NBA MVP Odds and Predictions: Can SGA Repeat in 2025-26?

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Finn Archer
Finn Archer in NBA
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NBA MVP Odds and Predictions: Can SGA Repeat in 2025-26?

The NBA MVP odds for the 2025-26 suggested a favored trio between last year’s top three: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, and Luka Doncic. Victor Wembanyama had forced his way into the group, but his health could be an issue. Will one of the favorites win, or can an underdog upset the odds?

Let’s explore the odds, the top favorites, and the most promising dark horses, before I share my prediction for the NBA regular season MVP.


2025-26 NBA MVP Betting Odds

Player Odds to Become MVP
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +120
Nikola Jokić +140
Luka Dončić +310
Cade Cunningham +5500
Victor Wembanyama +8000
Tyrese Maxey +15000
Jalen Brunson +20000
Donovan Mitchell +30000
Jaylen Brown +40000
Anthony Edwards +45000
Alperen Sengun +75000
Stephen Curry +75000
Devin Booker +100000
Jalen Johnson +100000
Kevin Durant +10000

NBA betting sites suggest that it’s a three-player race at the top of the board, and the gap to the rest of the league is even larger than it was about a month ago! Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+120) has taken the top spot back from Nikola Jokić (+140), with “SGA” moving from +175, and “Joker” was +125 on November 21. Luka Dončić (+310) is trying to keep up with the top two, and his NBA MVP odds have changed from +350. The implied win probability for this trio ranges from 22.2% to 45.4%.

Next on the board is Cade Cunningham (+5500), who may need the top trio to get hurt and miss the 65-game threshold needed. The same goes for Victor Wembanyama (+8000), who has had his own injury issues.

Then, it drops all the way to Tyrese Maxey (+15000). However, the 2025-26 NBA MVP betting odds can change in a hurry if one of the top three misses any time!

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NBA MVP Favorites for 2025-26

The following three players are most likely to win the NBA MVP award this season, based on the betting odds.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+120)

Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the 24-2 Thunder towards a potentially historic season! The reigning MVP is second in the league with 32.4 points, while adding 6.4 assists and 4.6 rebounds. He also adds 1.4 steals per game, while shooting a mind-boggling 56% from the field, 43.7% from beyond the arc, and 88.4% from the free-throw line.

Much is made about Gilgeous-Alexander’s attempts to get to the foul line, but that’s not on him; it’s on the officials. He’s not the first NBA superstar to try and bait the opposition into fouls, and he won’t be the last. But fouling him might be the best chance, as shooting 56% as a guard is remarkable.

Even though the Thunder were upset by San Antonio in the NBA Cup semifinals, they’re still the runaway favorites in the NBA championship odds to repeat. As long as they’re the best team in the league, “SGA” will be in one of the top two spots here.

Nikola Jokić (+140)

Jokić is having his own incredible season. The Denver star is averaging 29.8 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 10.8 assists, while shooting 61.3% from the floor, 43.3% from beyond the arc, and 84.2% from the charity stripe. His 12 triple-doubles lead the NBA; he has six more than Atlanta’s Jalen Johnson, who is in second place with six.

The Nuggets are 19-6 and are trying to stay within touching distance of the Thunder. Winning records will have a lot to do with who wins MVP, and if OKC wins 70-plus games, there’s a good chance “SGA” wins it.

But the Nuggets are also excellent, and if they’re close to the Thunder at the end of the season, it bodes well for Jokić getting his fourth MVP!

Luka Dončić (+310)

Dončić leads the league with 34.7 points, shooting 46% from the field for the 18-7 Lakers. He isn’t even shooting the three-ball well at 32.4%, but Dončić is shooting 81% from the free-throw line. He also leads the NBA with 12.3 free-throw attempts per game, and with 23.1 field-goal attempts.

The Slovenian superstar is also averaging 8.8 assists, 8.7 rebounds, and 1.5 steals. The Lakers seem to be playing above their team numbers right now, and that is largely because of Dončić . LeBron James is back and healthy, and Austin Reaves is still playing well.

However, this is Dončić’s team. He’s had a few injuries this season, more so than Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić. But a healthy Dončić is just as good as the top two, and could be an MVP candidate for the next decade. At +310, Dončić offers a better return than his rivals, but the Lakers need to stay hot and be within reach of the Thunder and Nuggets.


Best NBA MVP Sleepers for 2025-26

The 2025-26 NBA MVP odds drop severely to the sleepers, and these are the best two players in that group!

Cade Cunningham (+5500)

The 21-5 Pistons shouldn’t surprise anyone anymore, and Cunningham is the engine that makes it run. The former Oklahoma State star is averaging 27.1 points, 9.2 assists, and 6.0 rebounds for the Pistons.

There is an interesting argument to be made about Cunningham’s MVP case. The top three ahead of him all have another star player they can lean on, and in some cases, two other players. But Detroit’s second-best player is probably Jalen Duren, and much of his success is due to his pick-and-roll connection with Cunningham.

I don’t know if Cunningham can catch up to the favorites in the NBA MVP odds, if they all stay healthy. But if the Pistons continue on this pace, voters will have to consider Cunningham for the award!

Victor Wembanyama (+8000)

Wembanyama returned from a month out due to a calf strain, and promptly led San Antonio to a massive upset of Oklahoma City in the NBA Cup semifinals. In just 21 minutes against the Thunder, “Wemby” had 22 points, nine rebounds, two assists, two blocks, and a steal. He also came off the bench as the Spurs try to keep him healthy.

If he stays healthy, Wembanyama could move up the NBA MVP betting odds. Potential injury is the only reason he isn’t a massive favorite in the NBA DPOY odds, although you can find great value in his price now.

He may still be a year away from being an MVP favorite. But if he stays on the floor and plays to his potential, you may get a fantastic return on his number!


2025-26 NBA MVP Prediction and Betting Pick

I’m sticking with Luka Dončić as my NBA MVP betting prediction at +310! Jokic and “SGA” have been brilliant to start the season,  as has Doncic, who simply needs to stay healthy to contend. I think the odds for the top two will continue to decrease in value as the season wears on.

But if Doncic hits the 65-game threshold and the Lakers are a top-three seed in the Western Conference, he’ll definitely get some votes. For the value alone, Luka Dončić is worth a 2025-26 NBA MVP bet!

The Bet
Luka Dončić
+310
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About the Author
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Finn Archer
Editor, Sports and Casino
Finn is a writer with 4+ years experience publishing articles on sports, iGaming, travel, and politics. He has a strong passion for soccer as both a fan and a bettor, with almost 15 years since his first wager. Since joining The Sports Geek he has been sharing his wisdom to help give you the best chance at making winning bets.
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