WNBA Betting Picks: Predictions for Monday, July 13

The Sparks (10-11) have won two straight games, so it’s tempting to give them some credit here. But look closer at who they’ve been beating, as their offense has looked good specifically against weak defenses in Chicago and Indiana. Atlanta’s (13-10) defense is a different animal, and it showed a misleading number last time out against Portland. Don’t let one bad defensive performance fool you into thinking the Dream can’t lock teams down.

YEAAAAAAAH pic.twitter.com/xRJpHYOkuF

— Atlanta Dream (@AtlantaDream) July 11, 2026

Home court matters in the WNBA, and Atlanta is a tough place to play. The Dream get a meaningful edge playing in front at home, where they are 7-4, and when you pair that with a defense that is genuinely better than its recent box score suggested, the case for laying the points gets stronger fast.

The Sparks are also dealing with significant injury concerns as Kelsey Plum and Cameron Brink are both still out. Those are two of their most impactful players. Losing that kind of firepower makes it very hard to keep pace with a quality home team over 40 minutes, even if the Sparks have been riding a short winning streak against softer competition.

Phoenix (8-16) has dropped three straight and got blown out in their most recent outing in Las Vegas, and that part is hard to ignore. But here’s the thing: this is a veteran team with real pride, and veteran squads tend to show up when the chips are down. Backing a proud, experienced team to simply keep a game within 12 points is a much easier ask than expecting them to win outright.

Minnesota (17-6) comes in at just 4-3 in their last seven games, which tells you this is not a team that’s been rolling through the competition as they were earlier in the season. The spread is simply too wide given that up-and-down form as the Lynx look like they’re just trying to get to the All-Star break.

Twelve points is a big number at WNBA betting sites, and games are tighter and possessions matter more than in the NBA. The juice on the Mercury side is -108. That’s a reasonable price to back a team with veteran leadership to avoid a second straight blowout.