Kentucky Derby 2025 Prop Bets: Will Taylor Swift Be at the Derby?

Kentucky Derby Winning Time: Under 122.5 Seconds (-120)

• • Over 122.5 Seconds (-120)
  • Under 122.5 Seconds (-120)

On a dry track at Churchill Downs, I was anticipating a fast pace and a quick winning time in the Kentucky Derby. Despite the weather forecast calling for rain on Friday and Saturday in Louisville, it should still be a fast 1 ¼ mile race.

Roughly 0.40 inches of rain is forecasted to fall on Friday, and then another half inch on Saturday. While it isn’t expected to be a downpour and a complete rainout all day, the track could be muddy for the Kentucky Derby.

Fortunately, Churchill Downs drains fast, and I expect it to be fine for post time at 6:57 p.m. ET. Note that there is a chance of rain throughout Saturday afternoon, with a 60% chance around noon, the highest probability of rainfall.

Severe Weather Team9 Chief Meteorologist Jeff Oechslein brings us some Kentucky Derby weather trivia: Did you know that 72 of the 150 runnings of the race have featured rain at some point prior to, or during, the “Run for the Roses?” pic.twitter.com/dnNApOz5Hr

— WTOV NEWS9 (@WTOV9) May 1, 2025

That percentage remains at roughly 50% throughout the rest of the day, so there should be enough breaks for the rain to drain. Because of the overall forecasts, we’re getting fantastic value on the under. Bettors are hesitant to back the under, but I see it as an opportunity.

122.5 seconds translates to 2:02.5 minutes. Since 2010, there have only been a few Kentucky Derby-winning horses significantly slower than that time. Super Saver won in 2:04:45, and then most recently, Justify won with a time of 2:04.20 in 2018. Over the last five years, the winning runner was clocked at 2:03.34, 2:01.57, 2:02.61, 2:01.02, and 2:00.61.

The chance of rain is affording us top value on the under, so consider under 122.5 seconds for your best Kentucky Derby 2025 props!

Starting Gate for Winner: 1-10 (-240)

• • 1-10 (-240)
  • 11-21 (+165)

The first thing that sticks out for this prop bet is that BetOnline has post positions for 11-21. Note that there are only 20 starting gates for the running of the 151st Kentucky Derby. In other words, don’t jump on 11-21 solely because the bet is offering one extra horse!

The 1-10 starting position is favored for good reason. Not only is Journalism, the betting favorite, running out of the No. 8 gate, but more winning runners have emerged from the No. 1 to No. 10 post positions.

Journalism 👀 pic.twitter.com/HfSvZmAivq

— Equibase (@Equibase) May 1, 2025

Nine horses have won from the No. 8 post position, so Journalism received a fairly strong draw. Only one post position, No. 5, has won more races in the 151-year history of the Derby.

In total, 67 horses have won from the 1-10 starting gates. Conversely, only 27 winners are from the 11-20 post positions in the Kentucky Derby! In addition to Journalism at No. 8, I’m a fan of Luxor Cafe from the No. 7 starting gate. American Promise and Burnham Square are also in the mix for a win.

At -240 odds, a 1-10 horse has a 70.6% implied probability of winning. I have that number slightly higher. With Luxor Cafe one of my top Kentucky Derby picks, and Journalism likely having a big chance, the best bet is on a winner from the 1-10 starting gate!

Either Irad or Jose Ortiz to Finish in the Top 3: No (-120)

• • Yes (-120)
  • No (-120)

The Ortiz brothers are well-known on the backside at Churchill Downs. Jose Ortin has participated in nine Derbys but is yet to win the crown jewel of the Triple Crown. Meanwhile, Irad Ortiz will be making his ninth Derby start this Saturday.

Irad has some big wins on his resume, including two Belmont Stakes. However, he is still searching for an illustrious victory in the Kentucky Derby. According to the latest Kentucky Derby odds, Jose has a decent chance of getting into the winner’s circle aboard Sandman.

Episode 4 of Jose Ortiz's Journey to the Derby leads him to Fairgrounds aboard Magnitude in the Lecomte and with a tough break in the Risen Star he's still searching for his #KyDerby mount pic.twitter.com/dmUZKJQ6Ud

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 28, 2025

However, Sandman drew the worst position in the field and is one of those horses that runs when he is interested. Tapit horses are stronger for Belmont Stakes races, but rarely have success in the Derby. There has never been a winner from the No. 17 gate and just one to place 2nd!

Additionally, only two horses have shown 3rd from the No. 17 starting gate. I’m tossing out Sandman while Irad has long odds of piloting Publisher to the wire first. For the value, Publisher is the better bet, but I like this prop of neither finishing in the top 3 the most.

Who Will Be Seen First: Travis Kelce (+350)

Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift make an appearance together at the Kentucky Derby? According to the Kentucky Derby props, they are favored to be seen on NBC’s broadcast from Race 11 to the start of the Derby.

Flying to Louisville for Derby Day is an annual pilgrimage for Kelce. He is regularly seen at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby, along with Aaron Rodgers and other NFL stars. The Kansas City Chiefs’ tight end is often seen gathering with friends or teammates for the race.

Kansas City Chiefs football star Travis Kelce in the Churchill Downs paddock at the 150th Kentucky Derby 🌹 pic.twitter.com/htMU1YMUwe

— Paul Miles (@PaulMiles840) May 4, 2024

It is often a “guy’s trip”, but with Kelce and Swift out of the spotlight since the Super Bowl, will they attend the Kentucky Derby together? The odds suggest so, but there isn’t any value at -150. Has Swift even been to the Kentucky Derby?

If she has, it hasn’t been public knowledge, and she hasn’t been on the broadcast. Meanwhile, Kelce tends to be front and center and a fixture of the celebrity scene at Churchill Downs in recent years on the first Saturday in May.

As one of the most fun Kentucky Derby exotic bets, consider Kelce to be shown first (Race 11 to start of race). If anything, Kelce and his brother, Jason Kelce, could be together rather than Swift. In short, I’m betting on Travis Kelce at +350 odds!