NCAA Tournament 2026 First Round Betting Preview: Predictions, Odds, & Best Bets

High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers: High Point +10 (-110)

The Wisconsin Badgers find themselves in the classic NCAA Tournament danger zone: the dreaded 5 vs. 12 matchup. Since 1985, No. 12 seeds have pulled off upsets at a 35.6% rate, with 57 outright wins, and High Point has a real chance to become the next Cinderella story.

If you like three-pointers and up-tempo offense, this game should be right up your alley. Both teams love to fire from deep. Wisconsin ranks third in the NCAA with 32.6 three-point attempts per game, while High Point isn’t far behind, taking 26.3 per contest, good for 66th nationally. They’re third overall, with 90 points scored per game.

The biggest concern for Wisconsin is that High Point plays an extremely clean brand of basketball. The Panthers rarely beat themselves. They rank fifth in offensive turnover percentage, which is a critical trait for underdogs looking to spring an upset.

Take care of the ball, don’t get rattled early, and you give yourself a chance. They also force a ton of turnovers, as High Point ranks first with 10.4 steals per game – one of only two teams forcing more than 10.

High Point checks those boxes. The Panthers should be able to limit turnovers and generate quality looks at the rim. They rank inside the top 50 nationally in effective field goal percentage at 54.7%.

On the other end, Wisconsin’s defense is far less impressive, sitting just 191st in defensive effective field goal percentage. That’s a stark contrast to High Point, which comes in at 33rd in defensive effective field goal percentage.

Defending the three-point line will be another key area where the Panthers can hold their own. Wisconsin’s offense is dangerous from deep, but High Point is well-equipped to contest those looks, ranking 64th in the country in three-point defense. That should be enough to at least disrupt the Badgers’ rhythm from beyond the arc.

Longest active win streak in the country🔥#GoHPU x #OnTheProwl pic.twitter.com/uUKpugp0jX

— HPU Men's Basketball (@HPUMBB) March 12, 2026

Momentum also favors High Point. The Panthers enter the tournament riding the longest winning streak in the country at 14 straight victories, capped by a dominant 91-76 win over Winthrop to claim the Big South title. They arrive with confidence and the profile of a team capable of making things very uncomfortable for a higher seed.

Whether they complete the upset is uncertain, but catching +10 points with High Point looks like a sharp angle and one of the best bets for the 2026 First Round March Madness odds.

VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: VCU +2 (-105)

There are a lot of teams North Carolina could have drawn and I’d feel good about their chances. However, No. 11 VCU is not one of the opponents that the Tar Heels would have liked to see in the opening round.

Phil Martelli Jr.’s squad won’t give North Carolina an easy time in this matchup. They are a veteran-laden team and entering the NCAA Tournament with plenty of steam behind them. The Rams enter on a six-game winning streak and victories in 16 of their previous 17 games.

Their only mishap is against Saint Louis, another A10 school with plenty of upset potential in the NCAA Tournament. With Caleb Wilson out of the tournament, the Tar Heels are likely in for a battle down to the wire. Wilson was the heart and soul of this team, and it deprives UNC of a multi-talented big man.

He led the Tar Heels in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks per game. The freshman forward was also second in assists, so they lose a passing big as well. More pressure will be placed on the Tar Heels’ guards, which plays into VCU’s hands.

made for this. pic.twitter.com/NvuBRmAr3y

— VCU Basketball (@VCU_Hoops) March 15, 2026

VCU’s success had been predicated on tough guards for over a decade now. That hasn’t changed this season, as the Rams have captured 7.4 steals per game. Look for VCU to generate plenty of pressure to put North Carolina in tough spots. Without Wilson running the floor, there is a lot less for them to worry about.

The Rams have had more success on the perimeter from three, too. VCU ranks 35th in three-point shooting, while North Carolina is just 153rd at under 35%. All things considered, North Carolina is on upset alert, and as only a two-point favorite, oddsmakers don’t see this as a lopsided matchup between the No. 11 and No. 6 seeds.

So, I suggest backing VCU for your NCAA Tournament First Round picks.

Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs: Saint Louis +2.5 (-115)

Another A10 program putting a team from a top-tier conference on upset alert is the Saint Louis Billikens. Despite a 70-69 loss to Dayton in the A10 Tournament, Saint Louis is a dangerous team that can absolutely win this matchup outright.

Saint Louis heads into the NCAA Tournament as one of the most dangerous offenses in the nation. They rank in the top 10 with 87.8 points per game and third overall in effective field goal percentage at 59.8%. This team can shoot the lights out from three, too.

It’s time to countdown the Top 10 Plays from the Regular Season!

#6 – Trey Green’s 7 3PM against the Dayton Flyers on January 30th!@LouFuszAuto pic.twitter.com/golHVsiLW3

— Saint Louis Men's Basketball (@SaintLouisMBB) March 11, 2026

The Billikens are third in the nation, averaging a 40.5% three-point percentage. Saint Louis has six players on their roster shooting 40% or better from downtown this season. This is going to put substantial pressure on a Georgia squad that has had issues defending on the perimeter. The Bulldogs are 108th in team defensive efficiency, and 166th against the three.

Meanwhile, Saint Louis sits 19th in team defensive efficiency and are one of the best teams defending against the three. The Billikens are in the top 10, yielding a 30% three-point rate. In other words, the matchup sets up pretty well for Saint Louis in this spot.

The way I see it, the Billikens are one of the best March Madness First Round bets.

Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats: Santa Clara +4.5 (-115)

Mark Pope’s Kentucky Wildcats could be in for a tough test against a scrappy, confident Santa Clara squad that matches up well with them. The Broncos are long, athletic, and comfortable scoring from all over the floor.

Most importantly, they’re one of the best-coached teams in the country with Herb Sendek on the sideline. They are also full of motivation after going to the Big Dance for the first time since Steve Nash was on the roster in 1996.

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1996, THE SANTA CLARA BRONCOS ARE GOING BACK TO MARCH MADNESS

The reaction from inside Leavey Center pic.twitter.com/nHK5hjec0f

— Thomas Dunn (@Thomasdunn24) March 15, 2026

Santa Clara’s length is likely to bother Kentucky. It’s a big reason the Broncos posted an impressive 54.6% effective field goal percentage this season, ranking 53rd nationally. Overall, they sit 32nd in scoring at 82.8 points per game.

You can argue that those numbers came against West Coast Conference opponents, but there are several quality programs in that league, and Santa Clara handled themselves well.

On the other side, the hard-nosed defense Kentucky fans grew used to under John Calipari just hasn’t carried over. The Wildcats rank 152nd in scoring defense, allowing 73.8 points per game. That leaves plenty of potential openings for the Broncos’ offense to exploit.

Momentum isn’t on Kentucky’s side, either. The Wildcats have dropped three of their last five and have consistently struggled against teams with size that can rebound and finish through contact. Note that the Broncos are 20th in offensive rebounding, with 11.2 per game.

There’s little reason to believe Pope’s group suddenly solves those issues here, making this a dangerous matchup for Kentucky. Santa Clara is fully capable of throwing Kentucky out of a rhythm, too, as they’re 13th in the nation, swiping 8.8 steals per game.

The Wildcats might win, but it should be tight. With that in mind, Santa Clara plus the points is one of the best First Round March Madness picks.