The betting odds for the 2026 World Cup semifinal between France and Spain tip Les Bleus as favorites to win this all-European clash and move onto their third straight, and fifth overall, World Cup final.
I explore the latest France vs. Spain odds, analyze both sides, and share my predictions and best bets for Tuesday’s World Cup semifinal matchup.
France vs. Spain Betting Odds and Lines
Here’s an overview of the main betting markets for the match between France and Spain:
| OUTCOME | ODDS |
|---|---|
| France to advance | -150 |
| Spain to advance | +130 |
| France to win | +135 |
| Spain to win | +220 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -112 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | -108 |
With two of the tournament’s top teams meeting, there is plus-money odds available on both France and Spain to win in regulation. But when it comes to advancing to the World Cup Final, France is the clear odds-on favorite at -150 odds, giving them an implied probability of 60%.
Oddsmakers are split on the total with the price on both Over 2.5 and Under 2.5 goals nearly identical.
You can find the odds above and 250+ more markets at Lucky Rebel, one of the best options for targeting the World Cup.
France: Mbappé Scores Again and Les Bleus Stay Perfect
After an opening five games that mostly saw France brush aside opponents with relative ease, it was more of the same in the quarterfinals against Morocco.
The sixth-ranked Atlas Lions held France off for a while and dodged a bullet with Kylian Mbappé missing an early penalty. But the dam eventually broke with Mbappé scoring in the 60’ minute and Ousmane Dembélé immediately after in the 66’ to take a 2-0 lead that France would hold onto the rest of the way.
France is now 6-0-0 and have outscored opponents 16-2 in the tournament.
Mbappé leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals and three assists, to go with 30 shots and 19 on target, ranking second and first in those shot categories. He’s become the first player to score eight goals in back-to-back World Cups and now has an incredible 101 goal involvements in 104 career appearances with France. Meanwhile, Michael Olise leads all players in assists in the tournament with five.
As it stands in the adidas Golden Boot race 🌟#FIFAWorldCup pic.twitter.com/PcMDs0iy5j
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) July 12, 2026
Counting all matches, France has now won seven straight, to go with only three defeats in 25. With so much firepower across their top line, Les Bleus have scored multiple goals in 14 of their past 16 and had scored three or more in eight of ten before the 1-0 Paraguay match.
However, one of those three defeats came to this Spain side in the 2025 Nations League Final, where La Roja won 5-4.
Spain: Finally Concede, But Into Second World Cup Semifinal
Spain went 2-1-0 in group play, scoring five and conceding none. They kept that spotless defensive record alive through the Round of 32 and Round of 16 by beating Austria 3-0 and Portugal 1-0, with a late 91’ minute Mikel Merino goal.
In the quarterfinals against Belgium, they took a 1-0 lead, however, their goal was finally breached after 649 minutes when the Red Devils levelled the score at 1-1.
Still tied in the second half, Belgium keeper Thibaut Courtois went out injured midway through the half which possibly proved to be a deciding factor as backup Senne Lammens could’ve done better on the eventual winning goal.
Dominating the play, but creating very few serious chances, defender Pau Cubarsí decided to take a crack on goal and it worked. Merino, who had just come on as a sub, pounced on the rebound to restore Spain’s lead in the 88’ minute and claim the 2-1 win.
Is there a bigger big-game for Spain than Mikel Merino?
⚽ 119' winner vs 🇩🇪(EURO 2024 QF)
⚽ 90+3' equaliser vs 🇳🇱 (Nations League QF)
⚽ vs 🇫🇷 (Nations League SF)
⚽ 90+1' winner vs 🇵🇹(World Cup Ro16)
⚽ 88' winner vs 🇧🇪 (World Cup QF)Clutch.pic.twitter.com/ft8z3FoWBc https://t.co/vImu7mzx8h
— Football Performances (@FCPerformances) July 11, 2026
Once again it was a late winner for Spain, and another second-half goal, a place where nine of their 11 goals have been scored.
Defense has been the bigger story, finally conceding their first goal this tournament after almost five-and-a-half games. They’ve also not given up more than six shots in any of their past eight World Cup games going back into the last tournament. Looking back over their most recent ten matches, they’ve only allowed three goals in ten games.
Overall, La Roja is undefeated in regulation in 36 games, with their last competitive loss being 46 games back in March 2023.
France vs. Spain Predictions and Best Bets
Today’s France vs. Spain’s predictions look tough to call between two of the top teams in the tournament. Spain’s defense and possession are hard to break through, but they’ve not faced a team of France’s caliber yet. It’s also fair to say La Roja’s offense hasn’t quite gotten into top gear.
Meanwhile, there aren’t many holes to pick on the French side and Mbappé has been the best player in the tournament. Both teams look too strong to not score (Both Teams to Score -150), but as the team that’s looked the best this tournament, I’m siding with France and Mbappé to advance in my World Cup picks.
Jack Gilbert's View
Here’s what our soccer expert podcaster Jack Gilbert had to say about this match.
Spain 1-1 France (Spain on Pens)
Spain 1-1 France (Spain on Pens): The best attack of the tournament versus the best defence of the tournament is tight. France’s attack won’t be as effective as it has been throughout the tournament and Mbappé’s goal to be cancelled out late on by a Merino equalizer. Penalties go to the wire and Spain to shock everyone by winning on pens narrowly.
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