2026-27 NFL Worst Record Betting Odds, Predictions, & Best Bets

Arizona Cardinals (+260)

The Arizona Cardinals enter the season as the leading favorite to finish with the NFL’s worst record following a disastrous 3-14 campaign. They finished alongside the New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans with three wins for the worst mark last year.

Arizona struggled on both sides of the ball last year, ranking among the NFL’s worst defenses after allowing 28.7 points per game while managing just 20.9 points on offense.

The offseason provided little relief, as the roster underwent significant turnover and talent erosion. Arizona parted ways with QB Kyler Murray, leaving the offense in the hands of veteran Jacoby Brissett. While he is a solid journeyman veteran, Brissett is best utilized as a backup and not a reliable starter.

LB Cody Simon picks off Jacoby Brissett pass intended for Marv. Second interception of the day pic.twitter.com/6OeZh6HTEO

— Bo Brack (@BoBrack) August 3, 2026

Free agency also brought painful departures across the core roster. The defense lost long-time starting safety Jalen Thompson and veteran defensive lineman Calais Campbell, stripping an already vulnerable unit of its top leaders and run stoppers.

Offensively, the team features intriguing explosive talent in TE Trey McBride and WR Marvin Harrison Jr., but the offense isn’t well-rounded enough to make it work well.

Lingering questions in pass protection and depth behind primary playmakers mean an injury to a key starter instantly jeopardizes the unit’s production.

While the team added guard Isaac Seumalo to patch up protection, the lack of top-to-bottom depth remains glaring. Playing six grueling games within the hyper-competitive NFC West against the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks leaves Arizona with virtually no room for error.

Without major defensive breakthroughs, their low ceiling keeps them firmly aligned with the league’s basement.

Miami Dolphins (+275)

The Miami Dolphins carry the NFL’s second-shortest odds for the worst NFL record in 2026-27. After a 7-10 season that led to a coaching change, Miami has undergone a significant reset, with a projected win total of just 4.5 games. That number might seem a little too high given the state of this roster right now.

The biggest question comes at quarterback. Miami moved on from Tua Tagovailoa and handed the starting job to Malik Willis, who has just six career NFL starts, including starting experience most recently with Green Bay. In four seasons, Willis has passed for 1,322 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions.

At one point today Malik Willis stopped Dolphins practice to call the entire offense together and deliver a message pic.twitter.com/dFa2bmXoDw

— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) August 25, 2026

He has shown flashes at times and gets a new start in Miami. Still, stepping into a full-time starting role while learning a new offense under Hafley creates significant uncertainty. It also hasn’t looked good in camp for Willis and the offense. The Dolphins also absorbed major losses elsewhere on the roster.

Trading WR Jaylen Waddle to Denver removed their top secondary weapon from the passing game, placing even more pressure on the offense to find production elsewhere. Defensively, Miami ranked just 24th in DVOA last season and are still looking for a replacement in the secondary after losing safety Jevon Holland in 2025.

The schedule offers little relief. In addition to six divisional games against the Bills, Patriots, and Jets, Miami faces a difficult non-divisional slate that includes early matchups with the 49ers, Chiefs, and Vikings.

With a new quarterback, a new coaching staff, significant personnel losses, and a defense that already struggled to create consistent results, the Dolphins have one of the thinnest margins for improvement in the league.

That combination makes Miami one of the clearest candidates to finish at the bottom of the league.

New York Jets (+500)

After another disastrous season in New York, the Jets look to avoid the basement in the NFL. The Jets have slipped from seven wins in 2022 and 2023 to five in 2024, and down to three in 2025. There isn’t much reason for Jets fans to be optimistic about this season, either.

In 2025, the Jets finished dead last in DVOA and an NFL-worst 203-point differential. The biggest change comes under center with veteran QB Geno Smith taking over the offense alongside a draft class headlined by edge rusher David Bailey. Last season, Smith was up and down with the Raiders, passing for 3,025 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions on 67.4% completions.

Geno Smith finds Jelani Woods all alone for his first TD as a Jet since 2016 🙌

NYJvsPIT on @nflnetwork
Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/3S8GVNAn1I

— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) August 21, 2026

Smith returns to the team that drafted him in 2015, where he lasted just two seasons and was classified as a bust. Not much has changed for the Jets since then, as they’re still trying to field a team that can compete for the AFC East title.

The defense also faces structural questions following mid-season marquee trades that stripped away core anchor pieces. New York suffered through a league-worst 19 turnover differential in 2025, failing to record a single interception, a historically unsustainable mark that typically rebounds. Additionally, five of their early-season losses came by one possession.

Facing a divisional schedule against Buffalo and New England, with a non-divisional slate featuring the AFC West and NFC North, New York’s lower floor keeps them firmly in the worst-record discussion. However, Smith’s presence provides more stability than the draft-focused rebuilds in Arizona and Miami.