NFL Draft 2026 Betting Preview: Odds, Prop Bets, and Predictions

2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds and Predictions

Fernando Mendoza is a massive -50000 betting favorite to become the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. At that price, the market is assigning him about a 99.4% implied probability of going to the Las Vegas Raiders with the first selection. Mendoza has remained a large favorite for over a month now, with the Hoosiers’ QB at -17500 for the last two months, and recently rising to -50000.

Those are overwhelming odds, essentially treating Mendoza as a lock. So, what would have to happen for him to slip from that spot? Realistically, it would take something extreme: a major off-field scandal or a serious, potentially career-threatening injury. Barring that kind of event, Mendoza is going No. 1 to the Raiders. With the NFL Draft tonight, it’s highly unlikely either scenario happens.

A Heisman winner and National Champion.

All eyes are on Fernando Mendoza this year 👀

2026 NFL Combine starts Feb. 26 on @nflnetwork
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/BkwKeS9h1B

— NFL (@NFL) February 13, 2026

On the field, he just led Indiana to one of the most improbable seasons in college football history. The Hoosiers weren’t viewed as Big Ten contenders, let alone a legitimate threat to win the CFP Championship. Mendoza shattered those expectations, throwing for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just six interceptions while completing 72% of his passes.

The former Cal quarterback also showcased his mobility, adding 276 rushing yards and seven scores on the ground. For a Raiders’ team desperate for a long-term answer at quarterback after the failure of the Geno Smith experiment, Mendoza checks every box. It’s not an especially deep quarterback class, but Mendoza looks every bit the franchise passer Las Vegas has been searching for.

I bet on Mendoza at -160 in mid-December, but there is no value at -50000. In other words, pass on these odds, and focus on other NFL Draft betting picks. At this point, though, I’m surprised that Mendoza isn’t -100000, or this prop bet taken off the board, in what appears like a lock.

2026 NFL Draft Second Pick Odds and Predictions

After David Bailey took over as the favorite briefly after reports suggested he was held in high regard by the New York Jets, Arvell Reese has overtaken the prominent EDGE rusher from Texas Tech. That being said, it remains close, with Reese holding a 56.5% implied probability to be the second pick of the 2026 NFL Draft.

The news prompted bettors to back Bailey, but the money has swayed back in favor of the talented Ohio State linebacker. On March 12, Reese was favored at -150 and Bailey listed at +185 before the odds shifted in favor of Bailey. Now, we’re closer to where the market was over a month ago with Arvell favored.

The rest of the board is well out of the conversation, with several players tied as huge longshots at +12500. The pick is down to Bailey and Reese, and I’m going to remain with the selection I’ve been confident with since the start.

The news surrounding the NFL Draft changes quickly, many of which aren’t true. There are still teams that are doing their homework, and others will send out smokescreens. With that in mind, I was never swayed by the Jets being completely confident in Bailey as their pick.

Arvell Reese showed off his full repertoire at the NFL combine 👏 @ohiostatefb pic.twitter.com/JKyJOqiHby

— NFL (@NFL) March 5, 2026

Reese is more of a tweener, offering valuable versatility to any defense. He can rush the passer, plug gaps against the run, and chase plays sideline to sideline. With his skill set, he can come off the edge, play off the ball, or help control the middle of the field.

Bailey has the more explosive first step and profiles as a more traditional EDGE rusher, but Reese is the more complete defender, something NFL teams consistently covet.

If the Jets want a player who reliably fills gaps and finds the football, Reese is their guy. He still has room to grow as a pass rusher, but with another move or two added to his toolbox, he has the upside to become a difference-maker at the next level.

The Jets are expected to run a 3-4 defense this year, and Reese would fit the system perfectly as an athletic linebacker. With this in mind, the Jets are most likely going to side with Reese at No. 2. Bailey wouldn’t be a surprise by any means, but Reese presents stronger value at -130 odds.

Jeremiyah Love Draft Position Odds and Predictions

• • Over 4.5 (+115)
  • Under 4.5 (-150)

Perhaps the most NFL-ready player in this year’s draft is Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love. The explosive playmaker shouldn’t have to wait long to hear his name called.

Coming off a storied career with the Fighting Irish, Love projects as an immediate contributor at the next level. He averaged 6.9 yards per carry in back-to-back seasons and totaled 2,497 rushing yards with 35 touchdowns over the last two years.

JEREMIYAH LOVE GOES 98 YARDS FOR THE TOUCHDOWN 😱 pic.twitter.com/SSAjPnrRtt

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) December 21, 2024

Love also brings real value in the passing game. He caught 55 passes for 517 yards out of the backfield, giving offensive coordinators another way to attack defenses. Add in his above-average pass protection, and you have a true three-down back who rarely needs to come off the field.

All of that makes Love one of the hottest commodities in this year’s draft. I could see him coming off the board as early as No. 3 overall. While I expect the Arizona Cardinals to lean toward Bailey, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they pivot to Love instead.

If Arizona passes, the Tennessee Titans feel like a natural landing spot. They still haven’t replaced Derrick Henry since he left for the Ravens, and the offense has paid the price. Pairing quarterback Cam Ward with a dynamic runner like Love would immediately raise the ceiling of Tennessee’s attack.

So, Love under 4.5 picks is one of my best NFL Draft prop bets.

Houston Texans First Position Drafted Odds and Predictions

While teams don’t always draft for need and sometimes simply take the best player available, the Houston Texans can’t afford to pass on one of the top offensive linemen in this class.

There are several prospects in this draft who project to have elite NFL careers, and this is the perfect time for Houston to continue investing in the trenches this offseason. They showed modest gains after a disastrous 2024 season, but there is still work to do.

If you wondered why CJ Stroud's numbers declined from his rookie year to his second year, here's a good reason why pic.twitter.com/yybhRIUsOi

— Football Analysis (@FBallAnalysisYT) April 2, 2025

With the Texans’ offensive line ranking among the worst in 2025, upgrading the unit has to be a top priority. The betting market backs this up: the over/under for offensive linemen drafted in the first round is set at 7.5, with the over juiced to -320.

That number speaks to a league-wide expectation that teams will aggressively target offensive linemen early, an expectation Houston fits perfectly.

The Texans already have their franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud and a strong group of skill players for him to target. What’s holding them back from reaching their full potential is a lackluster offensive line. Owning the 28th overall pick in the NFL Draft leaves them with plenty of options to address it.

Houston could explore a trade, either moving up or down the board to land the right prospect. A move up could put them in position to select Spencer Fano or Kadyn Proctor. Miami OT Francis Mauigoa would be an ideal addition, but he’s likely to be off the board inside the top 10.

If the Texans decide to trade back, Penn State’s Olaivavega Ioane and OG Keylan Lutledge become intriguing targets who should still be available later in the second round.

Regardless of how the board falls or which trade scenario they pursue, the most likely outcome is that Houston uses its first pick on an offensive lineman. They have re-tooled their offensive line with the addition of OT Braden Smith and will continue looking at bulking up.

Given their roster construction, last season’s struggles up front, and the market’s expectation of a run on linemen, the Texans to draft an offensive lineman first stands out as one of the best 2026 NFL Draft prop bets.

1st Wide Receiver Drafted Odds and Predictions

As one of my most confident 2026 NFL Draft props, Carnell Tate going off the board first among the wide receivers is my top pick. Tate has a fairly sizable lead over the rest of the receiver class, but I was expecting his odds to be closer to -650 and not where he’s currently priced.

Previously, he was -190 in March, and surged to -300 in March. With Tyson attracting attention recently, there has been new money coming in on the talented prospect from Arizona State. That said, Tate should probably be at -225 rather than -150 at the moment.

Tyson has battled injuries throughout his career, which further pushes Tate’s stock higher.

In other words, I recommend getting on this bet before his odds likely push higher tonight. Tate heads to the NFL on the heels of catching 51 receptions for 875 yards and nine touchdowns. Despite missing three games with a calf injury, Tate put up impressive numbers.

JULIAN SAYIN LAUNCHES IT TO CARNELL TATE! TOUCHDOWN @OhioStateFB 🔥

📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/CduVmL4PLM

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 18, 2025

He would have easily eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark and 10 touchdowns if he had played a full season. Tate has fantastic hands and route running ability. There was some talk about his 40-time not being up to expectations, but it isn’t important when you are an elite route runner and pass catcher like Tate.

He gets separation and knows how to find soft zones in the defense. There isn’t another wide receiver in the draft that does it as well as Tate. Tyson is the only competition, but his lengthy injury history doesn’t make him the safer option. He’s likely the first receiver called, so I suggest backing him as one of the best NFL Draft 2026 betting picks.

Ty Simpson Draft Position Odds and Predictions

• • Over 29.5 (-105)
  • Under 29.5 (-125)

Adding to my NFL Draft picks, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson should join Mendoza as one of two quarterbacks taken in the first round. Simpson has been a major talking point leading up to Pittsburgh, with opinions on him all over the map.

Mocks have placed him anywhere from the middle of the first round to the late first, or even sliding into Day 2. Depending on who you talk to, Simpson is either destined to be a bust or one of the steals of the draft. The 23-year-old is a polarizing prospect, but I believe he’ll be off the board before the 30th pick.

Right now, a mid-to-late first-round selection looks like Simpson’s most realistic range. The Arizona Cardinals hold picks No. 3 and No. 34, and there are strong rumors they’ll trade up from 34 into the first round. If that happens, Simpson is a prime candidate to be the target of that move.

If it isn’t the Cardinals, the New York Jets or Pittsburgh Steelers could make a play for Simpson. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Los Angeles Rams or Detroit Lions get involved as they look for eventual successors to Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff. I grabbed the Rams to draft Simpson at +600 last month, and I still like the logic behind that position.

The Los Angeles Rams have done extensive work on Ty Simpson, per Tom Pelissero…

Any shot the Rams draft him? pic.twitter.com/IHp1EEVWdu

— LAFB Network (@LAFBNetwork) April 22, 2026

For a bit of added insurance, Lucky Rebel is offering Simpson to be drafted in the first round at -275. However, I expect a team to take a swing on him somewhere between picks 20 and 28. That’s why I see strong value on his draft position under 29.5 at -125.