Following the conclusion of the regular season, the 2025-26 NFL MVP odds have experienced a significant shake-up once again. With voting closed after Week 18, Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford battled down to the wire in a razor thin fight.
I explore the latest winner odds, analyze the top betting favorites, and reveal my NFL MVP predictions for the 2025-26 season.
NFL MVP 2025-26 Betting Odds
The following NFL MVP odds for 2025-26 are courtesy of Bovada:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | -245 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +175 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | +35000 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | +50000 |
| C.J. Stroud (DEN) | +50000 |
After Drake Maye (+175) briefly took over as the favorite in Week 17, Matthew Stafford (-245) reclaimed the top spot and is now expected to win the NFL MVP award following the regular-season finale. Currently, Stafford is listed at -245, implying a 71% chance of capturing MVP.
He entered Week 17 as the clear favorite at -275 but exited as a +275 underdog after struggling against the Atlanta Falcons. Since then, the odds between Maye and Stafford have swung dramatically.
Over the last three weeks, Stafford’s implied chances have fluctuated from 73.3% to 26.7% and now back up to 71%. Stafford and Maye remain well ahead of the rest of the field, with the race likely coming down to these two quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence (+35000) has the next-shortest odds, representing just a 0.3% chance.
You can find updated NFL MVP betting odds at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Football > NFL Awards > Regular Season MVP.
NFL MVP Betting Favorites for 2025-26
The MVP race is a two-player race between Maye or Stafford, with no other name within reaching distance. Let’s break down the leading favorites, according to the best NFL betting sites:
Matthew Stafford (+245)
It appeared like a foregone conclusion that Stafford was going to run away with the MVP this season. He was on fire and had the Rams looking at the NFC West title before recently.
However, the Rams lost two of their last three games, including a 38-37 overtime defeat to the Seahawks, which ended their bid for the divisional crown. As a result, Maye has remained in the mix and moved ahead of Stafford after the loss to the Falcons.
At 12-5 on the season, the Rams edged the 49ers on a tiebreaker to finish second behind the Seahawks. Stafford struggled against Atlanta, throwing three interceptions, including a pick-six, in a 27-24 loss. Bettors appeared to overreact to that performance, pushing Maye into the lead.
Even so, Stafford’s numbers on paper are hard for voters to ignore. The former Detroit Lion has passed for 4,707 yards, 46 touchdowns, and eight interceptions while completing 65% of his passes. Leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns will go far with voters.
What a season for Matthew Stafford 🙌#RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/QwGPsDYDzt
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) January 5, 2026
He has thrown 41 of those touchdowns since Week 4 to surge to the front of the MVP race. Also, note that Stafford has avoided throwing an interception in 11 of his last 14 games. Along with his gaudy statistics, there may be some bias in favor of the veteran quarterback.
Stafford has been in the league since 2009 and has played in 239 regular-season games. Voters may be inclined to give him the nod based on the dues he’s paid over the years. Ideally, the best player should win, but the 37-year-old may benefit from some sentimental support.
Drake Maye (+175)
Maye’s MVP credentials have skyrocketed from early September to December. The New England Patriots’ second-year quarterback is blossoming and far exceeding anyone’s expectations in his first season under head coach Mike Vrabel.
While his odds to win MVP slipped as Stafford went on a torrid pace, he remains in contention and nothing is a lock at this point. While Stafford struggled against the Falcons in Week 17, Maye throttled the Jets with 256 yards passing and five touchdowns on an incredible 90.5% completion rate. That contrast put Maye out ahead for MVP momentarily.
Maye’s accuracy has been off the charts in his second season in the NFL. He’s completing 72% of his passes after 66.6% last year. Additionally, Maye has thrown for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He closed out the season with 191 yards and a touchdown on 77.8% passing against the Dolphins.
The youngest player to lead the NFL in completion % in the Super Bowl era:
Drake Maye🎯 pic.twitter.com/FepkZPdr3h
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) January 6, 2026
The UNC product has also shown off his ability to get out of the pocket and run. The 23-year-old ran for 450 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. He is an efficient decision-maker who is beyond his years. While Maye doesn’t have the most jaw-dropping numbers among quarterbacks in the NFL, he is making clutch passes and letting the game come to him.
So, while Maye lit up a thin Jets’ and Dolphins’ defense, which doesn’t move the needle for some voters, he led the Patriots to a 28-24 win in Baltimore. Maye finished with 380 yards passing, 25 yards rushing, and two touchdown passes. He made one mistake with an interception, but not enough to take the shine off his strong effort.
Lastly, Maye leads the league with a QB rating of 113.5. This puts him roughly four points ahead of Stafford, but are voters going to pay that much attention?
Maye has the rushing, completion percentage, and passer rating on Stafford, but it may not be enough to convince voters.
2025-26 NFL MVP Prediction and Betting Pick
I typically recommend a couple of long-shot picks, but at this point, it’s truly between Maye and Stafford. Betting on any other player is essentially donating money to the bookies. So, who should be your top NFL MVP pick? In my view, both players would be deserving winners.
It wouldn’t be a surprise either way, and you can make a strong case for either Maye or Stafford. However, the major statistics, notably passing yards and touchdowns, lean heavily in favor of the veteran quarterback. Maye threw 15 fewer touchdowns than Stafford, which works against the Patriot.
Above all, voters are likely to be swayed by Stafford’s status as a 17-year veteran quarterback. Some will see this as essentially a tie between Maye and Stafford and simply side with the senior quarterback. Maye should have many more years to compete for an MVP, but given Stafford’s injury history, this could be his last real shot.
In short, after backing Stafford at +275 following his tough Week 17, I’m sticking with the Ram. That price is long gone, but -245 odds on a player who should be closer to -400 still represents solid value as the best NFL MVP betting pick.
Where to Bet on the NFL MVP Odds?
The best betting odds to win NFL MVP can be located at Bovada for the 2025-26 campaign. With prices on hundreds of players at excellent odds, Bovada is our top recommendation to bet on the league MVP.
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