Best NFL Parlay for Week 4: Our Picks for the Weekend

Cam Ward is still searching for his first win of his NFL career. The bad news is that Ward and the Titans face one of the stingiest defenses in the league: the Houston Texans.

Houston has allowed 17 PPG this year, tied for the fifth-fewest through three games.

CJ Stroud has played 34 regular season games in his career…

The 17 games before his infamous photo
– 4,602 pass yards
– 26 TDs
– 5 INTs

The 17 games since
– 3,628 pass yards
– 18 TDs
– 13 INTs pic.twitter.com/dUdXud9QVQ

— Underdog (@Underdog) September 16, 2025

The good news for Titans fans is that C.J. Stroud has been unrecognizable this season. Houston’s offense has averaged 12.7 PPG, the fewest in the league. Stroud and company are averaging just 172.3 passing YPG, the seventh-fewest this season.

To make matters worse, Stroud has completed over 66% of his attempts just once this season. He also has just two TDs to three interceptions so far this season. The third-year quarterback has been sacked many times this season and has a 40 QBR overall this year.

Ward’s offense is only gaining 133.7 passing YPG, the least in the NFL, and that is unlikely to improve this week. However, the Texans’ offensive struggles will prevent them from winning by 7+ points this weekend, and the Titans are the better choice in the spread market.

Another leg in my Week 4 NFL parlay is for New Orleans and Buffalo to combine for more than 48 points this week.

𝗗𝗜𝗗 𝗬𝗢𝗨 𝗞𝗡𝗢𝗪?: The #Bills defense is giving up the 2nd fewest pass yards per game.

131.3 yards allowed per game is second to the #Falcons 131.0 yards per game.#BuiltInBuffalo | #GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/eqL13fc7BF

— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) September 25, 2025

The Bills are the biggest favorites of the weekend, laying more than two touchdowns at home against the Saints. Buffalo is the fourth-highest scoring team through three weeks, racking up 102 points (34 PPG) so far.

New Orleans, conversely, has allowed opponents to score an average of 30 PPG. Last week, the Saints fell down 21-0 on the road against the Seahawks. Seattle ended the game with 44 points, cruising to an easy home W.

Buffalo should jump out to an early lead and win this game comfortably. Any Saints touchdowns in garbage time will only help the game go over 48 total points.

The Browns’ shocking victory in Week 3 has put the Packers’ Super Bowl hype on pause. Cleveland has a chance to upset another NFC North powerhouse this week in Detroit.

Insane: Myles Garrett beat the tackle so bad he had the Packers OL yelling "Jordan run!" 😭😭 pic.twitter.com/efI22QjsVZ

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 26, 2025

If this game were in Cleveland, I would give the Browns a chance. Myles Garrett and company have allowed just 13.5 PPG at home this year. Unfortunately, in their one road game, the Browns gave up 41 points to the Ravens.

Detroit has scored 90 points over the last two games, including a 52-point performance in their last home game. The Lions (-575) should beat the Browns this week to improve to 3-1.

I prefer the Lions’ moneyline for this parlay as it is much safer than their point spread. Detroit is laying 10 points against the Browns. They could very well win by double digits, but the Browns’ defense could keep them in the game if they can pressure Jared Goff.

The fourth and final leg of my Week 4 parlay is for the Chiefs (+125) to secure the home upset over the Ravens. Kansas City and Baltimore are both 1-2 entering this marquee matchup. However, they have earned their losing records in drastically different ways.

KC’s offensive struggles led them to an 0-2 start. However, after struggling again in the first half on Sunday Night Football, the Chiefs’ offense looked better in the second half of their 22-9 win over the Giants.

Derrick Henry crashing out after the fumble 🥴 (via @NFL)

pic.twitter.com/rits81k0hi

— Overtime (@overtime) September 23, 2025

Baltimore, on the other hand, is averaging an NFL-best 37 PPG and should be 3-0. Unfortunately for Ravens’ fans, the team’s defense has melted down in the second half of two of their games, losing to Buffalo and Detroit. Derrick Henry’s uncharacteristic fumbles have not helped the Ravens, either.

The Chiefs have been the boogeyman for many teams in the AFC, and the Ravens are no exception. Lamar Jackson is 1-5 against Patrick Mahomes in his career.

Mahomes and company should put on a better offensive performance this week against a Ravens’ defense allowing 32 PPG, the second-most in the NFL. Xavier Worthy is also expected to return, increasing the odds KC can secure the home upset over the visiting Ravens.