When looking for outsiders to consider at The Open, it’s important not to compare player to player, but instead compare player to the golf course. It’s about finding the players who can score well at the venue.
Every year, a handful of bigger-priced players go well in the Open, and I’ve identified five that could significantly outplay their high prices this week. If you can identify the right course fit, there’s plenty of value to be found!
1. Kristoffer Reitan (+10000)
Kristoffer Reitan has enjoyed a brilliant couple of seasons, winning twice on the DP World Tour in 2025, before quickly making his mark on the PGA Tour. After earning his full card, he broke through and won the Truist Championship within four months, showing he has already developed into a quality operator at the highest level.
His biggest strength is his fairway to green game, which should suit the demands of Royal Birkdale. Reitan has a very repeatable swing and his iron play has been the strongest part of his game over the last couple of seasons. He seems to play everything at around 85%, which gives him excellent control and consistency with his ball striking.
If he can find the right positions off the tee, there is no reason why he can’t put together some fantastic scores this week. His Open debut last year at Royal Portrush was also hugely encouraging, finishing tied 30th in his first appearance. Reitan is a classy player who has continued to improve, and he is more than capable of surprising a few this week.
2. Ryan Fox (+15000)
Ryan Fox is a player who consistently rises to the occasion in big events, and his game looks well suited to the challenge of Royal Birkdale. His resume speaks for itself, with multiple wins on both the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour, at a wide variety of different styled golf courses.
He has won twice on the PGA Tour including the prestigious RBC Canadian Open. Then over on the DP World Tour, he’s claimed multiple titles including the Ras Al Khaimah Classic, and the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. He has also won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship across St. Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns, which is just more proof that he knows exactly how to score well on links courses.
That victory is particularly significant because it came against a strong field on some of the most iconic links venues in the UK. Ryan Fox shapes the ball consistently well, he is longer off the tee than many people realize, and he manages his way around a golf course exceptionally well. He has the qualities that should be rewarded at Royal Birkdale. At the prices available, Ryan Fox has every chance of finishing inside the top 20 this week. He could even sneak inside the top 10.
3. Haotong Li (+22500)
Haotong Li is another player available at a huge price who has the ability to significantly outperform his odds this week at Royal Birkdale. One of the most talented players on the DP World Tour, Haotong has consistently shown he can compete against elite fields, but it is his Open Championship record that really stands out.
When The Open was last held at Royal Birkdale in 2017, he produced a stunning final round of 63, the lowest score of the day to finish third. That performance made him the first Chinese player to record a top five finish at The Open and that remains one of the standout rounds in major championship history.
His success at links venues is no fluke either. At last year’s Open Championship at Royal Portrush, he again impressed with a tied fourth finish, proving he is extremely comfortable on this style of golf course. His low ball flight, control in windy conditions, and versatile iron play make him a natural fit for Birkdale.
Li can attack when opportunities arise but also has the ability to flight shots and manage difficult conditions. If he can limit mistakes, his previous Open course form suggests he is capable of massively outperforming his price. A top 10 or top 20 finish would come as no surprise.
4. Matthew Jordan (+30000)
Matthew Jordan is another big priced player I’m interested in this week at 350/1. The recent form is not the strongest, but this is the type of venue where I would not be surprised to see him produce a much better performance.
Jordan has always looked comfortable on links golf courses, and that record is a big reason why he is worth considering at this price. He has the type of game that can handle windy conditions, and his ability around the greens and with his wedges could be a real advantage at Royal Birkdale.
One thing I like about Jordan is that he is a player who can definitely shoot under par around here. He is not someone who needs everything to be perfect to score well, and if he finds the right spots off the tee, he has the control and short game to take advantage of opportunities.
He may not arrive with the best momentum, but this is a course fit in his homeland, and that gives him a chance to turn things around. If a few things fall his way, I don’t think he will be far away from the top 10 or 20. At +30000, he looks a very interesting outsider.
5. Dan Bradbury (+50000)
If you’ve seen my full Open Championship preview, you’ll know Dan Bradbury is already in my squad this week, and at +50000, he is one of the bigger-priced players I’m most interested in at Royal Birkdale.
When you compare him purely on reputation against the rest of the field, he probably won’t stand out, but matching his game to this course tells a different story. Bradbury’s tee-to-green ability is underrated, and his aggressive approach play could be a real weapon around Birkdale, where players will have opportunities to attack if they find the right positions off the tee.
He has plenty of links experience and his best performances have often come on courses where he can be positive and take on flags. That style does bring some risk, but it also gives him a higher ceiling than many players at this price point. If he drives it well, he is more than capable of putting together a strong run.
Having grown up playing links golf in England, these conditions should feel natural. Royal Birkdale suits the type of player who is confident and willing to attack, and Bradbury is a genuine outsider who could surprise a few if everything clicks. I’m quite optimistic about his chances this week.
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