As anticipation builds for the 2026 baseball postseason, online sportsbooks have released updated MLB MVP odds. With favorites in the American and National League seemingly out of reach, are both races over in mid-September?
In this betting preview, I’ll break down the latest markets, evaluate the top contenders, and share my best MLB MVP predictions for 2026.
Who Will Win 2026 MLB MVP?
Chicago Cubs’ centerfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the National League MVP race, while Yordan Alvarez has established a significant lead over Junior Caminero in the American League. Both players have separated themselves from the rest of their respective fields with outstanding 2026 campaigns.
Crow-Armstrong has been one of the biggest breakout stars in MLB this season, putting together an exceptional all-around campaign for the Cubs. His production at the plate, combined with his elite defense and baserunning, has put him in a class of his own in the NL. Ohtani remains among the league’s biggest stars, but Crow-Armstrong’s dominant season has made him the player to beat.
The AL race has also shifted considerably, with Alvarez now well ahead of Caminero. The Astros slugger has continued to produce at an elite level throughout the season, while Caminero has enjoyed a tremendous breakout campaign of his own. With the regular season winding down, we’ll look at the leading candidates in greater detail below.
MLB 2026 MVP Betting Odds
With two regular season MVPs up for grabs in the MLB, let’s break down the board into separate sections. Here are the MLB MVP odds for the AL and NL, courtesy of Lucky Rebel:
2026 AL MVP Odds
PLAYER
ODDS
Yordan Alvarez (HOU)
-15000
Junior Caminero (TB)
+1200
Cam Schlittler (NYY)
+5000
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC)
+10000
Ben Rice (NYY)
+20000
Yordan Alvarez (-15000) has pulled away as the overwhelming favorite at top MLB betting sites as he looks to capture his first AL MVP award. The Astros slugger has put together a dominant 2026 campaign and has created a massive gap between himself and the rest of the American League field.
Aaron Judge entered the 2026 season as a +200 favorite but disappeared from the hunt after an injury held him out for a considerable amount of time.
As a result, Alvarez’ closest projected challenger is Tampa Bay Rays’ third baseman Junior Caminero (+1200). Caminero has enjoyed a breakout season and remains firmly in the MVP conversation, but he sits well behind Alvarez in the current race.
Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (+10000) is another notable name, though he has an even larger mountain to climb with the regular season nearing its conclusion.
New York Yankees’ pitcher Cam Schlittler (+5000) and teammate Ben Rice (+20000) round out the current group of leading contenders. With Alvarez holding such a substantial advantage, the focus is now on whether Caminero or one of the long-shot candidates can make a late push and dramatically close the gap.
2026 NL MVP Odds
PLAYER
ODDS
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHI)
OFF
Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
OFF
Shohei Ohtani entered the 2026 season as the clear preseason favorite for NL MVP honors. At -130, his odds carried a 56.5% implied probability of winning the award and tying Barry Bonds’ mark of four straight MVP victories. However, the NL MVP picture has changed dramatically throughout the season.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as the overwhelming frontrunner and has separated himself so significantly from the rest of the field that sportsbooks have taken his NL MVP odds off the board. With the Cubs star now viewed as a virtual lock to win the award, there is little value or need for sportsbooks to continue posting a conventional betting price on the NL MVP market.
Ohtani is also off the board after entering the season as the favorite, while the likes of Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. have failed to close the gap on Crow-Armstrong. At this stage of the season, the NL MVP race has effectively become Crow-Armstrong’s to lose, with the market reflecting just how dominant his campaign has been.
You can find up-to-date MLB MVP 2026 odds at Lucky Rebel by navigating to All Sports (A-Z) > Baseball > A-Z > MLB Awards > AL/NL > MVP.
AL MVP Favorites for 2026
Following a tight race to win the AL MVP in 2025, Alvarez has made the 2026 campaign a lopsided affair in September. Let’s break down the final AL MVP odds and his closest rival below:
Yordan Alvarez (-15000)
Alvarez has transformed the 2026 AL MVP race into a runaway, with the Astros slugger now sitting at an astronomical -15000. His production provides plenty of justification for his position atop the race.
Alvarez is batting around .310 with 40 home runs and 99 RBIs, while also ranking among the American League leaders in the major offensive categories. He has also put together a 7.0 WAR season, according to ESPN’s statistics, further showcasing just how valuable his 2026 campaign has been.
ESPN’s in-season MLB Rank placed Alvarez No. 2 among all players in baseball, behind only Crow-Armstrong. More importantly, ESPN noted that Alvarez was producing one of the best offensive seasons of the 21st century, ranking 12th in wRC+ among all seasons since 2000 at the time of its August evaluation. Only four Barry Bonds seasons and three Judge seasons ranked ahead of him.
Yordan Alvarez has a 40-HR season 😤 pic.twitter.com/mAqx5N5mH1
— MLB (@MLB) September 18, 2026
Alvarez’s recent form has only strengthened his MVP case. He reached 40 home runs on September 17, joining an exclusive group of Astros’ hitters to reach that mark, and has continued producing at an elite level down the stretch. ESPN also highlighted his pursuit of a Triple Crown, something that has been accomplished just 12 times since 1920 and only once since 1967.
Caminero has enjoyed an outstanding breakout campaign, but Alvarez has created an enormous separation in both production and the MVP race. After returning from a 48-game 2025 season, Alvarez has stayed remarkably healthy and put together the type of historic offensive campaign that should make him the AL MVP.
Junior Caminero (+1200)
Caminero has put together a tremendous 2026 season and established himself as one of Yordan Alvarez’s biggest challengers for the AL MVP. Through 153 games as of September 19, Caminero has 162 hits, 41 home runs and 97 RBI, while posting a .277/.365/.533 slash line and a .898 OPS.
His September has been particularly notable for his power and clutch production. Caminero has hit three home runs this month, including two dramatic walk-off blasts in a five-day span against Houston and Oakland. One of those homers came against a 100.4 mph fastball, making him the first player in the AL to reach 41 home runs this season.
JUNIOR CAMINERO DOES IT AGAIN
— MLB (@MLB) September 16, 2026
RAYS WIN ON A WALK-OFF HOMER! pic.twitter.com/CYqMxffBmG
Caminero’s overall September batting numbers have cooled somewhat, however. He has gone 12-for-52 (.231) through September 19, so his recent MVP case is being driven more by timely power than a huge surge statistically. That said, the two walk-off homers and 41-homer season demonstrate just how dangerous he has been down the stretch.
That makes the +1200 price understandable, but it doesn’t necessarily make it attractive. The number implies a 7.69% probability of winning the award, and Caminero has a legitimate statistical case. However, Alvarez has created significant separation in the race, meaning Caminero would need a dramatic late push to overtake him.
Caminero deserves plenty of credit for an outstanding season, but +1200 doesn’t offer much value at this stage. His recent clutch power has kept him in the conversation, yet Alvarez’s overall production has created too large a gap for me to justify that price.
NL MVP Favorites for 2026
With the National League all but wrapped up, let’s highlight the eventual winner for NL MVP:
Pete Crow-Armstrong (OFF)
Crow-Armstrong has turned the 2026 season into a spectacular all-around campaign for the Chicago Cubs and has separated himself from the rest of the National League MVP field. Through 155 games, he is hitting .277 with 44 home runs, 105 RBI, 37 stolen bases and a .940 OPS.
The biggest number in his MVP case, however, may be his WAR. Crow-Armstrong reached 10.1 fWAR on Sept. 15, becoming one of the very few players in MLB history to reach the 10-WAR mark. More importantly, he was No. 1 in MLB, with Ohtani sitting second at 6.8 fWAR at the time.
Crow-Armstrong isn’t simply generating that value with his bat. His 44 home runs and 37 stolen bases give him an elite combination of power and speed, while his defense in center field adds another significant component to his MVP case. MLB previously noted that he led the league in WAR while also providing an MLB-best 24 Fielding Run Value (FRV) in center field.
His recent form has kept the momentum going. Crow-Armstrong exploded against Atlanta on Sept. 14 and 16, going 7-for-9 with three home runs, seven RBIs and five runs scored across the two games. He had four hits, a homer and four RBIs in the first game before launching two more home runs and driving in three runs two days later.
HR NUMBER 44! HIS 2ND OF THE NIGHT!
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) September 17, 2026
PCA wants this MVP! pic.twitter.com/7SjLuSpnF8
The batting average may not jump off the page at .277, but the overall production certainly does. Crow-Armstrong is providing elite power, speed, defense and baserunning value while playing nearly every game for a playoff-bound Cubs team.
With 10.1 fWAR, 44 home runs, 37 stolen bases and elite defensive value, Crow-Armstrong has built an MVP resume that goes far beyond traditional offensive statistics. At this stage, he has established himself as the only player to beat in the NL MVP race.
MLB 2026 MVP Predictions and Best Bets
The only thing left to do is announce the winners this year, so let’s check out our MLB MVP 2026 picks for the AL and NL:
AL MVP Predictions and Betting Pick
Alvarez is the clear choice to win the 2026 AL MVP after putting together a dominant season from start to finish. He has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball and has created a significant gap between himself and the rest of the American League field.
Junior Caminero has made a strong late push and deserves plenty of credit for his breakout campaign, but Alvarez has simply done too much to give up the top spot at this stage. His combination of power, consistency, and overall offensive production has separated him from the competition.
With the season nearly complete, I’m picking Alvarez to win the 2026 AL MVP. The biggest concern is that much of the value has already disappeared as the market has caught up to his dominant season, but if you’re looking for the player most likely to take home the award, Alvarez is the selection.
NL MVP Predictions and Betting Pick
The 2026 NL MVP race has become pretty straightforward, with “PCA” separating himself from the rest of the field. His combination of power, speed, defense and overall value has made him the clear frontrunner, and with the regular season nearly complete, he is essentially a lock to take home the award.
Crow-Armstrong has put together an incredible campaign, including 44 home runs, 37 stolen bases and a .940 OPS, while his elite defense has added even more value. His 10.1 fWAR has also put him at the top of MLB, further proving just how dominant his overall season has been.
At this point, the sportsbooks have effectively taken Crow-Armstrong off the board, which tells you everything about how the race has developed.
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