The 2025-26 NFL MVP odds feature familiar names at the top, but there’s no clear favorite for the award. After Buffalo Bills’ QB Josh Allen won his first MVP, is he primed to repeat this year?
I explore the latest winner odds, analyze the betting favorites, highlight a few good sleepers, and make my NFL MVP predictions.
NFL MVP 2025-26 Betting Odds
The following NFL MVP odds for 2025-26 are courtesy of Bovada:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +300 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | +500 |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | +700 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | +740 |
| Jayden Daniels (WSH) | +820 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | +1200 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | +1200 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | +1500 |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | +2100 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | +3000 |
Buffalo Bills’ QB Josh Allen (+300) is the new favorite to win NFL MVP after Week 1. Allen and the Bills defeated the Baltimore Ravens in a wild finish, which pushed the Bills’ signal caller ahead of Lamar Jackson (+500).
At +300, Allen has a 25% implied probability to win back-to-back MVPs this season. Heading into the opening matchup, Allen was slightly behind Jackson’s position at the top. He had +600 NFL MVP odds to put him in a tie for second-best with Joe Burrow (+700), whose price has slipped.
Meanwhile, Jackson, who had a phenomenal performance but came up short on the scoreboard, now has the second-best odds to win NFL MVP. That said, Jackson’s price remains the same from last week, so his implied chance of winning is the same at 16.7%.
You can find updated NFL MVP betting odds at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Football > NFL Awards > Regular Season MVP.
NFL MVP Betting Favorites for 2025-26
The MVP race is expected to be a tight battle and go deep into the 2025-26 schedule. Let’s break down the leading favorites, according to the best NFL betting sites:
Josh Allen (+300)
In a first for Allen, the Bills’ signal caller collected the MVP award last season. Allen didn’t have the stats on Jackson or Burrow, but the Bills had the better record and were viewed as the most serious contender.
Additionally, Allen did it without WR Stefon Diggs and proved that he doesn’t need an elite No. 1 target to have success. It was a close call against Jackson, but Allen made more plays down the stretch to lead the Bills into the playoffs.
The 29-year-old from Firebaugh, CA, passed for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions on 63.6% completions. He also scampered for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns on 5.2 yards per attempt.
When the Bills needed a play, Allen was always there to answer the call. That was the deciding factor in the end for voters, who sided with Allen’s arm and legs. The Bills are once again going to have a strong team aided by their QB’s decision-making.
Josh Allen of the @BuffaloBills is the first player in NFL history to have 250+ passing yards & 2+ rushing TDs in any single quarter of any single game.
He did it in the 4th quarter to bring his team back from a 15-point deficit. pic.twitter.com/N7pOtLekGa
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) September 8, 2025
That was most certainly the case in the season opener against the Bills. Down by 15 points with under four minutes remaining in regulation, Allen orchestrated a comeback for the ages. It was the first time in NFL history that a team erased a +15 point deficit with so little time remaining on the game clock.
Allen finished the contest against the Ravens with 394 yards passing, two touchdowns, and 30 yards rushing, which included two scores on the ground. Those numbers, coupled with the 41-40 victory, afford Allen the best NFL MVP odds.
Lamar Jackson (+500)
Jackson enters the 2025-26 season with his eyes set on capturing MVP honors for a third time in his career. He won the award in 2019, 2023, and could have easily repeated last year.
The dynamic Ravens’ QB put on a show with his arm and legs. While for much of his career, Jackson’s critics have noted he isn’t the best passer, he certainly put them to rest last year.
In 2024-25, Jackson passed for 4,172 yards, 41 touchdowns, and four interceptions on 66.7% completions! That looks like an elite passer to me.
Jackson added 915 yards and four touchdowns rushing on 6.6 yards per carry. If there was any blemish on his resume, the 10 fumbles with five lost were problematic.
Lamar Jackson traveled 75.9 yards on this 19-yard scramble.
Jackson is responsible for 4 of the 5 longest scramble runs by total distance traveled over the last two seasons.#BALvsBUF | #RavensFlockpic.twitter.com/oJZrQV3ADX
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 8, 2025
Note that Jackson’s numbers were more impressive on paper than when he won the MVP in 2023-24. Back then, he finished with 3,678 yards, 24 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. #8 also ran for 821 yards and five scores on the ground.
Jackson’s stats really accelerated when RB Derrick Henry joined the Ravens last season. The running back’s presence in the backfield helped elevate Jackson as a runner and passer.
With Henry on the field, defenses haven’t had a fun time, especially in the secondary, where they’re leaving room for Jackson to throw over the top.
Jackson was able to connect with his arm and run with his legs against the Bills in Week 1. The dynamic quarterback concluded the matchup with 209 yards passing, two touchdowns, and 70 yards rushing with a score. Despite the loss, Jackson’s 144.4 QB rating was better than Allen’s 112.
Expect another sensational campaign for Jackson, and the numbers should reflect that on a team I expect to compete for Super Bowl 60.
Joe Burrow (+700)
Burrow is the one quarterback amongst the top favorites that doesn’t exactly fit into the same mold. He isn’t on a championship-contending team. In fact, currently, the Bengals’ Super Bowl odds are +2000 for the eighth best in the league.
So, what’s going on here? Can Burrow win MVP on a team that isn’t a perennial favorite? The argument for Bengals star is that he is going to pass for a massive amount of yardage. The touchdowns should follow, so expect Burrow’s stat line to be one of the best by the end of the season.
Joe Burrow's confidence is on 💯😤 pic.twitter.com/r5Qf8ZZ10n
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) August 22, 2025
This is going to largely be due to the Bengals having such an inept defense. They are projected to have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Burrow must throw for monster yards for the Bengals to have a chance. And, if Burrow puts his team in contention, he’s going to be in the MVP hunt.
The Bengals’ Week 1 matchup against the Browns didn’t exactly fit that storyline! They depended on clutch defense and a barely functional Browns’ offense for a 17-16 victory. Burrow wasn’t asked to do much, as he passed for 113 yards and a touchdown in the narrow win.
However, don’t expect many games unfolding like this. The Bengals are going to need Burrow’s arm and offense to win plenty of shootouts.
Last season, Burrow passed for 4,918 yards, 43 touchdowns, and nine interceptions on 70.6% completions. Along with a career-high in touchdowns and passing yards, Burrow recorded a career-high QB rating of 108.5.
Look for similar numbers, but do you trust the Bengals to be in playoff contention? If so, he’s a sharp 2025-26 NFL MVP pick!
Best NFL MVP Sleepers in 2025-26
If Eagles’ RB Saquon Barkley being left out of the MVP conversation last year is any indication, the award is essentially a quarterback award.
Based on that, there are two longshot quarterbacks who deserve a look for your NFL MVP betting picks:
2025-26 NFL MVP Prediction and Betting Pick
After being denied a second consecutive MVP in 2024-25, I expect Jackson to come out with something to prove. He had a fantastic campaign but lost out in a toss-up against Allen.
Although Jackson came up short in Week 1 in a rematch against the Bills, he was playing with a chip on his shoulder. He couldn’t do anything about the porous defense.
The Ravens will be fine, and taking the Bills down to the wire in Orchard Park shouldn’t be viewed as much of a blemish. They were the better team for the vast majority of the night and should respond accordingly.
When the young players on defense settle in, I expect the Ravens to be a more well-rounded squad. This race is going down to the end of the season, and that’s when the Ravens should be at their best.
I’m high on the Ravens winning the Super Bowl, and equally as confident in Jackson having an MVP campaign!
Where to Bet on the NFL MVP Odds?
The best betting odds to win NFL MVP can be located at Bovada for the 2025-26 campaign. With prices on hundreds of players at excellent odds, Bovada is our top recommendation to bet on the league MVP.
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