NFL Divisional Round 2026 Betting Preview: Odds, Predictions, & Best Bets

Bills vs. Broncos Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

The Denver Broncos hit the field for the first time in the playoffs after a bye week on Wild Card Weekend. They were able to take advantage of a much-needed rest week with the Buffalo Bills on the schedule at Mile High Stadium.

Buffalo is coming off a thrilling 24-27 win over the Jaguars on the road in Jacksonville. It marked Bills’ QB Josh Allen’s first playoff win away from home. Believe it or not, this was the first Bills’ win on the road since the 1992 AFC Championship Game!

As a reward, they have to travel to Denver to play a well-rested Broncos’ defense. It isn’t going to be easy against a physical and athletic unit.

The Broncos lead the NFL, yielding an average of 278.2 yards per game in the regular season. Additionally, they are fourth with 18.3 points against per matchup.

“Strip-sack, the ball is free!”#AsISawIt x @KOAColorado pic.twitter.com/Fbbv1qRjuD

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) January 6, 2026

Getting pressure and not allowing Allen to get rolling on the ground is the key to defeating the Bills. Fortunately, for the Broncos, they have the best pass rush in the league. They recorded four sacks per game for a considerable advantage, as they’re 0.6 sacks better than the next closest team.

No other team provides as much of a mismatch for the Bills as the Broncos. And while the Bills’ defense stepped up against the Jaguars, I’m not so optimistic that the effort versus the run will be as sharp. Buffalo ranks 28th in the NFL, giving up 137.2 yards per game.

Following a tough, physical game in Jacksonville, I expect their defense to be much softer. If the Broncos can get the backfield rolling, Denver’s Bo Nix should begin to hit his favorite targets downfield.

As an underdog, the Broncos are 4-0-1 against the spread (ATS). Also, they are 2-0-0 ATS as home underdogs at Mile High. With the pass rush getting to Allen, expect the Broncos to pull out a nail-biter in Denver.

After losing to the Bills in a blowout last year, I recommend backing the Broncos to find revenge as one of your best 2026 NFL Divisional Round picks!

49ers vs. Seahawks Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

In a gutsy effort in Philadelphia, the beaten and battered San Francisco 49ers upset the Eagles as 5.5-point underdogs at Lincoln Financial Field. Despite a first-half injury to TE George Kittle, the 49ers overcame the deficit for a 23-19 victory.

It won’t get any easier on the road against the No. 1 seeded Seattle Seahawks, but the 49ers’ spirit shouldn’t be underestimated.

I expect head coach Kyle Shanahan to have the 49ers well-prepared for a matchup against a familiar divisional rival. More importantly, defensive coordinator Robert Saleh will have the 49ers’ defense in top order again. The defense deserves a big gold medal for the work they did against the Eagles.

The Super Bowl champions’ QB, Jalen Hurts, was limited to 168 yards passing, while WR DeVonta Smith’s 70 yards was the most receiving yards. They did it by generating just one sack, as Saleh’s strategy to confuse the Eagles’ passing game was on point.

On the other end, the 49ers’ offense couldn’t have played much worse, with fans calling for Mac Jones to replace Brock Purdy throughout the game.

Playing well overall on the road isn’t anything new to the 49ers. At 8-2 ATS on the road, they are one of the best teams in the NFL playing away from home. Furthermore, they’ve gone 9-4-0 ATS against the NFC in 2025-26. If the defense brings the same energy as last week and Purdy plays marginally better, expect them to be competitive in Seattle.

Remember that the 49ers went into Seattle and beat the Seahawks in Week 1, 17-13. It’s going to be tough to repeat this time around. Kittle’s absence will loom large, but the defense should play well enough again to keep it a close game on the scoreboard. As long as RB Christian McCaffrey is on the field, the 49ers are always going to have a shot.

In short, I suggest playing the 49ers as greater than a touchdown underdog for your 2026 NFL Divisional betting picks. They are unlikely to win, but keeping it close is certainly on the cards.

Rams vs. Bears Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

After surviving against the Carolina Panthers, the Los Angeles Rams head to Chicago for a matchup against a confident Bears’ squad. The Rams were nearly shocked as double-digit favorites on the road against Bryce Young’s Panthers. However, they ultimately composed themselves to fight back for a 34-31 win.

Young was able to make big plays to keep his team in it but couldn’t come up with a clutch moment in the fourth quarter. The Rams’ secondary, which has been questionable throughout the season, didn’t play especially well. When it mattered the most, they either gave up a big play or committed an obvious penalty to give the Panthers a fresh set of downs.

They rank 20th in the league, yielding an average of 218.6 passing yards per game. With Bears’ QB Caleb Williams playing with loads of confidence right now, I expect him to find success against the Rams’ secondary. Williams passed for 361 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, including a pressure drive in the final minutes to take the lead.

The sophomore quarterback is in the midst of a strong campaign for the Bears. He’s passed for 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Williams’ mobility makes him a tough quarterback to prepare for as well. He rushed for 388 yards and three scores on the ground in the regular season.

The Bears clawed back from a 21-3 deficit at halftime for a 31-27 victory. Confidence is at an all-time high in Chicago right now, and I fully expect Williams to keep on firing against the Rams at Soldier Field. This is a team that seems to thrive in an underdog role and shouldn’t be too overwhelmed by the moment against the Rams at home.

The highest-graded play by any QB this weekend:

Caleb Williams fourth down conversion 🧊pic.twitter.com/lniH0V76ZH

— PFF (@PFF) January 12, 2026

In 2025-26, the Bears went 6-3 ATS at home overall. As a home underdog, they were 2-0-0 ATS. Additionally, first-year head coach Ben Johnson’s squad is 8-3-0 ATS in games against teams outside of the NFC North. Conversely, the Rams are just 4-3-0 ATS as a favorite on the road this season.

The Bears’ secondary leaves some concern, as Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford should find passing lanes. In other words, this has the makeup of a high-scoring game that should eclipse 51 points.

I recommend the Bears to cover the spread and the over as some of the best NFL Divisional Round picks!

Texans vs. Patriots Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

In what could be the most physical game in the NFL Divisional Round, the Houston Texans travel to Foxborough for a highly anticipated matchup against the New England Patriots. The Texans advanced to the next round after pulling away from the Pittsburgh Steelers in the fourth quarter.

They scored 23 points behind a suffocating defensive effort against Aaron Rodgers for a 30-6 win. Rodgers was sacked four times and held to 146 yards with an interception. With the victory, the Texans have won 12 consecutive games. Their most recent loss came on October 20 versus the Seahawks!

BIG MAN TOUCHDOWN 🔥

Texans force the strip-sack fumble on Rodgers and run it in for the TD 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Ie1DwfuF4c

— ESPN (@espn) January 13, 2026

The defense has been the catalyst for the Texans this season. They rank first in the league, allowing an average of 16.7 points per game. It’s a well-balanced defense that is equally strong against the pass and run. The Texans are fifth against the pass, with 181.3 passing yards per game, and fourth against the run, conceding an average of 92 rushing yards.

Patriots’ MVP candidate Drake Maye is a fantastic quarterback and impressed again on Wild Card Weekend against the Chargers. However, he hasn’t played against a defense like DeMeco Ryans’ unit. Maye will come up with some big plays, but I expect the Texans to limit him enough to keep this game close.

Texans’ QB C.J. Stroud has been efficient since December. He’s passed for nine touchdowns and two interceptions in the last six games. The Patriots’ defense has been active in Mike Vrabel’s first season as the head coach. That said, Stroud has been focused and taking care of the football. If he remains steady, the Texans can win this game outright.

It’s hard not to take the points with the Texans’ defense in what should be a game that goes down to the wire. This one could very well be decided by a point or two, so the points come at a premium. Consider backing the Texans as one of the best NFL Divisional Round picks.