The early 2026 NFL Draft odds suggest Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza will be picked first. Who else is in the mix for the top pick and is he a deserving favorite?
I explore the latest odds for the top pick and share my full scouting breakdowns before revealing my 2026 NFL Draft predictions.
NFL Draft 2026 Odds and Predictions (Snapshot)
Here are the latest NFL Draft betting odds, courtesy of BetOnline:
| PROP BET | BETTING FAVORITE/ODDS | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|
| First Pick | Fernando Mendoza (-160) | Fernando Mendoza (-160) |
Currently, the top NFL betting sites have one NFL Draft prop bet available. You can make your selection for the first overall pick while waiting for the rest of the markets to be released.
NFL Draft odds tend to shift quickly, so if there is a bet you like, I recommend locking in your picks as soon as possible. As more props become available, you’ll find my best bets here. If you’re interested in my reasoning, keep reading.
You can find up-to-date 2026 NFL Draft prop bets at BetOnline by navigating to Sports > Football > NFL Draft.
Here, you can find reasoning for all of our NFL Draft 2026 best bets:
2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds and Predictions
PLAYER
ODDS
Fernando Mendoza
-160
Reuben Bain Jr.
+350
Dante Moore
+400
Ty Simpson
+400
Arvell Reese
+1800
Keldric Faulk
+2500
Arch Manning
+5000
Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza (-160) is the favorite to be selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Indiana Hoosiers product is leading his school to a historic season and is favored to hear his name called first by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell in Pittsburgh.
At -160 odds, Mendoza has a 61.5% implied probability to go No. 1 overall, with the pick currently up for grabs. It’s possible that pick will be traded, but it will likely hinge on whether that team needs a quarterback or not.
Behind Mendoza, Miami Hurricanes’ DE Reuben Bain Jr. (+350) has the second-shortest odds, which translate to a 22.2% chance.
Let’s evaluate Mendoza’s pedigree and his closest rival before making a pick.
Fernando Mendoza (-160)
Mendoza is the driving force behind the best college football season in Indiana University’s history. It took 80 years for Indiana to win its second outright Big Ten title.
Entering the College Football Playoff as the No. 1 seed, the Hoosiers are 13-0 and Big Ten champions after a statement win over the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The former Cal quarterback has been the catalyst for Indiana on the field and a leader in the locker room. Along with the team’s success, Mendoza has the individual accolades to back up his qualifications for the top pick.
Did @IndianaFootball's Fernando Mendoza solidify his Heisman campaign with the win over Ohio State? 👀@Wendys pic.twitter.com/Zankv47arJ
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 13, 2025
He has passed for 2,980 yards with 33 touchdowns and six interceptions. The 6’5” junior has also rushed for 240 yards and six touchdowns. All things considered, it was hard not to award Mendoza the Heisman Trophy.
Beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship was the clincher for his Heisman resume. Mendoza made all the tough throws, and his decision-making was elite against the best defense in the nation.
The Jets need a quarterback, and Mendoza could fall into their laps with the top selection. Other teams in contention for the No. 1 pick are the Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, and Tennessee Titans. The Titans almost certainly aren’t selecting a quarterback after drafting Cam Ward last year.
However, Tennessee would absolutely entertain trade offers. The Cardinals have Kyler Murray but could be ready to move on. The Raiders, Browns, and Jets would all likely take a quarterback with the first pick. All in all, I’m confident that the opening selection will be used on a signal-caller.
Reuben Bain Jr. (+350)
If the team with the first pick is looking for an athletic edge rusher, Bain Jr. stands out as the best offensive disruptor in the draft. After a 2024 campaign marred by injuries, Bain Jr. has made his presence felt for the Hurricanes this season.
Although Bain Jr.’s numbers don’t jump off the page, he’s the type of player you have to watch on film. Offensive coordinators game plan around him and rarely allow free runs at the quarterback. He is often double-teamed and running backs regularly chip to his side in pass protection.
Overall, Bain Jr. recorded 23 tackles, 4.5 sacks, one forced fumble, and one interception. The 6’3” defensive end is fully capable of dropping into coverage and baiting quarterbacks into mistakes. It’s imperative for offenses to know where he is on the field at all times.
Reuben Bain Jr. with the early sack 👀
— Justin M (@JustinM_NFL) November 29, 2025
One of my favorite prospects for the #Titans pic.twitter.com/5Fsn1rrKKv
That said, Bain Jr. isn’t a “can’t-miss” prospect. He projects to carve out a solid professional career, but he doesn’t offer the rare traits you typically see in a top pick. It will be tough for GMs to justify making Bain Jr. the No. 1 overall selection, so I don’t see value at +350 in NFL Draft betting markets.
If I’m looking for value on a defensive player, Buckeyes’ LB Arvell Reese is the better bet at +1800.
2026 NFL Draft First Pick Predictions and Betting Pick
There’s no true “unicorn” in the 2026 NFL Draft. There are many good players, but I haven’t identified one as a sure-fire, can’t-miss prospect. Still, with several teams at the top of the draft board needing a quarterback, I expect the pendulum to swing toward Mendoza.
There’s a case to be made for Oregon Ducks QB Dante Moore in the top 5, but he’ll likely be selected after Mendoza. Leading the Hoosiers to a Big Ten Championship win over an Ohio State defense loaded with future NFL talent was the deciding factor for me. In short, the Heisman Trophy winner has the “it” factor that a lot of players in this class don’t possess.
Beyond Mendoza’s on-field skills, his positive attitude and outlook will appeal to front offices. He looks like a player with the tools to be a franchise leader. So, before Mendoza’s odds jump, consider backing him at -160 as one of your best NFL Draft prop bets to go No. 1 overall.
Where to Bet on the 2026 NFL Draft?
NFL Draft betting has exploded in popularity in recent years. You can find odds at many online sportsbooks, but BetOnline is my favorite one for the draft.
With the best odds and multiple markets each, BetOnline is a reliable option. For a limited time, new customers can claim a $250 in Free Bets with no-strings-attached! Plus, every deposit includes 100 Free Spins on BetOnline slots.
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