Are you ready with your 2024 Tony Awards predictions before the biggest night on Broadway? If you’re not, I’m here to help by dissecting the Tonys betting odds and sharing my best bets for the 77th edition of the awards!
The ceremony honors the best performances and plays on Broadway over the last year. Winning a Tony is the highest accolade a member of Broadway productions can receive.
The top entertainment betting sites have released a wide range of 2024 Tony Awards betting odds for the ceremony on June 16. Below, check out my complete analysis, predictions, and best picks!
Full Tony Awards Predictions For 2024
Note: All Tonys odds in this post are courtesy of BetUS.
| AWARD | PREDICTION |
|---|---|
| Leading Actor In A Musical | Jonathan Groff: Merrily We Roll Along (-300) |
| Leading Actress In A Musical | Maleah Joi Moon: Hell’s Kitchen (+250) |
| Leading Actor In A Play | Leslie Odom Jr.: Purlie Victorious (-150) |
| Leading Actress In A Play | Sarah Paulson: Appropriate (-300) |
| Best Musical | Hell’s Kitchen (+175) |
| Best Play | Stereophonic (-300) |
Currently, BetUS has Tony Awards 2024 odds for six categories. Per the latest prices, Stereophonic (-300), Sarah Paulson (-300), and Jonathan Groff (-300) are expected to be the big winners.
All three nominees have -300 odds to win, which translates to an implied probability of 75%. Let’s dive into each category and flush out the best Tony Award picks!
Tony Awards 2024 Leading Actor In A Musical Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet
| ACTOR | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Groff: Merrily We Roll Along | -300 |
| Eddie Redmayne: Cabaret | +500 |
| Brian d’Arcy James: Days of Wine & Roses | +600 |
| Brody Grant: The Outsiders | +600 |
| Dorian Harewood: The Notebook | +800 |
Will Groff roll to a win for Leading Actor in a Musical at the Tony Awards? The odds say so, but he still faces stiff competition from Eddie Redmayne. Still, I believe oddsmakers got it right at -300 odds.
Groff likely has a slightly better than a 75% chance of winning Leading Actor. He and Daniel Radcliffe combine for an incredible display of showmanship in the revival of Stephen Sondheim’s 1981 musical.
Sondheim passed away in 2021, so he wasn’t able to watch the latest iteration at the Alvin Theatre. The cast and Groff and Radcliffe specifically would make him proud. The musical highlights the rocky relationship between three friends over the last two decades. Barring a huge upset, Groff should have the Tony for Leading Actor in a Musical in the bag. My own Tony Award odds have him at -500, so there is a little value, but don’t empty the bankroll at -300!
Tony Awards 2024 Leading Actress In A Musical Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet
| ACTRESS | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Kelli O’Hara: Days of Wine & Roses | +200 |
| Maleah Joi Moon: Hell’s Kitchen | +250 |
| Gayle Rankin: Cabaret | +300 |
| Eden Espinosa: Lempicka | +320 |
| Maryann Plunkett: The Notebook | +350 |
The Leading Actress in a Musical odds are considerably more open than for the actors. With Kelli O’Hara a +200 favorite, she has just an implied chance to win of 33.3%.
Maleah Joi Moon is right on her heels, with an implied probability of 28.6%. I expect one of these two to win this category, even if all contestants are close in the odds.
Joi Moon, who leads in the highly acclaimed Hell’s Kitchen musical, should have a great chance. Hell’s Kitchen has received 13 nominations, including Joi Moon for Leading Actress!
Handpicked by Alicia Keys to star in Hell’s Kitchen, Joi Moon puts on a big performance in Hell’s Kitchen. As an aspiring 17-year-old, Ali, played by her, realizes her full potential as an artist. There is tremendous betting value at +250 on Joi Moon to win Leading Actress on her first Tony nomination, so that’s my pick.
Tony Awards 2024 Leading Actor In A Play Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet
| ACTOR | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Leslie Odom Jr.: Purlie Victorious | -150 |
| Jeremy Strong: An Enemy of the People | +300 |
| William Jackson Harper: Uncle Vanya | +500 |
| Liev Schreiber: Doubt | +500 |
| Michael Stuhbarg: Patriots | +800 |
Leslie Odom Jr. is the top favorite to win the Tony for Leading Actor in a Play. At -150, the oddsmakers give him a 60% chance to take home the prize and all the glory.
Odom Jr.’s closest competition is Jeremy Strong at +300 odds, who currently carries a 25% probability. That represents a significant shift in the price from the top favorite to the closest challenger.
The 42-year-old from Queens is in the driver’s seat for Leading Actor in a Play. In my opinion, Odom Jr., who made his debut on Broadway in 1998, should be an even heavier favorite!
The three-act comedic play is driven by Odom Jr., who starred in the record-breaking Hamilton. He is firmly entrenched in a role that suits his strengths in Purlie Victorious as a traveling preacher. Back Odom Jr. to win Leading Actor in a Play with confidence at -150 odds.
Tony Awards 2024 Leading Actress In A Play Odds, Predictions, And Best Bet
| ACTRESS | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Sarah Paulson: Appropriate | -300 |
| Rachel McAdams: Mary Jane | +550 |
| Amy Ryan: Doubt | +600 |
| Jessica Lange: Mother Play | +600 |
| Betsy Aidem: Prayer for the French Republic | +800 |
Sarah Paulson’s role as Toni Lafayette in Appropriate has earned her the best betting odds for Tony Awards’ Leading Actress in a Play category. At -300, the artist has a strong chance to reel in the Tony.
However, I don’t see any value in backing Paulson at this price. She probably wins, but it’s likely closer than the odds suggest. Jessica Lange and Rachel McAdams have strong cases to make, as well.
Rather than betting on Sarah Paulson, I recommend taking a flier on Rachel McAdams in Mary Jane if you must. That being said, I am not placing any money on the razor-thin close call in this category!
Tony Awards 2024 Best Musical Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet
| MUSICAL | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Hell’s Kitchen | +175 |
| Suffs | +200 |
| Illinois | +300 |
| Water for Elephants | +450 |
| The Outsiders | +475 |
Alicia Keys’ Hell’s Kitchen is favored to win the Tony for Best Musical on betting apps. The musical is based on Kristoffer Diaz’s book, while Keys is responsible for the music. At +175, Hell’s Kitchen has a 36.4% implied chance to finish on top!
With Joi Moon as the lead, it all comes together rather nicely. There is something for everyone in Hell’s Kitchen regardless of preference in music. The jukebox musical also appeals to young and old.
According to New York Theater Guide, the musical is based loosely on Keys’ childhood growing up in Manhattan. Her role behind the scenes obviously brings Hell’s Kitchen to the next level! Additionally, the chemistry between Ali and her mother is impressive.
Suffs has a chance to sneak in for a win, but Hell’s Kitchen at +175 is too nice of a price to ignore. With this in mind, Hell’s Kitchen is a great bet to win the Tony Award for Best Musical.
Tony Awards 2024 Best Play Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet
| AWARD | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Stereophonic | -300 |
| Mother Play | +500 |
| Prayer for the French Republic | +500 |
| Jaja’s African Hair Braiding | +700 |
| Mary Jane | +800 |
Stereophonic is the odds-on favorite to win the Tony Award for Best Play. As a -300 favorite, the play written by David Adjmi has the best probability of winning at 75%!
Aside from Stereophonic, Prayer for the French Republic might be able to jump into contention. Nevertheless, this category is the favorite’s to lose at the 2024 Tony Awards.
On Broadway World, Stereophonic has a rating of 9.5/10 from critics! While reviews have been mixed from audiences, Broadway experts have fallen in love with the play.
Stereophonic centers on a band on the edge of breaking out and making it big in 1976. With original music from Arcade Fire’s Will Butler — based loosely on Fleetwood Mac’s record of Rumors — the play is hitting all the right chords with the pundits.
I expect them to vote overwhelmingly in favor of Stereophonic, so this is the most likely winner by a wide margin.
Where To Bet On The Tony Awards 2024?
Now that I’ve made my Tony Awards 2024 predictions, where is the best place to bet? As one of the top online sportsbooks for entertainment and awards show odds, BetUS is my recommended option.
BetUS offers Tony Awards odds on all the major categories, including Best Play and Best Musical.
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