The Open Championship 2026 Odds: Ginger Joe’s Best Bets

Open Championship Course Analysis: The Challenges of Royal Birkdale

The score around Royal Birkdale can vary drastically based on the conditions. Just to give you an example, Jordan Spieth won this on -12 in 2017, but the previous time Royal Birkdale hosted the Open in 2008, Padraig Harrington won with a score of +3, so conditions are very important. As I write this, the weather looks very good for the week ahead. It’s warm, the course is likely to play quite firm, and the wind doesn’t look overly heavy just yet, either. So, we could be in for some good scoring.

As an Open venue, Royal Birkdale is actually one of the fairer tests in comparison. Unlike other courses on the Open rota, Birkdale tends to reward quality golf rather than relying on the right bounces or unpredictable lies. The fairways are relatively flat and consistent, which allows players to commit to their shots and approach play with confidence. That is where this course differs from venues such as Royal St. George’s or Royal Liverpool, where uneven lies and unusual bounces can often play a much bigger factor, suiting real links specialists.

You can play slightly more attacking golf from the fairway here at Royal Birkdale, if you find the right spots off the tee.

If you don’t find the right spots, it can make the approach shots significantly harder around here, even if you are in the fairway. The bunkering is another key defense. Royal Birkdale’s bunkers are deep, but they are generally well positioned and visible, meaning players are punished for poor execution rather than unlucky mistakes. Good course management and strategic thinking are rewarded, and this is a links course that unusually rewards good ball striking more so than usual. I think you need to keep that in mind when selecting your players this week.

One notable feature of Birkdale is the caliber of its past champions. Unlike some Open venues that occasionally produce surprise winners, Royal Birkdale has, for the most part, crowned established stars like Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Tom Watson, Padraig Harrington and most recently, Jordan Spieth. So for me, you definitely want a good ball striker around this course, that is a must this week. Don’t get caught up in thinking you need a traditional links player.

1. Matt Fiztpatrick (+1600)

Matt Fitzpatrick has enjoyed a superb season, climbing to world number three, and it is thoroughly deserved, too. Last year, his game dipped slightly as he tried to add more speed and power, but in doing so he sacrificed too much of the accuracy that had always been one of his biggest strengths.

This season though, he has found the perfect balance. He has combined that extra distance with the precision that made him one of the world’s best, and the results have followed. He has already collected three PGA Tour titles this season winning the Valspar Championship, the RBC Heritage, and then teaming up with his brother Alex to win the Zurich Classic.

Outside of those victories, Fitzpatrick has been remarkably consistent. One thing that has really stood out to me is his interesting chipping grip. It has been incredibly effective, and I think he is becoming one of the best scramblers in the game. Around the greens, he looks as confident as I have ever seen him.

It’s also worth remembering that, alongside those three wins this season, he is already a major champion after winning the U.S. Open in 2022. He knows exactly what it takes to win on the biggest stage, and this certainly isn’t his first rodeo. Matt Fitzpatrick has been one of the world’s elite players for several years now, but I genuinely believe this is the best golf of his career. Everything seems to be coming together at exactly the right time, and I fully expect him to be in contention at Royal Birkdale.

2. Wyndham Clark (+2800)

My first selection this week is two-time US Open winner Wyndham Clark. I actually have a superb betting relationship with Wyndham, having tipped him for all five of his PGA Tour wins, and I’m hoping he can make it six this week.

His breakthrough came in 2023 when he won the Wells Fargo Championship before landing the US Open just a month later. He then backed that up by winning the AT&T Pebble Beach early in 2024.

Last season his game dipped, but I think there was a good reason for it. Rather than standing still, he was actually developing his game further. Wyndham has always relied on his powerful fade, but over the last year he has added a draw to his arsenal, giving him far more options on different golf courses. We’ve already seen the benefits this season. He won the Byron Nelson, played well at Muirfield, and then claimed his second US Open at Shinnecock. At all three venues, there were key long-iron shots that called for a draw on the odd occasion, and he executed them brilliantly. To me, that’s no coincidence.

He was especially impressive at Shinnecock. He got himself into position early and then showed real grit to hold off Sam Burns on Sunday, and I think Wyndham Clark is a serious competitor in pressure moments. I think his game is extremely well suited to links golf at Royal Birkdale in particular. He is one of the best ball strikers in the field, he’ll be able to attack plenty of flags, and I think he has a huge chance this week.

3. Viktor Hovland (+3500)

Viktor Hovland is the next man on my list, and his game is in excellent shape right now. He isn’t usually considered the perfect fit for links golf. But as mentioned, Royal Birkdale offers a little more opportunity to be aggressive, and that is where Viktor tends to excel. When he is able to play his natural game and attack, he can be one of the best ball strikers in the world.

He has always had that lovely soft fade, and it is a shot shape I would much rather see him rely on this week. His short game has been inconsistent at times, but Hovland is a huge momentum player. When he is confident with his tee-to-green game, the rest of his game, including the putting, tends to follow suit.

He is an eight-time PGA Tour winner, and if you go back a couple of seasons, Hovland was the player many people thought could challenge Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler at the very top of the world rankings. However, he became too focused on swing changes and technique, and his game started to go backwards. This year, though, we have seen steady progress month by month. He still hasn’t quite reached his absolute peak, yet he has still won having taken the Travelers Championship a couple of weeks ago after beating Scheffler in a playoff. That will have done wonders for his confidence.

The Scottish Open was encouraging, too. It is not a course setup that would naturally play to all of Hovland’s strengths, but he still produced a strong performance and finished tied 11th. For me, that tells you a lot about where his game is currently at. He isn’t even at his absolute best yet, but he is still winning tournaments, building momentum, and showing consistent signs of improvement. His game looks close to peaking, just in time for Royal Birkdale.

4. Tyrrell Hatton (+3500)

Tyrrell Hatton is far from the most reliable player in golf, but there is no questioning his ability when he is in full flow.

When he is in form, he generally has his driver on a string, his irons are so pure, and he hits such a small fade, that he can just attack his target without flirting with any danger. That is what’s enabled him to win at such a big variety of courses. He has won at Wentworth, St. Andrews, Valderama, Carnousite, Kingsbarns, and Bay Hill. You don’t win at all those top venues without being pretty special.

His temperament is definitely an issue and gets in the way of him achieving his full potential, but Hatton is definitely a player good enough to win a major, and the Open at Royal Birkdale could be the venue for him. His game is similar to Hovland’s, in the sense they like to take dead aim with their irons with the smallest of fades. When you look at both players in peak form, you can see why they can score so well.

So Hatton has to come into the equation for sure. Not only is he good from tee to green, but his short game is deeply underrated. Again, when he is in the mood, his putting, and chipping is absolutely dynamite, and that clicking, with his excellent long game, means he has the full package to win a major. I think he is one of the best course fits in the entire field this week, so he has to make my squad.

5. Dan Bradbury (+50000)

I don’t like to put up selections unless I think they have a genuine chance, and Dan Bradbury is one that has made my squad at a huge price of +50000!

If you were to match player vs. player, then Dan Bradbury wouldn’t rank too highly. But when you match the player to the course, you can see that he could easily post good enough numbers to make a statement around Royal Birkdale. He’ll need to bring his A-game, but that’s the same for most players, and Bradbury’s tee to green game could go unnoticed, and undervalued here.

He has a ton of links experience, and his better performances on the DP World Tour have come on courses where he can attack flags. If he drives it well this week like he usually does, then Bradbury will be very aggressive from fairway to green, you can count on that. That of course, comes with an element of risk, but it also gives him the opportunity to score well, and I think he should be half this price at least coming into the week.

Links golf in England is for specialist players, and Bradbury grew up on links courses. The fact that Royal Birkdale allows you to be a little more aggressive, for me, brings him way up the rankings too. He’s a real live outsider this week, and I’m optimistic about his chances at this price. We always find a few home players go well in the Open at big prices. I’m banking on it being Dan Bradbury.