The 2025-26 NFL MVP odds have experienced a significant shake-up recently, as Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford have overtaken the top spot. Are we set to see a surprising MVP winner this season, or will someone like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes stage a big comeback?
I explore the latest winner odds, analyze the betting favorites, highlight a few good sleepers, and make my NFL MVP predictions.
NFL MVP 2025-26 Betting Odds
The following NFL MVP odds for 2025-26 are courtesy of Bovada:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye (NE) | -145 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | +125 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | +1200 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | +1800 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +2800 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | +6500 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | +7500 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | +10000 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | +10000 |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | +10000 |
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (-145) has surpassed Matthew Stafford (+125) in the two-man NFL MVP race. After a blowout win against the New York Giants, Maye’s MVP odds surged, making him the new favorite. Just last week, Maye trailed Stafford at +180 but now holds the lead.
Through Week 13, Maye has an implied 59.2% chance to win MVP. Stafford, though still in contention, has slipped to second place. Currently, no other player is considered a serious MVP candidate.
Still, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s MVP odds have improved dramatically. Two weeks ago, he was at +7500, but now he’s at +1200, the third-shortest odds, marking an increase in implied probability from 1.3% to 7.7%.
You can find updated NFL MVP betting odds at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Football > NFL Awards > Regular Season MVP.
NFL MVP Betting Favorites for 2025-26
The MVP race is expected to be a tight battle and go deep into the 2025-26 schedule. Let’s break down the leading favorites, according to the best NFL betting sites:
Drake Maye (-145)
Maye’s MVP credentials have skyrocketed from early September to December. The New England Patriots’ second-year quarterback is blossoming and far exceeding anyone’s expectations in his first season under head coach Mike Vrabel.
QBs to win 10 straight games with an 80+ passer rating in a single season prior to age 24 (Since 1950):
HOF Dan Marino
>Drake Maye pic.twitter.com/5uIEoz7jgH— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) December 2, 2025
Maye has passed for 3,412 yards, 23 touchdowns, and six interceptions on 71.5% completions. After another stellar performance in Week 13, Maye’s odds to win NFL MVP were on the move again.
The win secured Maye his 10th consecutive win on the season to bring the Patriots to 11-2 and first in the NFL. Additionally, Maye’s 111.9 QB rating ranks first in the league, just ahead of Stafford who currently boasts a 111.7 rating.
The No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has also showcased some mobility on the field, as well. He’s rushed for 319 yards and two touchdowns this season. Above all, Maye’s decision-making is locked in. For a 23-year-old with less than two full years of experience, he is reading the field like a 10-year veteran.
The one mark against Maye is that he’s not a household name, but that is quickly changing with each passing week. The media attention, which was fairly quiet early this season, has started to focus heavily on Maye and the Patriots.
I’ve had faith in Maye for weeks now, but now everything else seems to be coming around in a hurry. That includes the betting public and oddsmakers, who give Maye a better than 50% chance of winning!
Matthew Stafford (+125)
Stafford has put up some huge numbers throughout his career. He also has two Pro Bowl seasons and a Super Bowl title on his resume. However, the former Georgia Bulldog and Detroit Lion has never won an NFL MVP.
That could all change this season. Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career at 37 years old. Injuries have often followed him throughout the past, but he hasn’t been bothered by any ailments lately and is moving around like a 25-year-old.
Through 12 games and with a 9-3 record for the Rams, Stafford has passed for 3,073 yards, 32 touchdowns, and four interceptions on 66.3% completions. His 111.7 QB rating puts him a sliver behind Maye’s number.
Stafford was on a torrid pace before the Carolina Panthers cooled him off in Week 14. He was the first quarterback to throw four touchdowns and no interceptions in three consecutive starts against the Jaguars, Saints, and 49ers. Additionally, Stafford recently broke the record for most touchdown passes consecutively without throwing an interception.
Matthew Stafford broke the NFL record for consecutive TD passes (28) without an INT…
On the next drive he was picked off for the first time in 10 weeks 😭💔
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/OK5ASN0b5C— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 30, 2025
However, within minutes of breaking the record, he threw an interception, followed moments later by another. Stafford ended the game with 243 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. It was his first multi-interception game of the 2025-26 season. That was enough for bookies to move Stafford from the top spot in favor of Maye.
Critics have accused Stafford of being a stat-padder throughout his career, but this season that hasn’t been the case. He’s winning games and leading the Rams on clutch drives. Although injuries have been a constant theme in his career, Stafford has managed to stay healthy after entering this year with concerns.
Best NFL MVP Sleepers in 2025-26
There are two quarterbacks to consider as the best longshot NFL MVP betting picks. As we’ve seen this season, the odds can change in a hurry, so it’s worth putting down a couple of flier wagers:
2025-26 NFL MVP Prediction and Betting Pick
If I had a vote today, my pick would go to Maye. Along with his fantastic numbers, the Patriots are having the best success as a team they’ve had since 2019. There are many reasons why that has happened, but one of the largest is the play of Maye.
He has looked completely unfazed and unintimidated by the moment in Foxborough. Regardless of the opponent, Maye has stepped up and been a catalyst for the Patriots’ offense. He is already one of the best in the league in the pocket and at reading the field while under duress.
The Patriots’ and Rams’ quarterbacks are likely to battle down to the wire in the race for MVP. Both have landed significant blows at different points this season, and that competition will probably continue into the final stretch. Maye and Stafford are both deserving candidates, but I favor the Patriot.
I’ve bet on Maye at +425 and +180 earlier this season. Although I’m less excited about the current -145 odds, Maye remains my top pick for NFL MVP.
Where to Bet on the NFL MVP Odds?
The best betting odds to win NFL MVP can be located at Bovada for the 2025-26 campaign. With prices on hundreds of players at excellent odds, Bovada is our top recommendation to bet on the league MVP.
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