The 2025-26 NFL MVP odds have experienced a significant shake-up recently, as Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford have overtaken the top spot. Are we set to see a surprising MVP winner this season, or will someone like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes stage a big comeback?
I explore the latest winner odds, analyze the betting favorites, highlight a few good sleepers, and make my NFL MVP predictions.
NFL MVP 2025-26 Betting Odds
The following NFL MVP odds for 2025-26 are courtesy of Bovada:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | +140 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +180 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +475 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | +850 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | +2000 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | +4000 |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | +5000 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | +5500 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | +6500 |
| Daniel Jones (IND) | +6500 |
Matthew Stafford (+140) has taken the lead as the NFL MVP favorite after another outstanding performance in Week 11. According to the updated betting prices, Stafford now has a 41.7% implied probability of winning his first regular season MVP award.
It’s a close race that could come down to the final weeks, with New England Patriots’ sophomore QB Drake Maye (+180) close behind. Maye enters Week 12 with a 35.7% implied chance, showing minimal separation at the top. Both Stafford and Maye have seen their MVP odds improve over the past week: Stafford went from +300 to +140, and Maye from +300 to +180.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen (+475) is back in the MVP conversation following a strong showing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Allen’s odds improved from +700 last week to +475, raising his implied probability from 12.5% to 19%.
You can find updated NFL MVP betting odds at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Football > NFL Awards > Regular Season MVP.
NFL MVP Betting Favorites for 2025-26
The MVP race is expected to be a tight battle and go deep into the 2025-26 schedule. Let’s break down the leading favorites, according to the best NFL betting sites:
Matthew Stafford (+140)
Stafford has put up some huge numbers throughout his career. He also has two Pro Bowl seasons and a Super Bowl title on his resume. However, the former Georgia Bulldog and Detroit Lion has never won an NFL MVP.
That could all change this season. Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career at 37 years old. Injuries have often followed him throughout the past, but he hasn’t been bothered by any ailments lately and is moving around like a 25-year-old.
Through nine games and with an 8-2 record for the Rams, Stafford has passed for 2,557 yards, 27 touchdowns, and two interceptions on 66% completions. His 114.8 QB rating puts him just ahead of Maye.
Stafford is currently on a torrid stretch. He was the first quarterback to throw four touchdowns and no interceptions in three consecutive starts against the Jaguars, Saints, and 49ers. Aging like fine wine, Stafford stayed hot in his most recent outing versus the Seahawks, with 130 yards and two touchdowns in a clutch 21-19 win.
Matthew Stafford’s efficiency over his last seven games has been remarkable 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/Rfpl8UnrQg
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) November 17, 2025
This is shaping up to be an MVP campaign for Stafford, yet critics have accused him of being a stat-padder throughout his career. However, that claim doesn’t hold up this season, as he’s led the Rams down the field to win games multiple times.
The main concern remains Stafford’s injury history, particularly lingering back issues dating to his Lions days and a spinal contusion in 2022. He also dealt with an aggravated disc during preseason. Still, if Stafford stays healthy, he deserves to be in the MVP conversation.
Drake Maye (+180)
Maye’s MVP credentials have skyrocketed from early September to November. The New England Patriots’ second-year quarterback is blossoming and far exceeding anyone’s expectations in his first season under head coach Mike Vrabel.
This is a Drake Maye post.
📸: patriotspulse / #NEPats pic.twitter.com/Io4ftUy3Cw
— Pats Planet Media 🪐 (@patsplanetmedia) November 18, 2025
Maye has passed for 2,836 yards, 20 touchdowns, and five interceptions on 71.9% completions. After a clutch 28-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 27-14 over the New York Jets, Maye’s QB rating ranks second, behind only Lamar Jackson. Additionally, Maye’s number is slightly ahead of Stafford at 113.2 versus 112.8.
The No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has also showcased some mobility on the field, as well. He’s rushed for 285 yards and two touchdowns this season. Above all, Maye’s decision-making is locked in. For a 23-year-old with less than two full years of experience, he is reading the field like a 10-year veteran.
The one mark against Maye is that he’s not a household name, but that is quickly changing with each passing week. The media appeal isn’t as strong for Maye as there are some other players, but it’s difficult to ignore what he’s doing on the field.
Josh Allen (+475)
After winning his first NFL MVP award last season, Allen is aiming to go back-to-back. His MVP odds have fluctuated significantly this season: he’s been the favorite at times, and fell to as low as +700 after a Week 10 loss to the Dolphins.
Allen has led the Bills to a solid 7-3 record, though they didn’t expect to be trailing the Patriots in the AFC East. He’s already produced some MVP-caliber performances, including in the most recent win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Josh Allen leads the league in touchdowns AGAIN.
He’s on pace to keep his 40+ TD streak#BuiltInBuffalo | #GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/rEOrPa2NOt
— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) November 18, 2025
In that game, Allen threw for 317 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for three more scores. Despite throwing two interceptions, his six total touchdowns stood out in the 44-32 shootout victory. This performance was key, especially after his MVP odds dipped following a lousy 30-13 loss to Miami.
Through 10 games, Allen has completed 69.6% of his passes for 2,456 yards, with 18 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s also rushed for 351 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s certainly in the MVP discussion, but with Stafford and Maye also performing well, the competition is tough.
Given this, I don’t see much value in betting on Allen to win MVP at +475 odds.
Best NFL MVP Sleepers in 2025-26
There are two quarterbacks to consider as the best longshot NFL MVP betting picks. As we’ve seen this season, the odds can change in a hurry, so it’s worth putting down a couple of flier wagers:
2025-26 NFL MVP Prediction and Betting Pick
If I had a vote today, my pick would go to Maye. Along with his fantastic numbers, the Patriots are having the best success as a team they’ve had since 2019. There are many reasons why that has happened, but one of the largest is the play of Maye.
It’s going to be difficult to beat the Bills twice in one season – they will be coming for revenge. Still, the game will be in Foxborough, and the Bills have been far from unstoppable this season.
It’s within reason that Maye and the Patriots get it done, and his NFL MVP odds explode. I believe Taylor should be considered by voters, but the running bias might be too tough to overcome. The MVP is most likely going to come down to Stafford and Maye in the final weeks of the season.
Both quarterbacks are worthy of being the 2025-26 MVP, but I’ll side with Maye, who I believe is slightly ahead in this race due to his efficiency. Despite having the edge, Maye’s odds are offering stronger value at +180.
I backed Maye at +425 a few weeks ago, and recommend a play at his current price of +180 for your 2025-26 NFL MVP picks!
Where to Bet on the NFL MVP Odds?
The best betting odds to win NFL MVP can be located at Bovada for the 2025-26 campaign. With prices on hundreds of players at excellent odds, Bovada is our top recommendation to bet on the league MVP.
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