Looking for NFL underdog picks with real upset potential? Our AI underdog NFL picks use TSG algorithms to analyze matchups, team performance, betting trends, and other key data.
Each week, the model identifies the best underdog NFL picks that offer value, helping bettors find potential upsets that could deliver bigger returns at plus-money odds.
Best NFL Underdog Picks Week 1 (Snapshot)
| UNDERDOG PICK | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers to beat Rams | +183 | BetUS |
| Falcons to beat Steelers | +205 | Lucky Rebel |
| Buccaneers to beat Bengals | +172 | Bovada |
The three underdogs above are all in great positions to pull off an upset, making them excellent choices to add to your betting slips at top NFL betting sites in Week 1.
How Our Algorithm Finds the Best NFL Upset Picks Each Week
Our AI NFL upset picks this week are powered by The Sports Geek’s own algorithms. Instead of relying only on opinions or gut feelings, our system analyzes large sets of sports data and betting odds. This helps us compare NFL teams and find underdogs that may offer betting value.
The model looks at important stats such as points scored, points allowed, possession data, and other team performance numbers. Our team tests different types of data to find the factors that can be useful for predicting future results. The algorithm then uses those factors to create its projections.
Recent games can be more essential than older results. That’s why our system uses an Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). In simple terms, this gives more weight to recent performances and less weight to older games. It helps the model adjust as teams improve, struggle, or change during a season.
Our AI models are developed and maintained by software engineers and data scientists, with input from experienced sports betting experts. The goal is to use data to find potential value rather than simply picking the most popular team. Learn more about the process in our guide to how The Sports Geek’s AI picks work.
What Are Your NFL Underdog Picks This Week?
Underdog NFL picks can provide some of the best betting value on the board, but finding the right ones is never easy. That’s why we use our TSG algorithms and AI-powered predictions to help identify teams that could outperform expectations.
Now, we want to hear from you. Which NFL underdog picks do you think have the best chance to cover the spread or pull off an upset? Share your favorite underdog picks and predictions in the comments below.
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