns, it seems like this is Doncic’s team. Like his good friend, Jokic, Doncic will be around the top of the NBA MVP odds this season, if he can stay on the floor.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+800)
“The Greek Freak” is off to a flying start for the 4-1 Bucks, averaging 36.3 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists. He is also second in the league, completing 69.5% of his shots. Kessler is first at 75%, but he takes 8.0 shots per game to 20.5 for Antetokounmpo.
NBA Players of the Week for Week 1.
West: Victor Wembanyama (@spurs)
East: Giannis Antetokounmpo (@Bucks) pic.twitter.com/fZc7ZHTvGD— NBA (@NBA) October 27, 2025
Antetokounmpo missed Thursday’s game against Golden State with a knee injury, so the Bucks would be wise to be smart with that. This team of role players is fun and actually beat the Warriors, but they’re not a playoff team without Antetokounmpo.
If the Bucks end up in the top four in the East, Antetokounmpo will get consideration, and these current NBA MVP betting odds could look like a bargain.b
Best NBA MVP Sleepers for 2025-26
While the three top favorites are certainly head and shoulders above the rest in the MVP race, I see two players who could provide some value.
Anthony Edwards (+5500)
Edwards is another player who suffered an early injury, as a balky hamstring has put him on the sidelines. “Ant” was averaging 25.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in three games.
“Good call, Tyler. My bad, Tyler”
– Anthony Edwards conceding he was wrong to argue the call with referee Tyler Ford pic.twitter.com/eNQVDOQxbn
— Timberwolves Clips (@WolvesClips) October 30, 2025
He may also be the most affable superstar in the league, which always puts you in the NBA MVP race. Edwards wants to be known and wants to be a star, and he already has the game for it. The numbers aren’t MVP-caliber yet; they’ll get there.
Once Edwards ramps up, if he can stay healthy, he’ll have a say in this NBA MVP betting conversation.
Jalen Brunson (+15000)
Brunson’s 2025-26 NBA MVP odds are well undervalued; he should be at least equal to Edwards, if not better. The Knicks’ star is averaging 31.8 points, 5.0 assists, and 4.0 rebounds.
It’s been a long time coming, Knicks fans 👀@TimBontemps tells how Jalen Brunson’s rise has New York dreaming of its first championship in 52 years 🗽 pic.twitter.com/mzMGM2pi5q
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) October 22, 2025
He is already playing fewer minutes for the Knicks under Mike Brown, but that should improve his efficiency through the season. He is shooting 48.3% from the field, and only 31.3%, but that will get better.
I would even just drop a sprinkle on Brunson’s NBA MVP odds now at this price. If the Knicks win the East, and the media would put the MVP campaign into overdrive, I could see a world in which Brunson ends up with the award.
2025-26 NBA MVP Prediction and Betting Pick
Wembanyama jumping into the NBA MVP betting conversation this early isn’t something that many figured would happen, but here we are.
But I’m going with Doncic at +550 for the value! He’ll have a phenomenal season, as he has always had throughout his career. It’s just a matter of staying healthy and getting to the 65-game threshold. If Doncic can do that, and the Lakers can finish top three in the West, he’ll get some votes. He was +300 to start the season. At +550, you’re getting a great price on the Lakers’ superstar!
Let’s go with Luka Dončić at +550 in our 2025-26 NBA MVP betting predictions!
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