The 2023 Tour de France begins on Saturday, July 1st, in Bilbao, Spain. That’s right, this year’s edition of the TDF will start in Spain where riders will spend the first three days of the Grand Tour before entering France on the third stage.
As usual, the 2023 edition of the Tour de France spans three weeks (July 1st to July 23rd) and will require riders to survive 2,115 miles (3,400 km) of grueling racing action.
This year’s Tour de France promises to be an epic three-week drama as it already has a certain buzz about it due to the star power in the second Grand Tour of the year.
Most notably, two of cycling’s biggest stars, Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar, will wage war against each other for the sport’s most prestigious prize – the Yellow Jersey, also known as the Maillot Jaune.
These two cyclists battled to a first and second-place result in 2022 with Vingegaard defeating two-time Tour de France winner Pogacar. However, in 2021, Pogacar finished atop the podium with Vingegaard in second place.
The Vingegaard vs. Pogacar Trilogy is going to light up the Tour de France just as it has already lit up cycling betting sites. Not only do the Tour de France odds indicate that Vingegaard and Pogacar are the overwhelming favorites, but there are numerous TDF prop bets focusing on these two recent Yellow Jersey winners.
Without any further delay, let’s examine the latest Tour de France odds, prop bets, and make our predictions as to who will win the coveted Maillot Jaune.
21 stages. 21 battles. It begins Saturday.
21 étapes. 21 batailles. Début des hostilités samedi.💛 #TDF2023 pic.twitter.com/ejwR7Y5Mmj
— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) June 26, 2023
2023 Tour de France Odds
Tour de France odds are courtesy of Bovada:
| Rider | Odds | Rider | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Vingegaard | Even | Tadej Pogacar | +125 |
| Jai Hindley | +1700 | Enric Mas Nicolau | +3000 |
| Ben O’Connor | +3300 | Adam Yates | +4000 |
| Mattias Skjelmose | +4000 | Richard Carapaz | +4000 |
| David Gaudu | +5000 | Romain Bardet | +5000 |
| Daniel Martinez | +6000 | Tom Pidcock | +6600 |
| Carlos Rodriguez | +8000 | Egan Bernal | +8000 |
| Joao Almeida | +8000 | Mikel Landa | +8000 |
| Simon Yates | +8000 | Wout Van Aert | +8000 |
2023 Tour de France Favorites
Let’s face it, there are two riders battling for the top spot in the General Classification (GC), and then everyone else. Vingegaard and Pogacar are the two clear-cut favorites in this race and one of these two men should finish on top of the podium. Let’s take a look at how each man has fared in 2023 so far:
Jonas Vingegaard (Even)
The reigning Tour de France champion had a slow start to his 2023 season with a third-place finish in the General Classification of Paris-Nice in March. Vingegaard was beaten by Pogacar in this eight-stage race and looked to be searching for his form.
However, Vingegaard quickly silenced any doubters a month later when he crushed the competition in the Tour of Basque Country in early April. The 25-year-old star from Denmark finished first, and also won three stages in this week long race.
From there, Vingegaard didn’t race again until early-June when he dominated the Criterium du Dauphine, which is considered the warm-up race for the Tour de France. Vingegaard showed he’s in peak form with a victory in the Dauphine. He’s definitely ready to defend his Tour de France title.
As they have done for the last few years, Team Jumbo-Visma will once again feature the best team in this year’s Grand Tour. However, the competition will be closer than years past as UAE Team Emirates has built a strong team around Pogacar.
Vingegaard will have his trusted teammates in Tisj Benoot, Sepp Kuss, Wilco Kelderman, Christophe Laporte and the rock star, Wout Van Aert.
Additionally, Jumbo-Visma added Dylan Van Baarle to this powerful team, which bodes well for Vingegaard and the rest of the squad as DVB can pull this Jumbo-Visma train on the flat roads and up the mountains.
Tadej Pogacar (+125)
The 24-year-old Slovenian is arguably the best cyclist in the sport today. Not only can he win Grand Tours, but he can also win smaller stage races and the one-day Classics.
Pogacar has had a dominant 2023 season to date. As mentioned, he won Paris-Nice three months ago. However, his momentum carried on through the spring with wins at the Tour de Flanders, Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallonne and the Slovenian Time Trials a few days ago.
Additionally, when not winning a race, he’s also finished in the Top 4 at Milan-San Remo and E3 Saxo Classic.
Pogacar didn’t participate in the Criterium du Dauphine or Tour de Suisse this year as many other Tour de France General Classification rivals did. Instead, he opted to train and also work on his time-trial skills.
In three Tour de France appearances, Pogacar won in 2020 and 2021, before finishing second to Vingegaard last year. His other Grand Tour appearance came in the 2019 Vuelta a Espana where he finished third.
This year, Pogacar heads into the Tour de France with his best team to date. UAE Team Emirates has surrounded the two-time TDF champ with some serious firepower. Adam Yates, Rafal Majka and Marc Soler will all be relied on in the mountain stages to guide Pogacar to a potential third title.
2023 Tour de France Betting Value
The following cyclists offer betting value based on their current TDF odds and previous Grand Tour experience:
Jai Hindley (+1700)
Jai Hindley is expected to be the leader and GC contender for Bora-Hansgrohe. This will be his first appearance in the Tour de France, but he’s not inexperienced when it comes to Grand Tour racing. Hindley has six Grand Tour appearances, which includes winning the 2022 Giro d’Italia.
Hindley has yet to show peak form in 2023 and has no wins on the year. But the 27-year-old Australian did finish fourth in the Criterium du Dauphine and is trending in the right direction.
At +1700 odds, Hindley does offer value. However, the smart choice would be to look into Tour de France prop bets that offer odds for Hindley finishing on the podium or in the Top 5. Unless there’s an injury to Pogacar or Vingegaard, Hindley doesn’t have the time-trialing skills to beat these two men and win the Yellow Jersey.
Is 🇦🇺Jai Hindley set to take a podium finish at this year’s Tour de France?
Is the Australian capable of following Pogačar and Vingegaard into the mountains? 🌼
📽️: https://t.co/gTKR8etYtx pic.twitter.com/K7bepJsdJ3— thecyclingdane (@Thecyclingdane) June 26, 2023
Ben O’Connor (+3300)
Like Hindley, Ben O’Connor, of Team AG2R, is also a 27-year-old Australian who has the talent to compete in the GC standings, but not to beat Vingegaard or Pogacar.
O’Connor finished in third place for the Criterium du Dauphine, one spot ahead of Hindley. However, he doesn’t have a Grand Tour title like his fellow countryman does. In seven Grand Tour appearances, O’Connor’s best result was fourth in the 2021 Tour de France.
O’Connor had high hopes for the 2022 Tour de France, but didn’t finish the race due to crashes. I expect this talented Australian to be in the Top 10 for the GC standings and make a run towards the Top 5 by the end of the third week. He will need some luck in order to crack the podium.
2023 Tour de France Longshot
David Gaudu (+5000) is my choice for the biggest longshot with any realistic shot at the podium. Unfortunately, he’s heading into the Tour de France with what appears to be a slight regression in form after starting off his 2023 season with a second-place finish at Paris-Nice in March.
Since then, he’s had numerous DNFs and an abysmal 30th place in the Criterium du Dauphine. With that said, Gaudu is France’s best hope to contend for the Yellow Jersey in this year’s Tour de France. And, riding for a Groupama-FDJ, a French team, puts even more pressure on the 26-year-old cyclist.
Nevertheless, Gaudu has improved with each Tour de France appearance. Last year, Gaudu finished fourth which was an improvement from 2021 where he finished 11th. Gaudu didn’t finish in 2020, but was 13th in 2019 and 34th in 2018.
I actually like Gaudu’s chances for a podium spot more than Hindley or O’Connor. However, like the rest of the peloton, Gaudu does not have the overall skills to beat Vingegaard or Pogacar in the high-mountains and time trials.
💛The yellow jersey carries a lot of history, and here’s a quick crash course on its legacy!
💛Le @MaillotjauneLCL symbolise le Tour de France, et voici un cours non exhaustif sur son héritage ! #TDF2023 pic.twitter.com/QmN6wrA0Zz
— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) June 27, 2023
2023 Tour de France Yellow Jersey Prediction
The best cycling betting strategy for the Tour de France is to place a wager on both Vingegaard and Pogacar or pick one cyclist to wager on and then choose a prop bet below.
Since we are here to pick a winner, I love what I saw from Vingegaard in the Criterium du Dauphine. He’s ready for the Tour de France and he has the best team to support him.
With that said, I expect this to be a race that comes down to the final mountain day on Stage 20. With only one time trial (stage 16) in the 2023 Tour de France, this year’s Grand Tour will come down to who has the best legs in the mountains.
Over the last two years, Vingegaard has been the best climber in the Tour de France. I expect that trend to continue this July. I’m taking the reigning Tour de France champion to pull off another victory. However, I expect it to be a closer battle than his 2:43 minute victory over Pogacar last year.
Look for a race that’s decided by less than a minute, and won in the mountains instead of a time trial.
2023 Tour de France Prop Bets
Let’s break down several appealing prop bets for the 2023 Tour de France:
2023 General Classification Prop Bet
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| J. Vingegaard 1st, T. Pogacar 2nd | +250 |
| T. Pogacar 1st, J. Vingegaard 2nd | +350 |
As mentioned above, I like Vingegaard to win. But, a great way to hedge your wager on Vingegaard is to bet on this prop bet by taking the option of Pogacar finishing first and Vingegaard finishing second just like in 2021.
These two men are going to finish first and second this year. The only debate is on who will be first and who will be runner-up.
Rider To Win 1+ Race
| Rider | Odds | Rider | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tadej Pogacar | -500 | Jonas Vingegaard | -400 |
| Mathieu Van Der Poel | -350 | Wout Van Aert | -350 |
| Mads Pedersen | -225 | Julian Alaphilippe | -200 |
| Biniam Girmay | -165 | Thibaut Pinot | +125 |
| Egan Bernal | +150 | Tom Pidcock | +150 |
| David Gaudu | +200 | Mark Cavendish | +200 |
| Mikel Landa | +250 | Romain Bardet | +250 |
All of these riders are capable of winning a Tour de France stage. In fact, most of the options for this prop bet have already won a TDF stage in their careers. You can pick any of the large favorites like Pogacar, Vingegaard, Van Aert or Van Der Poel for this prop bet, and feel very confident in your wager.
For me, I want better value than those favorites. So, I’m taking Biniam Girmay (-165) to pick up his first Tour de France stage win and for the African fans to have a party when Girmay scores a victory in a bunch sprint.
Expect the post-stage celebration for Girmay to be larger than the one we witnessed at the Tour de Suisse a few weeks ago. Girmay outsprinted Van Aert and Arnaud Demare on that day, which led to fans swarming the talented cyclist and cheering him on for what felt like the entire evening.
Rider To Win 2+ Races
| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tadej Pogacar | -180 |
| Wout Van Aert | -165 |
| Jonas Vingegaard | -145 |
| Mads Pedersen | EVEN |
| Mikel Landa | +150 |
| Julian Alaphilippe | +200 |
Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Wout Van Aert are all very capable of winning multiple stages in a Tour de France. These three men have proven that already in their careers. In fact, both Pogacar and Van Aert already have nine TDF stage wins apiece in their respective careers.
Of these three, Van Aert has the best chance of winning two stages. Pogacar and Vingegaard will battle other GC contenders in the mountains where they get most of their stage wins. Vingegaard is a great time trialist, but there are other cyclists who could edge him out in an ITT including his teammate.
Wout Van Aert can win in the mountains, sprints and time trials. He’s the most well-rounded and talented athlete on a bike. At -165 odds, I like the value and the likelihood of Van Aert picking up at least two stage wins in this year’s Tour de France.
Will Jonas Vingegaard and Wout van Aert be able to defend their Tour de France jerseys?#TDF2023 pic.twitter.com/vUvyKjGqpq
— NBC Sports Cycling (@NBCSCycling) June 26, 2023
J. Vingegaard v The Field
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jonas Vingegaard | -110 |
| The Field | -120 |
I believe that Vingegaard will win the 2023 Tour de France. However, if you want to hedge that wager than you can look at taking The Field for this prop bet. Albeit, the odds aren’t as great as the prop bet above where we’re taking Pogacar to finish first and Vingegaard to finish second.
Based on the value we’re getting for The Field option in this wager, and the fact that we can get Vingegaard at Even if we wager on his outright odds, the smart choice is The Field for this prop bet.
T. Pogacar v The Field
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tadej Pogacar | +135 |
| The Field | -175 |
There is a decent chance that Pogacar can win this year’s Tour de France. However, I am taking Vingegaard to wear the Yellow Jersey heading into Paris on the final stage of the race. This means that The Field is also the best betting option for this Tour de France prop bet.
If I’m betting on Pogacar, it would be for the prop bet above where he finishes first and Vingegaard finishes second. Although the value isn’t as good as other prop bets above, take The Field option if you choose to wager on this TDF prop.
