Alien Betting Odds: What Happens After the Latest File Drop?

Are We Getting a Confirmation That Aliens Exist?

We could be getting closer to an answer to the question, “Do aliens exist?”. On May 8, 2026, the Trump administration released new files regarding the existence of aliens.

Some believe this is a distraction from other things going on in the government, while others feel that Trump has delivered on something that past administrations have not. Either way, it has opened up some interesting betting markets.

What Color Will the First Confirmed Alien Be?

• Green (+100)
• Yellow (+500)
• Black (+600)
• Blue (+600)
• Purple (+600) 
• White (+800)

Green (+100) is the big favorite for the alien betting prop of “What color will the first confirmed alien be”. We’ve seen many iterations of aliens in movies and on television, and they’ve all been green, which is likely why it’s favored by such a big margin.

Which Country Will Be Invaded First By Aliens?

• United States (+1600)
• North Korea (+2000)
• Denmark/Greenland (+2500)
• Russia (+3300)
• Canada (+3300) 
• China (+4000)

Would the aliens target America first? The bookies seem to think so, giving the USA a 5.9% implied probability, just ahead of North Korea at 4.8%. If that’s the case, could the two rivals put their beef aside and team up against the aliens?

• Elon Musk (+2500)
• Adam Silver (+3300)
• Kanye West (+4000)
• Mark Zuckerberg (+5000)
• Joe Rogan (+6600)
• Tom Cruise (+6600)
• Victor Wembanyama (+10000)
• Stephen Spielberg (+12500)
• Signourney Weaver (+12500)

Elon Musk (+2500)

The tech CEO with relatively high odds of being confirmed as an alien lifeform this year is Elon Musk. He is the wealthiest person in the world and is allegedly from South Africa.

Musk dominated the news cycle in 2025, and continues to in 2026, albeit a little less. It started when his Department of Government Efficiency began dismantling the US government. Also, his bromance with President Donald Trump ended in a very public feud.

"I am an Alien, I keep telling people I'm an alien but nobody believes me." 🤣

-Elon Musk pic.twitter.com/lQGQ82G7SF

— SMX 🇺🇸 (@iam_smx) April 5, 2025

The rich have always played a role in US politics, so that alone does not confirm Musk is from outer space. However, his odd mannerisms and wild story overall raise several red flags.

If he is an alien, what better place to hide than in the tech industry? After all, he could pass off his space technology as new inventions.

Musk himself has joked about being an alien. The best jokes often have a lot of truth in them, so perhaps we should believe the tech billionaire when he says he is not human. After all, being an alien would explain why Musk is so invested in leaving Earth to colonize Mars.

Top-rated entertainment betting sites list Musk as the +2500 favorite to be revealed as an alien in 2026 with a 3.8% implied probability at online sportsbooks.

Kanye West (+4000)

Another celebrity whose odd behavior has raised concerns in recent years is Kanye West. The talented musician was an icon in the 2000s and 2010s.

However, West’s public image has taken multiple hits recently. In addition to making anti-Semitic comments, praising a certain Austrian painter with a moustache, and calling slavery a “choice,” the rapper has exhibited some truly bizarre behavior. Some of his odd public stunts include:

• • Changing his name multiple times
  • Running for President twice
  • Covering his face in public
  • Getting $850k permanent titanium dental implants

Kanye West does a new fitcheck where reveals his favorite meal & more 😂🔥

“I’m Ye, I’m From Mars” pic.twitter.com/DSzdDJlL3q

— NFR Podcast (@nfr_podcast) February 23, 2024

Ye and his current wife, Bianca Censori, have sparked controversy due to the latter wearing little to no clothing at public events, including the 2025 Grammy Awards.

Much of West’s behavior could be explained by untreated mental illness. Ye admitted to being diagnosed with bipolar disorder, but said publicly in 2018 that he stopped taking his prescribed psych medication. In 2025, West also announced he was diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder, but said he is not taking the medication for that, either.

Maybe West is unmedicated, or perhaps human drugs simply do not work on alien lifeforms. Like Musk, Ye is listed at 40-1 odds to be confirmed as an alien this year. Interestingly, also like Musk, Kanye has already admitted he is an alien.

Mark Zuckerberg (+5000)

Mark Zuckerberg’s rise to fame was tied directly to his work with the social media platform Facebook. Zuckerberg helped create the site while in college, and it has grown into one of the most popular social media companies in the years since.

However, it has not been a smooth ride for Zuckerberg. He has been called to testify in front of Congress multiple times over the years.

Mark Zuckerberg's system malfunctioned, says "I was Human" pic.twitter.com/Un0aKZuXKm

— Insane Reality Leaks (@InsaneRealitys) October 27, 2023

Some of the Meta CEO’s appearances include:

• • 2018 – Testified regarding Facebook’s use of users’ personal data
  • 2020 – Zuckerberg was one of three CEOs who testified regarding anti-conservative censorship
  • 2021 – He testified regarding Facebook’s role in spreading hate speech and misinformation
  • 2024 – Zuckerberg and other tech CEOs testified in a hearing on child safety and social media platforms

Zuckerberg’s frequent appearances in Congressional hearings in recent years are not the issue. However, his behavior during the hearings caused many to wonder if the Meta CEO was from another planet. Zuckerberg’s other public appearances, including podcasts, have also raised questions about his planet of origin.

Despite his best efforts to improve his image, many still doubt that Zuckerberg is originally from Earth.

Tom Cruise (+6600)

Tom Cruise is one of the biggest action stars of the last four decades. His acting skills and insistence on performing his own death-defying stunts have made him one of the most popular actors in the US.

However, like the other celebs in this betting market, Cruise’s actions off the big screen over the years have been nothing short of odd.

Cruise’s infamous couch-jumping episode on Oprah was just the beginning of his odd behavior. His advocacy for the Church of Scientology has also raised eyebrows.

Katie Holmes is warning her ex Tom Cruise's obsession with Scientology will damage his new 'girlfriend' Ana de Armas. Click to read more👇 https://t.co/o7dtart3Hw

— Radar Online (@radar_online) June 12, 2025

Celebrities with strong ties to their respective faiths are common in the US. However, Scientology is among the most secretive religions. What we know about the faith could be the key to winning this novelty betting market.

Xenu, also called Xemu, is one of the chief figures in Scientology and an extraterrestrial. The faith also believes in thetans, or immortal spirits of the aliens Xenu brought with him to Earth billions of years ago.

With that in mind, who better to serve as the poster boy of Scientology than an alien?

Cruise has been one of, if not the, most public faces of Scientology. His integration into the faith also coincided with a major popularity boom of the religion, especially among Hollywood elites. If Cruise is from another planet, it could also explain why he is insistent on filming a movie in space.

Donald Trump (+100000)

Arguably, the most interesting alien betting option on the board is none other than US President Donald Trump.

The President must confirm that the celebrity in question is an alien for this bet to win. Since Trump is president, he must admit to being an alien for this wager to hit. Despite that obstacle, the president is still an intriguing option in this betting market.

Trump has been a popular figure in the media for decades. His image as a businessman has remained despite over half a dozen bankruptcies. Over the last 10 years, he has built a cult-like MAGA following that has resulted in him winning the presidency, twice.

Trump is as orange as he's ever been today pic.twitter.com/RFkYi6sVBf

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 19, 2025

Having the financial support of other aliens would certainly explain how, time and again, Trump is able to avoid the worst consequences for his actions. Being financially supported by his fellow extraterrestrials could also explain why Trump refuses to release his tax returns.

Being from outer space would also explain his weirder fashion choices, such as his overly long ties and his preferred shade of spray tan. In theory, orange skin and bad suits could be the popular fashion on Trump’s home planet.

Finally, being an alien could explain Trump’s otherworldly healing abilities that allowed him to grow back his ear after last year’s assassination attempt.

If you are looking to double down on the idea that aliens are running the US, you can also bet on the President to be abducted by aliens. He is the favorite there at +2000, ahead of Musk (+3300), and singer Taylor Swift (+4000). In that market, you’ll also find actors Cruise (+5000) and Will Smith (+5000), along with NBA superstar LeBron James (+5000). The way James is playing at 41 years, him being an alien would explain everything!

• Elon Musk (+2500)
• Mark Zuckerberg (+5000)
• Tom Cruise (+6600)