79th Tony Awards Betting Preview: Winner Odds, Predictions, & Best Bets

Leading Actor in a Play Odds and Prediction

The race for Leading Actor is essentially a showdown between John Lithgow and Nathan Lane, who appear to be the only contenders with a realistic chance of hearing their names called. While Lane is positioned as the underdog, he’s still firmly in the mix with a 40.8% implied probability.

That said, I’m confident in Lithgow’s chances of winning Leading Actor. In my view, Lithgow should be an even stronger favorite than his current price of -175 suggests. I would’ve priced him as a -250 favorite myself.

In other words, there’s value on Lithgow winning for his role as Roald Dahl in Giant. In the film, the acclaimed children’s author faces backlash for anti-Semitic remarks that threaten his legacy and career, while the story follows his publicist and family as they try to persuade him to issue a public apology.

'Giant' Broadway Review: John Lithgow as a Venomous Roald Dahl Animates a Staggering Production https://t.co/npZ1lh0b4F

— Variety (@Variety) March 24, 2026

Casting Lithgow was the perfect move for the play. He carries the production and has received rave reviews in Giant. Lane is impressive in his own regard, but Lithgow stands out and in the driver’s seat. So, I recommend betting on Lithgow as one of the best Tony Awards picks.

Best Musical Odds and Prediction

Running at the Nederlander Theatre, Schmigadoon! is heading into the Tony Awards with some optimism. The musical comedy features a well-known cast, with Alex Brightman playing Josh Skinner and Sara Chase in the role of Melissa Gimble.

Considered a parody of other popular productions, such as Oklahoma! and The Music Man, Schmigadoon! follows a disgruntled couple who are trapped in a Golden Age musical world from the 1940s and 1950s. Faced with the local residents, the couple are unable to leave until they find love.

Based on a TV series, it’s a fun musical that isn’t meant to be taken seriously but still delivers an underlying meaning. According to Show Score, Schmigadoon! is a hit with a score of 92% from 217 reviews. There is a lot of energy on the stage and has the ability to connect with those in attendance. Expect that success to translate at the Tonys on Sunday, June 7.

While it’s an expensive price at -300, Schmigadoon! should have the clear upper hand over its competition. With that in mind, consider a play for your best Tony Awards betting picks.

Leading Actress in a Musical Odds and Prediction

Although Caissie Levy is a heavy favorite to win the Leading Actress in a Musical award, there is an opening for Titanique’s Marla Mindelle to win. The odds are against Mindelle at +350, but I have confidence in the vote being closer than suggested by oddsmakers.

Mindelle is superb and the clear standout star of the musical. I don’t believe Titanique is going to go home empty handed, and Mindelle likely has the best chance to score a major award. Her strong vocals and comedic portrayal of Celine Dion works well.

Without Mindelle’s effort, the musical would’ve been unlikely to receive as much attention as it has at this point. There is no denying that Levy has a big opportunity, but at -700, there is no value in what should be a close call.

So, at +350, Mindelle is one of the best Tony Awards 2026 picks.