NFL Week 2 Upset Picks: Best Underdog Predictions

Colts to Beat Broncos (+100)

Indianapolis shocked the NFL world in Week 1 with a dominant 33-8 win over Miami. The Colts defense held Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane to under 100 combined receiving yards.

Denver’s defense was also impressive in Week 1, sacking rookie Cam Ward six times and allowing fewer than 120 passing yards.

not 1, not 2 but 3. pic.twitter.com/jkWZpgFmhf

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) September 7, 2025

The Broncos’ offense, unfortunately, had its fair share of struggles against the Titans’ defense. Bo Nix finished with fewer than 200 passing yards and a QBR of 19.2. Nix is on the road this week, so his struggles are likely to continue against a stout Colts defense.

Despite Nix’s poor performance last week, Denver is a 1-point road favorite in the latest NFL Week 2 betting odds.

Daniel Jones was historically great against Miami, leading the Colts to points on all seven of the team’s offensive drives. Jones is not good enough to keep that streak going, especially against a defense like Denver’s.

Even with Jones at quarterback, though,  the Colts are better offensively than the Titans. If their defense steps up like it did in Week 1, then Indy should be able to win again and improve to 2-0 at home this season.

Chiefs to beat Eagles (-102)

Another home underdog that is a good bet to secure an upset win in Week 2 is the Kansas City Chiefs. Like the Colts, the Chiefs are getting 1 point at home this weekend.

Kansas City faces the Eagles just seven months removed from their Super Bowl 59 matchup. Philly dismantled the Chiefs and led 40-6 late in the fourth quarter. Their last matchup was not pretty, but a lot has changed in the months since.

Patrick Mahomes describes what it's like to rewatch Super Bowl film ahead of hosting the Eagles this week.

He says, "You're going to have failures in the league, it's about how you respond." pic.twitter.com/FgaMw3b6mr

— Sports Radio 810 WHB (@SportsRadio810) September 10, 2025

The Eagles’ defense lost multiple starters during free agency. Their absence was noticeable in Week 1, when the Eagles struggled to contain the Cowboys. It also did not help that DT Jalen Carter missed the game after spitting on Dak Prescott after the opening kickoff.

Philly should be better this week with Carter returning to the field. However, if the Eagles cannot generate pressure without a blitz, they will be in trouble this week.

Another difference this week is that the game is being played in KC instead of at a neutral site. The Eagles must contend with a hostile crowd throughout the game.

Also, the Chiefs’ defense is much better on paper than Dallas’s. Philadelphia struggled to move the ball against the Cowboys, racking up fewer than 200 total yards. If those struggles continue this weekend, KC will get its revenge over the defending champions.

Buccaneers to Beat Texans (+125)

My third underdog pick this week is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs opened the season with a crucial win on the road in Atlanta. Now, Tampa Bay is getting 1.5 points for its Monday Night Football matchup with Houston.

The Texans and the Bucs won the AFC South and NFC South, respectively, last season. However, unlike Tampa, the Texans could not start their season with a road win. Houston lost 14-9 to the Rams in Los Angeles.

Emeka really called game 👏 pic.twitter.com/yshPs6ArIW

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) September 10, 2025

On one hand, the Texans’ defense held one of the best quarterback-coach combos in the NFL to two scoring drives. However, on the other hand, Houston’s offense was unable to manage a single touchdown drive.

Also, all three of Houston’s field goals came in the first half of their Week 1 loss.

The Texans’ offensive struggles are not a new phenomenon. Including the playoffs last season, Houston has scored 14 or fewer points in three of their last five games. In two of those games, last week and their Christmas Day matchup with Baltimore, the Texans were helped to single digits.

Tampa Bay’s defense is far from the best unit in the league. However, it is good enough to keep them in this game. The Bucs offense is explosive and will be the deciding factor in this MNF game.

1. Identify Teams/Players That Excel as Underdogs

Certain NFL teams prefer to play with their backs against the wall. Some players and head coaches are at their best when they are in an underdog role.

The competitive spirit of wanting to prove doubters wrong can be a strong motivator! One of the most effective ways to identify these squads is to note teams that have a strong record as an underdog on the moneyline.

Additionally, bettors can use against-the-spread (ATS) data to help formulate their game plan. For instance, the Arizona Cardinals (7-2-0 ATS), Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4-1 ATS), Los Angeles Rams (7-4-0 ATS), and Philadelphia Eagles (4-0-0 ATS) were great underdog NFL picks last season.

2. Compare Matchups/Strengths and Weaknesses

There will always be an underdog and a favorite in every NFL matchup! However, did bookies miss something in their analysis? For instance, does the underdog have one glaring advantage over a weakness of the favorite side?

It requires digging into advanced statistics to find these small edges on the football field. The public and online sportsbooks are well aware of the major mismatches in games. We recommend researching these strengths and weaknesses, but also looking at the game within the game.

For instance, does the favorite have an injury or depth issues flying under the radar that the public is ignoring? Injuries to star players aren’t the only determining factor in the result of games.

The health and status of the offensive line is also a huge factor that can’t be ignored! There are great teams in the NFL that can crumble due to problems in the trenches, so always check on this aspect for your best underdog picks in the NFL.

3. Look for Letdown and Look-ahead Spots

Recency bias plays a huge role in how point spreads and NFL odds are crafted. Bettors react to what just happened instead of looking at the whole picture.

Following a big win, the line is generally impacted in favor of this team the ensuing week. It’s important to keep in mind that letdowns can happen afterward. This is especially true for mediocre to good teams that aren’t quite in elite territory.

However, it can bite any team in the NFL that isn’t prepared, especially on a short week! Thursday Night Football has a knack of sneaking up on teams only days following a signature victory.

Conversely, there is the classic look-ahead spot of favorites having their attention on a more formidable opponent or rivalry matchup the following week. These teams tend to go through the motions and fail to focus on the task at hand!

4. Line Movement and Line Shopping Are Key

I always monitor line movement throughout the week for my best NFL underdog picks and other selections. It’s also worth researching where the money is flowing, and which team is seeing the biggest bets.

If the shift isn’t following the bets on a public favorite, bookmakers are confident that they have it right and not the majority of bettors. In some instances, there is reverse line movement, where the odds move against the money.

Additionally, line shop for the best odds across multiple sports betting apps and sites. It can be the difference between winning and losing your best NFL underdog picks this week! Let’s examine a quick example between two popular bookies:

Lucky Rebel:

• • Dallas Cowboys +7 (-109)
  • Philadelphia Eagles -7 (-112)

BetOnline:

• • Dallas Cowboys +7.5 (-115)
  • Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 (-105)

If you like the Cowboys as an underdog, consider placing your bets at BetOnline! Conversely, Lucky Rebel offers a fantastic line on the Eagles as a favorite at -7, instead of the -7.5 at BetOnline.

The Sports Geek recommends checking out the odds at these reputable sportsbooks:

• • Bovada
  • Lucky Rebel
  • BetWhale
  • BetOnline
  • BetUS