The 2025-26 NFL MVP odds have experienced a significant shake-up recently, as Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford have overtaken the top spots. With only one week remaining in the regular season, there aren’t many more opportunities to impress voters.
I explore the latest winner odds, analyze the top betting favorites, and reveal my NFL MVP predictions for the 2025-26 season.
NFL MVP 2025-26 Betting Odds
The following NFL MVP odds for 2025-26 are courtesy of Bovada:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye (NE) | -325 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | +275 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAC) | +15000 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | +20000 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +20000 |
New England Patriots’ second-year QB Drake Maye (-325) has overtaken Matthew Stafford (+275) as the clear betting favorite to win NFL MVP. Stafford was favored over the last few weeks, but Maye’s MVP odds surged following Week 17.
Maye had a brilliant performance against the New York Jets, while Stafford and the Rams choked in Atlanta against the Falcons. As a result, Maye’s price to win MVP has skyrocketed to overtake Stafford. Two weeks ago, Stafford was the obvious favorite at -275.
In other words, Stafford’s implied odds to win NFL MVP have tanked from 73.3% to 26.7%. Conversely, Maye’s price has shifted from +400 to -325, representing a massive 20% to shift after Week 17 was finalized! Aside from Maye and Stafford, there isn’t a realistic contender to win.
You can find updated NFL MVP betting odds at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Football > NFL Awards > Regular Season MVP.
NFL MVP Betting Favorites for 2025-26
The MVP race is a two-player race between Maye or Stafford, with no other name within reaching distance. Let’s break down the leading favorites, according to the best NFL betting sites:
Drake Maye (-325)
Maye’s MVP credentials have skyrocketed from early September to December. The New England Patriots’ second-year quarterback is blossoming and far exceeding anyone’s expectations in his first season under head coach Mike Vrabel.
While his odds to win MVP slipped as Stafford went on a torrid pace, he is back on top with only Week 18 remaining on the schedule. Maye throttled the Jets with 256 yards passing and five touchdowns on an incredible 90.5% completion rate.
Maye’s accuracy has been off the charts in his second season in the NFL. He’s completing 71.7% of his passes after 66.6% last year. Additionally, Maye has thrown for 4,203 yards, 30 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. The UNC product has also shown off his ability to get out of the pocket and run.
The Drake Maye look away was too smooth
NEvsBAL on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/LzrCqC6nzd— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2025
The 23-year-old ran for 409 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. He is an efficient decision-maker who is beyond his years. While Maye doesn’t have the most jaw-dropping numbers among quarterbacks in the NFL, he is making clutch passes and letting the game come to him.
When Maye has to make a difficult pass, he’s been there to convert first downs. Maye has saved his best work for the right time. As well as the five touchdowns against the Jets, Maye threw a total of seven touchdowns and 636 yards against the Ravens and Jets.
So, while Maye lit up a thin Jets’ defense, which doesn’t move the needle for some voters, he led the Patriots to a 28-24 win in Baltimore. Maye finished with 380 yards passing, 25 yards rushing, and two touchdown passes. He made one mistake with an interception, but not enough to take the shine off his strong effort.
As the final week of the season approaches and the Patriots AFC East champs, Maye might have too much of a lead for rivals to overcome now!
Matthew Stafford Maye (+275)
It appeared like a foregone conclusion that Stafford was going to run away with the MVP this season. He was on fire and had the Rams looking at the NFC West title before recently.
However, now the Rams have already been eliminated from divisional contention before Week 18, and Stafford is coming off a shoddy performance. At 11-5 on the season, the Rams are third in the NFC behind the 49ers and Seahawks.
Coupled with Stafford’s rocky showing in Atlanta, he’s trailing Maye in the MVP hunt. Stafford’s poor start was exemplified by a pick-6 to give the Falcons a 14-0 lead in the second quarter.
JESSIE BATES III PICK-6
LARvsATL on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/v0tdpjZb88— NFL (@NFL) December 30, 2025
The Rams’ signal caller was able to stabilize and get things in check, but he finished with one of his worst stat lines in 2025. Stafford threw 269 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions on 57.9% completions. If Stafford rallied the Rams to a comeback victory, his NFL MVP betting odds may not have fallen this far, but they suffered a 27-24 loss.
Overall, Stafford’s numbers are impressive, though. He has completed 65.2% of his passes for 4,448 yards, 42 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Despite throwing three interceptions against the Falcons, Stafford didn’t throw one in 10 of his previous 13 matchups.
Those look like MVP numbers, but Stafford’s QB rating took a dive recently. With a 108.8, he’s dropped behind Maye’s rating of 112.9, which is the top number in the league.
The Rams finish the season off at home against the Cardinals. It should be a strong performance for Stafford. However, the Rams are statistically eliminated from contention to win the NFC West, so they may play it safer and may not press hard with starters.
2025-26 NFL MVP Prediction and Betting Pick
I typically recommend a couple of long-shot picks, but at this point, it’s truly between Maye and Stafford. Betting on any other player is essentially donating money to the bookies. My primary NFL MVP betting pick this season has been Maye.
I’ve backed him at various points throughout the year, including when his odds were longer than +400. Two weeks ago, I hedged with a Stafford MVP bet, and I believe the value is still firmly on the Rams’ quarterback’s side at +275.
At -325, this price is slightly too tall for my liking on Maye. It’s more of a coin flip than the current NFL MVP odds suggest, so I can’t recommend laying that price on the young Patriot. Expect Maye’s MVP odds to likely fall after the Week 18 slate. The Patriots finish the season against the Dolphins, and I fully expect Maye to deliver at home in front of a fired-up crowd. However, Stafford has a stat-padding matchup versus the Cardinals, too.
Stafford had a golden opportunity to rubber-stamp his MVP campaign in Atlanta but fell short. That being said, Stafford still appears like the play for MVP at this golden value. For your best NFL MVP bets, I recommend backing Stafford to take home the hardware for the first time in his career.
Where to Bet on the NFL MVP Odds?
The best betting odds to win NFL MVP can be located at Bovada for the 2025-26 campaign. With prices on hundreds of players at excellent odds, Bovada is our top recommendation to bet on the league MVP.
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