The 2025-26 NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds have gone through a major shake-up since the start of the season! Indianapolis Colts’ RB Jonathan Taylor established a clear lead at online sportsbooks, but Seahawks’ WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has recently overtaken him to assume a comfortable spot at the top.
Let’s analyze the updated NFL OPOY betting odds, the top favorites, and other potential winners before I share my Offensive Player of the Year predictions.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds 2025-26
Here are the latest NFL Offensive Player of the Year betting odds, courtesy of Bovada.
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | -575 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | +900 |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | +1800 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | +2500 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | +2500 |
| George Pickens (DAL) | +12500 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +12500 |
| James Cook (BUF) | +15000 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | +17500 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +27500 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | +27500 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | +27500 |
After Week 15, Smith-Njigba (-575) is a heavy favorite to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year. The Seahawks’ dynamic wide receiver now has an 85.2% implied probability of capturing the award in his third NFL season.
Smith-Njigba’s OPOY odds have surged in recent weeks, pushing him past Taylor (+900) at top NFL betting sites. At +900, Taylor’s price has plummeted, with only a 10% probability heading into Week 16.
Following Week 11, Taylor held a sizable lead at -425 odds. However, the market has since flipped in favor of Smith-Njigba. By the end of Week 13, Smith-Njigba and Taylor were even at -105, but the Seahawk has since pulled away with only three weeks remaining in the regular season.
The OPOY race is effectively down to Smith-Njigba and Taylor, with Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (+1800) still holding an outside chance after back-to-back monster performances. At present, Nacua’s odds imply just a 5.3% chance to win the award.
See the latest odds and bet on your predictions today by going to Bovada and following these steps: All Sports > Football > NFL Awards & League Leaders > Offensive Player of the Year.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year 2025-26 Betting Favorites
With Week 13 in the books, let’s evaluate where the leading contenders are as of early December before making my 2025-26 NFL Offensive Player of the Year betting picks:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-575)
It has been a monster season for Smith-Njigba in his first year with QB Sam Darnold at the controls in Seattle. The 23-year-old Ohio State product is flirting with Calvin Johnson’s all-time receiving record at this rate. He will need to average 141 yards over the rest of the season, which will be tough, but not impossible.
He’s been terrorizing secondaries and isn’t showing any signs of stopping. Smith-Njigba has collected 96 receptions, 1,541 yards, and nine touchdowns so far this season.
The talented receiver is in the midst of a red-hot streak, with at least eight receptions and 105 yards in six of his previous eight starts. The only thing that has slowed “JSN” down has been sitting down in the second half due to blowouts.
Smith-Njigba was limited to two receptions for 23 yards against the Vikings. That was because he was put on the bench in a 26-0 blowout. The Seahawks didn’t have to pass the ball, and Smith-Njigba didn’t see a target after they took control of the game.
In his latest performance, Smith-Njigba recorded his ninth game with 100+ receiving yards in a 18-16 win against the Indianapolis Colts. He finished with 113 yards on seven receptions in the nail-biter that sent the Seahawks to 11-3 this season.
The throw 🤌 The catch 🤌 #ProBowlVote + @jaxon_smith1
📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/Qun3BdhdFa
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 14, 2025
Last year, he finished with 1,130 yards, so Smith-Njigba is well on his way to recording a career-high. If he can stay the course and continue producing like this, it’s going to be interesting with Johnson’s record, which was set in 2012.
Smith-Njigba will have an extra game to get it done since the NFL moved to a 17-game schedule in 2021. In any event, voters will have to consider giving him the nod if that comes to fruition, withTaylor well off the pace of breaking Eric Dickerson’s 2,105-yard record. Even if Smith-Njigba doesn’t break the receiving record, he remains the obvious frontrunner for OPOY.
Oddsmakers had it completely wrong when Smith-Njigba had 2025-26 NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds at +600 in Week 9 and then +290 two weeks back. I capitalized on both mistakes and bet on him at these generous prices. I also added Smith-Njigba at -105 before his odds to win NFL OPOY surged recently.
Now, at -575, the odds are out of reach to provide any value. However, he looks like the clear choice to finish strong and clinch the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award.
Jonathan Taylor (+900)
It appeared like Taylor was going to run away with NFL Offensive Player of the Year for the majority of the season, but the odds suggest he’s now in a tough battle to hang on down the stretch.
Based on the updated NFL OPOY betting odds, he’s nearly out of the race with Smith-Njigba edging clear in the stretch. Still, he has played a pivotal role in the resurgence of the Colts and would be a deserving OPOY in 2025-26.
With little expectations for the Colts entering the campaign, they are fighting for a playoff seed and were first in the AFC South before recent injuries took them down.
44-year-old Philip Rivers was convinced to come out of retirement with the quarterback room in tough shape. Defenses will simply stack the box to stop Taylor with Rivers’ arm strength a non-factor.
In 2021-22, Taylor was honored with the Sporting News Offensive Player of the Year award. He also captured FedEx Ground Player of the Year, but missed out on winning NFL Offensive Player of the Year. If Taylor keeps running at this pace, he’s going to win and possibly be in the conversation for NFL MVP.
Through 15 weeks, Taylor has gained 1,443 yards and 16 touchdowns on 5.3 yards per carry. He galloped for 244 yards and three weeks against the Atlanta Falcons to send his NFL OPOY odds surging on November 9. However, Taylor has rushed for just 304 yards for an average of 76 yards per game over the last four weeks.
YOU CAN'T STOP JONATHAN TAYLOR. 83-YARD TD.
ATLvsIND on @NFLNetwork
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/XiL55trl4d— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
Taylor hasn’t rushed for more than four yards per carry and a 100-yard game since he gashed the Falcons. He’ll need to find an extra gear and a couple games like he had against Atlanta to get back into the OPOY discussion.
Nevertheless, Taylor is in the midst of a memorable campaign in the backfield, and despite regressing slightly recently, he’s still a monster. In addition to his yards as a runner, Taylor has 318 yards and two touchdowns receiving. He is going to have to perform against some tough defenses down the stretch, though.
Two of the Colts’ last three opponents are in the top 5 against the run, including the Texans and Jaguars. who lead the NFL defensively on the ground. They also face the 49ers, who aren’t slouches, either, as they rank 12th.
That’s a tough slate for Taylor, especially with defenses not scared with Rivers dropping back now. He’ll have solid games, but I don’t foresee another 200+ yard performance. This sets up nicely for Smith-Njigba.
Top Offensive Player of the Year Sleepers for 2025-26
Although I believe that Taylor and Smith-Njigba have established too large of a lead for anyone to catch up, there is an off chance that a sleeper emerges due to injuries. Check out my best longshot NFL Offensive Player of the Year picks:
2025-26 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Prediction and Betting Pick
Taylor had a considerable lead over Smith-Njigba, but now the script has flipped with the unstoppable “JSN” out ahead at -575. I’ve backed the 23-year-old Seahawk at various times this season. I’m holding a +600, +290, and -105 tickets on Smith-Njigba to win the award for NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
The schedule doesn’t favor Taylor in the Colts’ final three games. He has slowed down in December and appears too far behind to stage a comeback. The Colts have a tough schedule against some quality defenses, and they’ll play close to the line with their quarterback situation in dire straits.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks are likely to play tightly contested games as they battle the Rams and 49ers for the NFC West title. I don’t expect Smith-Njigba to spend much time on the sidelines in December, which should give him opportunities to post big stats and pull ahead of Taylor.
In short, I recommend backing Smith-Njigba to win OPOY. The updated price at -575 doesn’t make this bet as appealing, but I believe he’s one decent game away from clinching the honor.
You must be logged in to comment. Don't have an account? Sign up today.