NBA MVP Odds and Predictions: Can SGA Repeat in 2025-26?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has essentially locked up the MVP race at this point. Sitting second in scoring while orchestrating Oklahoma City’s run to the top of the Western Conference, he’s been everything you want in an MVP candidate.

The Thunder star delivers in crunch time consistently, and unlike many offensive-focused superstars, he’s genuinely committed on the defensive end. “SGA” is a complete two-way force that voters absolutely love.

The final NBA MVP straw poll is here 👀

Full results from @TimBontemps and more than 100 NBA media members ⬇️https://t.co/gHipGT4hle pic.twitter.com/ddOor8baSf

— ESPN (@espn) April 3, 2026

The case for SGA is airtight. He’s the engine driving a young Thunder team that’s exceeded every expectation, and his clutch performances have become appointment viewing. The narrative writes itself, and barring injury, he’s crossing the finish line first.

The brutal reality is those -7000 odds offer zero betting value whatsoever. You’d need to risk $7,000 just to profit $100, which makes this purely a pride play rather than a smart investment. The implied probability is essentially 98.6%, meaning the market has already priced in his inevitable victory.

Even though SGA deserves the hardware and will almost certainly win it, tying up significant capital for minimal return doesn’t make financial sense. Sometimes the best bet is recognizing when the ship has sailed and simply enjoying watching a deserving player claim his crown.

Wembanyama at +2000 presents an intriguing, but ultimately risky proposition for NBA MVP betting. The third-year phenom is absolutely transforming San Antonio on both ends. He’s the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year and the primary catalyst behind their impressive turnaround. The talent is undeniable, and watching him dominate nightly makes it tempting to jump on these NBA MVP odds.

Victor Wembanyama needs to log one more game with 20+ minutes to qualify for end-of-season awards. pic.twitter.com/u2DnUv64QT

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) April 7, 2026

The problem is that OKC is doing better as a team, and the big mans has the lingering durability concern. Reaching the 65-game threshold isn’t guaranteed. “Wemby” suffered a bruised rib against Philadelphia on April 6, and has to play in one of San Antonio’s final three games to get to 65 games.

The narrative around Wembanyama’s impact might be getting slightly ahead of reality. He’s one of the best players in the NBA but not yet the best, at least this season.

The +10000 NBA MVP odds on Jokić tell you everything about how voters view Denver’s season right now. Sure, the big man is doing his usual statistical wizardry, putting up another triple-double season while leading the entire league in both rebounds and assists. That’s genuinely remarkable, and in most years, those numbers would have him squarely in the conversation.

Nikola Jokic is on the verge of something the NBA has never seen 👀

With 3 games left, he leads the league in BOTH rebounds and assists per game 🤯

No player in NBA history has ever led both categories… even across different seasons. pic.twitter.com/ndkKKfZxQq

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) April 8, 2026

The problem is that MVP voting has become increasingly tied to team success, and Denver’s record simply doesn’t stack up against San Antonio and Oklahoma City. When you’re trailing the conference leaders by a significant margin, voters start viewing even historic individual performances as not that impactful.

There’s also the fatigue factor working against him. Jokić already has three MVPs on his mantle, and voters historically show reluctance to hand out a fourth unless the case is absolutely overwhelming. With “SGA” putting up monster numbers on the West’s top seed, the path for Jokić becomes nearly impossible. These odds might actually be generous considering the uphill battle he faces on multiple fronts.