NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds & Predictions

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds & Predictions

The NFL Defensive Player of the Year award has been extremely competitive, and the betting odds suggest that won’t change in 2024.

Last season, Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns won the award, edging out Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt by just a few votes. But who will take home the honor for the 2024-2025 NFL season? Here are the latest odds and my predictions for next year’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year award.

NFL Defensive Player Of The Year Odds 2024-25

Here are the odds to win the 2024-2025 Defensive Player of the Year award, via BetUS:

Micah ParsonsLBDallas Cowboys+600
Myles GarrettDECleveland Browns+700
T.J. WattLBPittsburgh Steelers+700
Maxx CrosbyDELas Vegas Raiders+700
Nick BosaDESan Francisco 49ers+800
Aidan HutchinsonDEDetroit Lions+1400
Josh AllenLBJacksonville Jaguars+2200
Will Anderson Jr.DEHouston Texans+2500
Chris JonesDTKansas City Chiefs+2800
Montez SweatDEChicago Bears+4000

Over the last several years, the DPOY award has been won by the NFL’s top EDGE rusher. Stephon Gilmore was the last non-pass rusher to win the award during the 2019 season. That’s why it’s no surprise that the top 10 players in terms of odds to win the award are all pass rushers.

NFL Defensive Player Of The Year 2024-25 Betting Favorites

The favorites for this year’s DPOY award are all the usual suspects. The top four players in terms of odds have all either won the award previously, or finished second over the last three seasons. It shouldn’t be a surprise to see many of the same names listed here as the best NFL bets for this award.

Micah Parsons, Cowboys: +600

Parsons has finished second in the DPOY voting, but has yet to take home the award. Going into Year 4, Parsons is a three-time Pro Bowl selection with two All-Pro seasons and 40.5 sacks.

Micah Parsons makes a sack

While he doesn’t produce big sack totals, there aren’t many players in the NFL that are as dominant as him on a snap-to-snap basis. Parsons will likely need to bump up his sack total if he wants to take home the award, but his overall play has been so dominant that he could win it with just 15-16 sacks.

T.J. Watt, Steelers: +700

Watt nearly won his second DPOY award last season after leading the NFL in sacks with 19. It was the third time he’s led the league in sacks since 2020, and he is one of the top sack artists of this generation.

However, there has been some pushback to his game as he’s not nearly as effective or efficient as some of the other top pass rushers. His overall win rate has been significantly lower than Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett and that’s why he didn’t take home the award last season, despite the gaudy sack totals.

Nick Bosa, 49ers: +800

After winning the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2022, Bosa wasn’t nearly as effective in 2023. His sack total dropped from 18.5 to 10, and he had 13 fewer QB hits. Still, he is one of the NFL’s top pass rushers and plays on one of the very best teams in the league. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he is right back in the conversation this year for the DPOY award.

Top Defensive Player Of The Year Sleepers In 2024

It’s not too often that a player comes out of nowhere to win the Defensive Player of the Year award, but it does happen.

Even last season, Daron Bland of the Cowboys was one of the finalists for the award, despite being a Day 3 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.

However, if you are going to bet on a sleeper, be sure to take someone who could be on a great defense and has a chance to play in a bunch of primetime games in the national spotlight. Here are three sleepers for the Defensive Player of the Year award:

Haason Reddick, Jets: +4000

The Jets made a bold move this offseason to acquire Haason Reddick from the Philadelphia Eagles after losing Bryce Huff to them in free agency. Reddick is the older player, but he is the more proven pass rusher and can be an every-down player for the Jets.

Reddick has recorded at least 11 sacks in four consecutive seasons and now will be on one of the best defenses in the league. He’ll see even more one-on-one opportunities, which could lead to a big increase in his sack total.

Reddick is a good bet to lead the league in sacks, and that ultimately matters a ton to DPOY voters. And if the Jets happen to be good and make the playoffs, he’ll undoubtedly be in the conversation.

Danielle Hunter, Texans: +5000

Like the Jets, the Texans made a big splash to their pass rush this offseason, signing Danielle Hunter to a massive deal. Hunter is one of the NFL’s best pass rushers when he’s healthy and is coming off a 16.5 sack season.

Now, he’s paired with a young stud in Will Anderson Jr., who took home the Defensive Rookie of the Year honors last season. The Texans are projected to be one of the top teams in the league, and that could lead to plenty of big primetime stages for Hunter. For someone who is this good and is on a great team, Hunter is a major value at 50/1.

Roquan Smith, Ravens: +6000

You’ve probably noticed that not a single non-pass rusher has made the favorites list. While it’s very likely to go to a pass rusher again in 2024, one name that needs to be mentioned is Roquan Smith.

The Baltimore Ravens had the NFL’s top defense last season, led by Smith in the middle. However, the Ravens have lost a lot of talent on that side of the ball, including Patrick Queen, Geno Stone, and Jadeveon Clowney. It’s also worth noting that their defensive coordinator, Mike Macdonald, took the head coaching job with the Seattle Seahawks.

If Smith can keep this unit performing at a top level and the Ravens can win the AFC North again, he’ll get more consideration for the award. He’s already widely viewed as one of the top two linebackers in the NFL, and this could be the year that he finally gets some DPOY attention.

2024-25 Defensive Player Of The Year Prediction & Betting Pick

If you believe that the trend of pass rushers winning the Defensive Player of the Year award will continue, the best bet on the board is T.J. Watt. The Steelers have the NFL’s most expensive defense, and they are expected to be competitive again this season because of that unit.

Watt has proven that he can post big sack numbers year over year and that matters a lot to voters. And if the Steelers can make the playoffs again because of their defense, voters could decide to reward him with another DPOY award after narrowly missing out last season. At +700, he is the best value on the board at the best NFL betting sites.

The Bet
T.J. Watt
Sub Categories:
About the Author
Marcus Mosher profile picture
Marcus Mosher
Marcus Mosher is an NFL analyst at Pro Football Focus, residing in Erie, PA. He covers the NFL from a betting and fantasy perspective, producing written and video content. Marcus currently hosts multiple football-related podcasts and is a managing editor at USA Today's Sports Media Group, covering the Las Vegas Raiders.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *