NFL Week 9 Upset Picks: Best Underdog Predictions

Falcons to Beat Patriots (+205)

The matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots presents a high‑value underdog opportunity with Atlanta listed at +205 on the moneyline.

Atlanta come in hungry after a rough outing last week, and there might be no quicker path to redemption than derailing rookie Drake Maye’s MVP‑campaign narrative. On defense, the Falcons shine through the air: they allow a league‑low 149.1 passing yards per game, making them one of the best in the league in that department.

"We just gotta execute and make it happen" pic.twitter.com/JoNrjZU7lH

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) October 29, 2025

Meanwhile, New England’s passing defense has been less than stellar, surrendering over 220 yards per game through the air. That mismatch sets the stage for Atlanta’s aerial attack to thrive.

On offense, the Falcons’ workhorse Bijan Robinson ranks third in the league in scrimmage yards with 962 total so far. Last week, he had a season‑low 12 touches for 48 yards, suggesting a rebound is due. Expect Atlanta to get him the ball early and often, especially given the space afforded by New England’s vulnerable pass defense and the Falcons’ receiving corps.

All signs point toward this being the kind of game Atlanta can control. They have the defensive tools to stymie the Patriots’ passing game and the offensive weapons to exploit a clear weakness. At +205, this underdog moneyline play offers solid upside on a team positioned to pounce.

Bengals to Beat Bears (+138)

The Bears are priced at -160 on the moneyline, but this line feels like a trap. Chicago were thoroughly outclassed by a Ravens team led by backup Tyler Huntley, surrendering 30 points while putting up just 16 themselves against a defense that usually gives up over 30 per game. Now they get a Bengals offense firing on all cylinders, and it’s hard to imagine things going any better.

Ja’Marr Chase has been unstoppable in recent weeks, with 38 catches on 54 targets over the last three games. His quick-release chemistry with the quarterback has become the Bengals’ go-to formula, masking their lack of a consistent run game.

That’s a huge problem for a Bears defense that’s already getting gashed for over 140 rushing yards per game. If they can’t stop the run or the short game, this could get ugly.

Chicago’s own offense remains stuck in neutral. They couldn’t take advantage of a bad Ravens defense and now face another weak unit in Cincinnati. But until the Bears prove they can consistently move the ball, betting on them to win, even against a Jake Browning-led Bengals team, feels like wishful thinking.

Vikings to Beat Lions (+380)

At +380, the Vikings are one of the biggest underdogs on the board this week, but there’s real upset potential brewing in this divisional clash with the Lions.

Extremely confident and ready to get after it pic.twitter.com/MzTWID79Wm

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 29, 2025

Minnesota’s defense has quietly been one of the league’s stingiest through the air, allowing under 190 passing yards per game and notching 18 sacks in seven contests. Disrupting Jared Goff is critical, and the Vikings’ front has the tools to do just that.

Offensively, the return of J.J. McCarthy could be the spark Minnesota needs. While his early starts were a mixed bag, he showed poise leading a comeback in Week 1 and now gets a full week of prep against a banged-up Lions secondary. Detroit’s defense has been wrecked by injuries again this season, and that vulnerability could open the floodgates for Justin Jefferson.

If Jefferson gets loose and McCarthy can stay composed, this game might not be the blowout Vegas expects. There’s value in backing the Vikings to stun Detroit outright.

1. Identify Teams/Players That Excel as Underdogs

Certain NFL teams prefer to play with their backs against the wall. Some players and head coaches are at their best when they are in an underdog role.

The competitive spirit of wanting to prove doubters wrong can be a strong motivator! One of the most effective ways to identify these squads is to note teams that have a strong record as an underdog on the moneyline.

Additionally, bettors can use against-the-spread (ATS) data to help formulate their game plan. For instance, the Arizona Cardinals (7-2-0 ATS), Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4-1 ATS), Los Angeles Rams (7-4-0 ATS), and Philadelphia Eagles (4-0-0 ATS) were great underdog NFL picks last season.

2. Compare Matchups/Strengths and Weaknesses

There will always be an underdog and a favorite in every NFL matchup! However, did bookies miss something in their analysis? For instance, does the underdog have one glaring advantage over a weakness of the favorite side?

It requires digging into advanced statistics to find these small edges on the football field. The public and online sportsbooks are well aware of the major mismatches in games. We recommend researching these strengths and weaknesses, but also looking at the game within the game.

For instance, does the favorite have an injury or depth issues flying under the radar that the public is ignoring? Injuries to star players aren’t the only determining factor in the result of games.

The health and status of the offensive line is also a huge factor that can’t be ignored! There are great teams in the NFL that can crumble due to problems in the trenches, so always check on this aspect for your best underdog picks in the NFL.

3. Look for Letdown and Look-ahead Spots

Recency bias plays a huge role in how point spreads and NFL odds are crafted. Bettors react to what just happened instead of looking at the whole picture.

Following a big win, the line is generally impacted in favor of this team the ensuing week. It’s important to keep in mind that letdowns can happen afterward. This is especially true for mediocre to good teams that aren’t quite in elite territory.

However, it can bite any team in the NFL that isn’t prepared, especially on a short week! Thursday Night Football has a knack of sneaking up on teams only days following a signature victory.

Conversely, there is the classic look-ahead spot of favorites having their attention on a more formidable opponent or rivalry matchup the following week. These teams tend to go through the motions and fail to focus on the task at hand!

4. Line Movement and Line Shopping Are Key

I always monitor line movement throughout the week for my best NFL underdog picks and other selections. It’s also worth researching where the money is flowing, and which team is seeing the biggest bets.

If the shift isn’t following the bets on a public favorite, bookmakers are confident that they have it right and not the majority of bettors. In some instances, there is reverse line movement, where the odds move against the money.

Additionally, line shop for the best odds across multiple sports betting apps and sites. It can be the difference between winning and losing your best NFL underdog picks this week! Let’s examine a quick example between two popular bookies:

Lucky Rebel:

• • Dallas Cowboys +7 (-109)
  • Philadelphia Eagles -7 (-112)

BetOnline:

• • Dallas Cowboys +7.5 (-115)
  • Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 (-105)

If you like the Cowboys as an underdog, consider placing your bets at BetOnline! Conversely, Lucky Rebel offers a fantastic line on the Eagles as a favorite at -7, instead of the -7.5 at BetOnline.

The Sports Geek recommends checking out the odds at these reputable sportsbooks:

• • Bovada
  • Lucky Rebel
  • BetWhale
  • BetOnline
  • BetUS