2025 MLB MVP Odds, Analysis, and Picks: AL and NL

2025 AL MVP Betting Odds

• • Aaron Judge (-18500)
  • Cal Raleigh (+2000)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. (+3000)
  • Jose Ramirez (+9000)
  • Gunnar Henderson (+10000)
  • Julio Rodriguez (+10000)
  • Wyatt Langford (+10000)
  • Spencer Torkelson (+12000)
  • Tyler Soderstrom (+12000)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+12000)

A lot has changed in the MVP markets since the season started in late March! Aaron Judge (-18500) has pulled away as a massive favorite to win the AL MVP, according to the top MLB betting sites. On April 25, Judge was a -350 favorite, and his price to win has exploded over the last month.

Judge’s implied probability to win was 77.8% at -350 odds. Now, at -18500, Theis price suggests the race is over, as the favorite is a near lock at 99.5%! Aside from Judge, Cal Raleigh (+2000) has the second-best AL MVP odds, with a 4.8% implied probability.

In other words, the race to the AL MVP award is a race of one with Judge all alone. So, is Judge obviously the clear winner? We’ll get into that in our 2025 AL MVP predictions.

2025 NL MVP Betting Odds

• • Shohei Ohtani (-400)
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong (+900)
  • Corbin Carroll (+1400)
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1400)
  • Freddie Freeman (+2500)
  • Pete Alonso (+2500)
  • Juan Soto (+2800)
  • Kyle Tucker (+3000)
  • Francisco Lindor (+4000)
  • Kyle Schwarber (+4500)

While the 2025 MLB MVP odds aren’t quite as drastic in the National League, there is still a considerable advantage for the favorite. Dodgers’ two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani (-400) is the clear leading candidate to repeat as AL MVP.

Ohtani has witnessed a sizable jump for MVP over the last month. The race was much closer in May, with Ohtani at +250 and Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1400) priced at +350. However, Tatis Jr.’s NL MVP odds have tanked, while Ohtani has stormed ahead in the MLB futures odds. Currently, Ohtani has an 80% implied probability to win the MVP award in the National League.

Behind Ohtani, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s (+900) odds have risen exponentially. The 23-year-old center fielder has been a spark plug for the Chicago Cubs. Although catching up to Ohtani is going to be difficult, Crow-Armstrong is having a fantastic campaign. His odds weren’t even on the board in April!

Aaron Judge (-18500)

Bovada lists Judge as the clear betting favorite to win MVP in the AL after playing second-fiddle to Witt Jr. briefly. The main contender received lots of hype entering this season, but Judge has made a quick stand in the Bronx!

For the roughly two decades I’ve been monitoring baseball odds, I don’t believe I have seen another player at nearly -20000 in mid-June.

Aaron Judge Triple Crown incoming?! 👑 pic.twitter.com/4WhHty6r1f

— MLB (@MLB) June 14, 2025

Judge’s two MVP wins in 2022 and 2024 were primarily due to his home run power. No. 99 passed Roger Maris to set the AL home run record in 2022. This season, Judge is doing everything and doing it at a high level.

The 33-year-old is hitting .372 with 26 home runs and 60 RBIs. Additionally, Judge has recorded a star-studded .469 OBP and 1.209. He’s either hitting a home run or getting on base in nearly half of his at-bats.

Despite the torrid start, it’s a long season, and cold droughts are hard to avoid for even the best players. But most of all, there is absolutely no value on the board at -18500. There is no use in betting on Judge with such a little return, even in a parlay.

Cal Raleigh (+2000)

The biggest surprise in the American League this season has been the emergence of Seattle Mariners’ catcher Cal Raleigh. He’s on an unprecedented pace for a catcher and deserves plenty of recognition. Unfortunately for Raleigh, he’s dealing with a monster in Judge.

CAL RALEIGH GRAND SLAM

He takes the MLB HR lead with No. 27! pic.twitter.com/C53P02Oaos

— MLB (@MLB) June 18, 2025

After Raleigh hit a grand slam on June 17, he took the home run lead away from Judge and Ohtani. The three were tied at 26 homers each prior to Raleigh’s monster blast against Walker Buehler. In addition to Raleigh’s 27 long balls, he’s hitting .264 with 54 RBIs.

He’s doing this all as a catcher, which is the most remarkable thing. Note that Raleigh is the first catcher in MLB history to reach 20 home runs before the month of May! It’s a fantastic achievement, but catching up to Judge still feels far-fetched.

While Raleigh is destroying the ball deep, Judge has been hitting for contact and getting on base at a higher clip. Raleigh deserves an award, but I don’t know if it’s going to be for MVP. That said, at +2000 odds, Raleigh might be worth taking a flyer on.

Shohei Ohtani (-400)

Shohei Ohtani lived up to the hype in his first year with the Dodgers, helping LA dominate the Yankees in the 2024 World Series. Ohtani is the +250 favorite to win his third straight MVP and the fourth of his career.

It would take a significant injury or unforeseen early-season struggles for Ohtani to be replaced as the top betting favorite in the near future. Keep in mind that he won the MVP as a DH last season and recently returned to the mound as a starting pitcher!

Ohtani became the first full-time DH to ever win the award and is even more dangerous as an MVP contender in a two-way role.

With Ohtani returning to the rotation, which was announced so suddenly recently, he’s effectively taken the huge lead to win the NL MVP. He likely could have pulled the MVP out without pitching, but this is merely icing on the cake.

In 71 games, Ohtani is hitting .299 with 25 home runs, 43 RBIs, and a 1.037 OPS. He isn’t keeping up with Judge but is still the most dependable player in the National League.

Shohei Ohtani's 2nd HR of the night was his 250th career home run! 👏 https://t.co/DF730SPjGU pic.twitter.com/hvBGrAlOhB

— MLB (@MLB) June 15, 2025

Ohtani’s return to the mound was filled with mixed results. He lasted one inning with two hits and one earned run allowed. That was simply an opportunity for Ohtani to shake the rust off, as he doesn’t have the benefit of doing it in the minors.

There would have been a closer race for MVP if Ohtani hadn’t made it back to the starting rotation. But now that he’s returned to the hill, expect Ohtani to leave the rest of the National League in the dust. Again, injuries happen, so that’s something to keep in mind.

In the absence of a major ailment, though, Japan’s superstar is on his way to winning another MVP award.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+900)

Crow-Armstrong has come out of nowhere to skyrocket up the 2025 NL MVP odds board! At only 23 years old, he is having a fantastic year in his third season in the Major Leagues.

Not only is Crow-Armstrong hitting well in the batter’s box, but he is a Gold Glove contender. Through 72 games, Crow-Armstrong is hitting .270 with 19 home runs and 58 RBIs. In May, he hit nine home runs and a .269 batting average. He’s remained hot in June, with three home runs and seven RBIs in 52 at-bats.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is a BEAST

Makes an insane catch to end and inning and then starts the next one with a NUKE pic.twitter.com/WiLqLaHJ61

— Baseball Unstitched Podcast (@BaseUnstitched) June 18, 2025

I am confident that Crow-Armstrong is going to be a household name within a couple of years. He’s already playing like one of the best players in baseball. However, in two years at 25 years old, expect Crow-Armstrong to really make his impact felt.

The Cubs should be a better team in the future as well, so you are going to hear a lot about Crow-Armstrong soon.

Still, I do not expect him to compete with Ohtani for the NL MVP in 2025. He’ll likely have a stronger chance a season from now. Remember in two years, though, as Crow-Armstrong should be a much shorter favorite and have a real chance to win his first MVP award.

1. 2025 AL MVP Sleepers

• • Cal Raleigh (+2000)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. (+3000)

Raleigh and Royals’ shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. might have the second and third-best odds to win the AL MVP, but their odds make them look like they’re well down the board!

Although the race to catch Judge appears out of reach, there is still a lot of baseball to be played. It’s only mid-June, and with Judge at -18500, it only makes sense to focus on the longshots.

Raleigh is having an incredible season and is rewriting the history books for catchers. As the current leader in home runs in the Major Leagues, you have to give him some consideration at +2000! The Mariners are in the AL West thanks to Raleigh’s red-hot bat.

Also, Witt Jr. is worth a small wager at +3000 odds. Witt Jr. started off this season incredibly slow, but he’s starting to feel good in the batter’s box again. He’s hitting .282 with eight home runs and 39 RBIs through 73 games.

The odds are stacked against Witt Jr., but for a small bet, it’s something worth considering at +3000.

2. 2025 NL MVP Sleepers

• • Corbin Carroll (+1400)
  • Pete Alonso (+2500)

Ohtani is off and running in his bid for another MVP honor. However, what if he falls off drastically or suffers a season-ending injury soon? That’s where Corbin Carroll and Pete Alonso come into play.

Like Witt Jr., Carroll didn’t thrive in the opening stretch of the regular season. It took him a couple of months to truly find his stroke. Now, Carroll is on track and playing like an MVP contender. He’s brought his batting average up to .254 and he’s pumped 20 home runs out of the park.

Carroll has connected for four runs in 41 at-bats. Last month, in May, he went yard seven times for the Diamondbacks. Along with Carroll, Alonso is a solid option at +2500. Alonso continues to mash the ball, as he’s hit 17 home runs with a .296 batting average and stellar .391 OBP.

In short, Carroll and Alonso are worth a look for your MLB MVP betting picks as long shots!