As the biggest spectacle in cycling quickly approaches, it’s time to make your Tour de France predictions for the three-week event! In this article, I explore the latest prices to win the Tour de France and release my exclusive picks.
The best cycling betting sites have updated Tour de France odds for wagering on the 111th edition of the 21-day race. In 2024, the Tour de France is scheduled for June 29 to July 21.
Below, check out the top Tour de France favorites, odds to win, and my complete analysis!
Tour de France 2024 Winner Odds
The following TDF 2024 betting odds (without Jonas Vingegaard) are courtesy of BetUS:
| RIDER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Tadej Pogačar | -350 |
| Primož Roglič | +700 |
| Remco Revenepoel | +1200 |
| Adam Yates | +1200 |
| Carlos Rodriguez | +1400 |
| João Almeida | +2500 |
BetUS and other popular sports betting sites do not include reigning Tour de France winner Jonas Vingegaard in their odds to win.
Although the champ is not 100% certain to participate due to an injury, oddsmakers view him as an overwhelming favorite to win the Tour de France 2024.
If Vingegaard rides and wins, this wager will revert to what is essentially a runner-up bet. The wager assumes that he doesn’t exist for the purpose of paying out wagers.
Tadej Pogačar‘s odds of winning the Tour de France 2024 have shortened since last month. In May, Pogačar was a -250 favorite, so his implied probability at -350 has improved by roughly 6%!
Aside from Pogačar, the current Tour de France 2024 odds do not afford another rider a strong chance of winning.
You can find up-to-date odds on the Tour de France 2024 at BetUS by navigating to Sportsbook > Cycling > Tour de France Outrights.
Tour de France 2024 Route And Key Info
The Tour de France 2024 features 176 of the world’s best long-distance cyclists. The 176 participants are divided into 22 teams of eight riders.
Tour de France 2024 Dates
The Tour de France 2024 will begin on Saturday, June 29, 2024, and conclude on Sunday, July 21, 2024. There are two rest days included on the schedule, which equals 21 days of racing across 21 stages.
Tour de France 2024 Route
The route takes riders through eight flat, four hilly, and seven mountain stages. Four summit finishes are planned at Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d’Adet, Plateau de Beille, Isola 2000, and Col de la Couillole.
🤩 Here it is, the official route of the #TDF2024!
🤩 Voici le parcours officiel du #TDF2024 ! pic.twitter.com/3ORf31AS4T
— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) October 25, 2023
The Tour de France 2024 course takes riders on an incredible 52,230 vertical meter gain during the 21-day event! Due to the Paris Olympic Games, the race will not finish on Champs-Élysées in the streets of Paris.
Instead, the race will begin in Florence, Italy, and conclude in Nice, France.
Tour de France 2024 Prize Pool
The 22 teams and 176 riders will compete for a huge €2.3 million purse! The winner of the overall individual classification will take home €500,000.
2024 Tour de France Favorites
Your sports betting strategy for the Tour de France should take into consideration the top favorites. The top cyclists in the world are so far ahead of the field that it would be a shocker if anyone else wins.
Before proceeding with our Tour de France 2024 predictions, check out the leading favorites to finish first in Nice:
Jonas Vingegaard (OFF)
If Vingegaard is healthy enough to take his ride at the Tour de France 2024, he is expected to win without much resistance. Vingegaard has noted that he will only participate at 100% fitness levels.
The 2022 and 2023 Tour de France winner was spotted training recently 38 days ahead of the race. Vingegaard suffered multiple injuries, including fractured ribs, collarbone fractures, and a punctured lung in a crash at the Itzulia Basque Country race last month.
It’s incredible that the Dane is preparing to run in the Tour after such devastating injuries. Will he be at 100% fitness levels in time for the race? It’s likely going to come down to the wire, but he appears to be heading in the right direction in his recovery.
Postcard from Tignes. 🏞
📸 @MatteoJorg pic.twitter.com/5Vdf5zagWc
— Team Visma | Lease a Bike (@vismaleaseabike) June 16, 2024
The latest news on Vingegaard is that he is on track to ride in the Tour de France. This past weekend, Team Visma posted a picture on X of pre-Tour training in the French Alp. The image included Vingegaard and also Wout van Aert, who have both been questionable to ride in the Tour de France.
That’s bad news for the rest of the Tour de France teams, but great for cycling fans. Vingegaard has participated in three races this year at the O Gran Camino in Spain, Tirreno-Adriatico, and Itzulia Basque Country.
In Spain, he dominated the field, with three of four stage wins and the general classification, mountains classification, and points classification winner!
The size of that crowd in Denmark celebrating Jonas Vingegaard's Tour de France win! 🤯#TDF2023 (Via: @JumboVismaRoad) pic.twitter.com/GsY5wk0EJ6
— NBC Sports Cycling (@NBCSCycling) July 26, 2023
The 27-year-old star followed up with a general classification and mountains classification win at Tirreno-Adriatico in Italy. He ran into the unfortunate incident at Itzulia Basque but is the clear rider to repeat and beat in the Tour de France 2024.
Tadej Pogačar (-350)
If Vingegaard is unable to ride, his Slovenian rival will be the largest beneficiary. Vingegaard ranks as the better long Grand Tour rider, but the edge for overall cycling talent leans to Pogačar.
Nevertheless, in the Tour de France’s format, Pogačar can’t keep pace with Vingegaard for three weeks. When the last one arrives, Vingegaard keeps going and doesn’t show signs of weakening!
Being the next best rider is an accomplishment in its own right, though. Pogačar can’t compete with Vingegaard, but he’s a step ahead of the rest of the field. Therefore, his TDF odds are -250 to win without Vingegaard at BetUS.
Pogačar is coming off a dominant performance in the Giro d’Italia. He won by roughly 10 minutes over Daniel Martinez. Additionally, he won six states in the 21-day race!
It was the largest margin of victory in the Giro d’Italia in six decades! Pogačar toyed with the competition in Vingegaard’s absence.
Six stage wins and 20 days wearing the Maglia Rosa. Nothing short of extraordinary, Tadej Pogačar 💗
.
Sei vittorie di tappa e 20 giorni in Maglia Rosa. Tadej Pogačar, semplicemente straordinario 💗#GirodItalia pic.twitter.com/jGxMtVdtK1— Giro d'Italia (@giroditalia) June 5, 2024
Only seven riders have won the Giro d’Italia and Tour in the same year. The last to do so was Italian Marco Pantani in 1998! Fatigue is often too much for most riders who choose to ride in the Giro, but Pogačar is a special talent.
He will need Vingegaard to miss the Tour or crash again to win. Nevertheless, he is easily the best of the rest in the 2024 field.
Primož Roglič (+700)
Does Primož Roglič have enough fight in him to win his first Tour de France? He’s won every other Grand Tour possible in his career, but the Tour has eluded the Bora-Hansgrohe rider.
The Tour de France 2024 betting odds didn’t move in a favorable direction for Roglič over the last month. In May, his odds to win the Tour de France were +400, while you can get +700 for him as the race approaches.
At 34 years old, has the door closed on his chances? If it happens, Roglič will likely need Vingegaard and Pogačar to take a spill.
Assume that Vingegaard isn’t cleared to race and Pogačar crashes; Roglič could be there to pick up the pieces. However, his form hasn’t been the most promising this year.
In 2024, Roglič finished 10th in the general classification at the eight-stage Paris-Nice race in March. He was part of the crash involving Vingegaard, but escaped serious injury. After winning Stage 1, Roglič dropped to 29th in Stage 2 and 18th in Stage 3.
The three-time Tour de France stage winner and 2023 Giro d’Italia champion has been laser-focused on being in his best form for June. However, Roglič fans better hope his recent lackluster results are simply due to preserving his energy for the Tour. He was in significantly stronger form a year ago.
This is what winning the Giro feels like 👇
Primož Roglič took the stage win and overall lead on Stage 20 at the 2023 Giro d’Italia with a historic time-trial 🙌🏼@rogla @vismaleaseabike pic.twitter.com/iIEOUTqxdC
— Velon CC (@VelonCC) April 29, 2024
He doesn’t look ready to compete for a winning ride over Vingegaard and Pogačar. Roglič’s odds for Tour de France 2024 indicate a 20% chance to win or runner-up behind Vingegaard. I would like +800 odds or higher on Roglič before considering him!
Best Sleepers For The Tour de France 2024
Let’s take a moment to analyze the best sleepers for your 2024 Tour de France betting picks.
Although it’s highly unlikely that any rider will bother Vingegaard or Pogačar, accidents and mishaps happen. This is where there could be an opening for a huge upset in Nice.
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Another youngster attracting attention is 23-year-old Carlos Rodriguez. Although he couldn’t beat Ayuso in the Itzulia Basque, Rodriguez won the final stage of the event!
He finished 2nd in the general classification and 4th in the points classification. The Spaniard followed up with his best effort of the year in the Tour de Romandie. Rodriguez was the overall winner of the five-stage race.
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João Almeida doesn’t have the most favorable 2024 TDF odds, but the Portuguese rider is entering in top form. Almeida most recently had a strong effort in the Tour de Suisse.
He finished 2nd in the general classification with two stage wins in the eight-stage race! Almeida finished in the top 5 in six stages. Pogačar’s UAE Team Emirates teammate is likely to have a promising run in the Tour de France 2024.
The 25-year-old is peaking at the right time and should have a big chance if he catches a break or two in France.
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The rider who benefited the most from Vingegaard’s crash was Juan Ayuso. The young 21-year-old won the overall Itzulia Basque title in the six-stage event. Ayuso is a rising star in the world of competitive cycling.
While he is some years off from rising to the apex of his sport, he is learning from his UAE-Team Emirates teammate Pogačar. After recently taking advantage of an accident-filled race, could Ayuso do it again in the Tour de France?
Ayuso suffered a terrible crash of his own this year. He pulled out of the Criterium du Dauphine following a high-speed incident in Stage 5. If he had to, Ayuso likely could have continued, though he exited to not put his Tour de France campaign at risk.
At +2800, I recommend including Ayuso for your Tour de France picks as a longshot!
Tour de France 2024 Prediction and Best Bets
When it comes to the Tour de France 2024, the oddsmakers mostly have this one right. Currently, Pogačar is -350 to win without Vingegaard included in this bet. While this clears him as the odds-on favorite, I have the superstar booked between -400 to -500 odds!
So, why is he being listed as a -350 favorite to win at BetUS? Simply put, it’s difficult to follow up a Giro d’Italia victory with a winning performance in France. The events are considered too close to one another to recover for a three-week Grand Tour race.
However, Pogačar and Vingegaard are in classes of their own right now. Pogačar is riding in the Giro as if he could nap and still win. Against a weak field, he hasn’t needed to expel as much stamina as typically required to win the Giro.
For my final 2024 Tour de France betting pick, Pogačar to win without Vingegaard is a bargain at -350 odds. If Vingegaard is riding, he is the clear No. 1, but Pogačar wins otherwise!
Where to Bet on the Tour de France 2024?
Tour de France 2024 odds are available on a variety of sports betting apps. However, it’s important to place your wagers at a highly reputable sportsbook. Also, consider the number of markets and opportunities at your betting site of choice.
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