Aaron Judge Odds and Props — Can Judge Make Yankees’ Fans “All Rise” in 2026?

• Over 155.5 (-115)
• Under 155.5 (-115)

To get a good idea of what Judge usually does, let’s take away his two short seasons. He played 27 in his first season in 2016, when he was brought up in August, and 28 games in 2020, when the season was shortened and he battled injuries.

Without these two, Judge has had at least 155 hits four times, and those have come in the last five seasons. In 2017, he had 154 hits. The right fielder has had 180 and 179 hits in the last two seasons, respectively.

2025 MLB leaders in Batting Average on Balls in Play:

Aaron Judge, .376
Brice Turang, .356
Jordan Beck, .351
Gavin Lux, .351
Trea Turner, .350
James Wood, .350

BABIP tells you how often a batted ball becomes a hit — excluding HRs & strikeouts. Judge leading this list is a… pic.twitter.com/2caoX02PNq

— RotoWire (@RotoWire) March 5, 2026

I would lean towards the over in 2026 for Judge, one of the very best hitters in the game. He led the majors in batting average last season, and he was third in 2024. I can’t see Judge dropping off that badly at 33 years old, not this year.

If he’s fit, I can certainly see him going close to last two years, so that would be an easy over.

• Over 49.5 (-115)
• Under 49.5 (-115)

Judge was fourth in the majors in 2025 with 53 home runs, which was down from 58 last season, and his 62-homer campaign in 2022 (he hit 37 in 106 games in 2023). He has reached the 50-homer mark four times in his career.

Aaron Judge is the first player in MLB history to hit 33 or more home runs before the All-Star break in three different seasons (2022, 2024 and 2025). pic.twitter.com/RACBUTtHkJ

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) July 8, 2025

It’s not just Yankee Stadium and its short right-field fence that helps Judge. He hit 26 homers at home last season, but 27 came on the road. Judge is that good of a hitter that he can knock it out of the park almost anywhere he goes.

This is another Aaron Judge where I’ll take the over, and I think it’s a bargain at -115, as I think it should be closer to -150. Power is usually the last skill to go for a hitter like Judge, who is also 6’7” and 280 pounds. If he stays healthy, I believe Judge will have another 50-homer season.

• Over 113.5 (-115)
• Under 113.5 (-115)

Judge drove in 114 runs last season, which is down from 144 in 2024, and he had 131 RBIs in 2022. He definitely missed Juan Soto’s ability to get on base in front of him before Soto left for the New York Mets.

Judge typically hits second in the lineup, so he’s banking on a big season from Trent Grisham in front of him. The center fielder is back with the Yankees after signing a one-year deal worth $22 million, which means Grisham is in a contract year again.

However, I’m skeptical about the bottom of the lineup’s ability to get on base. Those three are projected to be catcher Austin Wells, shortstop Jose Caballero, and third baseman Ryan McMahon. Wells hit .219 last season, McMahon hit .214, and Caballero hit .236, although he did hit .266 in 40 games after he was traded from Tampa Bay. Caballero is also not certain to start the season, even with Anthony Volpe injured. The Yankees have played McMahon at shortstop in spring training.

I’m going to take the under here in my Aaron Judge props. While I still have faith in Judge’s hitting ability, it’s the surrounding players who have to get on base, and l don’t trust them.