The Open 2026 Sleepers: Best Dark Horses and Longshot Bets

Joaquin Niemann (+5500)

At +5500, Joaquin Niemann is a high-upside longshot that possesses a skill set that can mitigate the brutal elements of Royal Birkdale.

Niemann has been in stellar form, highlighted by his recent T7 finish at the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills. His performance was a masterclass in resilience. Despite a costly opening-round penalty that led to a quad-bogey, he stormed back with rounds of 65 and 66 to contend on Sunday.

The 27-year-old also had a strong effort at the PGA Championship to finish T18, and recent success on the European Tour. Niemann notched a T7 performance at the BMW International Open and third in the Italian Open.

Statistically, Niemann’s biggest asset for an Open Championship is his distinct, low-flying ball flight. He generates immense ball speed but holds a flat trajectory, which allows him to pierce through heavy coastal winds without losing control of his distances. Additionally, he ranks third in birdies and fifth in eagles in LIV Golf this season.

190mph and 350 yards from Joaquin Niemann 😳#ItalianOpen pic.twitter.com/RuD7pPiQtI

— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) June 28, 2026

If the weather and wind don’t cooperate, Niemann should still be in fine shape. While his historical track record at the Open is admittedly weak, failing to crack the top 50 in his previous appearances, his current confidence and elite tee-to-green metrics are completely detached from past data.

So, at +5500, Niemann is one of the best Open Championship sleeper picks.

Aaron Rai (+6000)

The Englishman has quietly established himself as one of the most precise drivers and iron players in professional golf. Playing on home soil with a game tailor-made for a high-stress course, his DNA matches perfectly with past Open grinders.

Aaron Rai ranks second on the PGA Tour with a driving accuracy of 72.43%. That is going to serve Rai well on a course where a sharp opening drive is imperative. He has the tools to make this tournament easier on himself than most are capable of doing at Royal Birkdale.

AARON RAI BECOMES THE FIRST PLAYER FROM ENGLAND TO WIN THE PGA CHAMPIONSHIP IN 107 YEARS 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

What a way to win his first major 👏 pic.twitter.com/yykD1GqbUw

— ESPN (@espn) May 17, 2026

Additionally, Rai ranks a solid 21st in SG: Tee-to-Green and 31st in SG: Total. He looks fully capable of putting himself in a position to thrive in a tough tournament.

He famously captured the 2020 Scottish Open title at The Renaissance Club under brutal weather conditions, proving he can flight his ball through heavy wind and navigate slow, true coastal greens.

Recent confidence is also something to consider on Rai’s upset potential. Just months removed from his breakthrough major triumph at the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink, Rai has proven he possesses the mental strength on golf’s grandest stages. His steady subsequent form, including a T-11 finish at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, underscores that his major-winning form is entirely sustainable.

At +6000, this is one of the best steals on the board to win the Open Championship!

Alex Fitzpatrick (+7000)

At +7000, Alex Fitzpatrick represents an absolute steal for a longshot flyer at The Open Championship. Long known simply as Matt Fitzpatrick’s younger brother, Alex has completely broken out of that shadow in 2026, putting together a tear that proves his game is ready for a major breakthrough.

After capturing his first DP World Tour victory at the Hero Indian Open in March, Fitzpatrick came stateside and won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans alongside Matt to secure his full PGA Tour card.

Far from satisfied, he has spent the summer hunting leaderboards in the sport’s most elite fields. In his last few starts alone, he notched a solo 4th at the Truist Championship, a T6 at the Memorial, and a sizzling T7 at the Travelers Championship.

Alex Fitzpatrick, that is genius! ✨ pic.twitter.com/L58a1bd5nJ

— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) June 15, 2026

Over his last five measured starts, he has been a ball-striking machine, averaging an elite 0.775 Strokes Gained: Approach and 0.523 SG: Off-the-Tee. That high-end precision from tee to green is precisely what is required to navigate this course.

Furthermore, he has already proven his major focus this summer. He was firmly in the mix at Shinnecock Hills for the U.S. Open, ultimately finishing T-23 after entering the final round in the top 15. Growing up playing the exposed, windy layouts of Yorkshire, England, links golf is one of his specialties.

For a player ranked 17th in the FedExCup and playing the best golf of his life, 70-to-1 is massive value for one of the best British Open sleepers.

Corey Conners (+7500)

Corey Conners is an ideal ball-striking target whose elite precision could offer immense value at the Open Championship. Heading into Royal Birkdale next week, the Canadian is quietly assembling a stellar summer, with a red-hot T7 at the Travelers Championship just weeks ago and a rock-solid T23 at the brutal U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills.

Royal Birkdale demands exactly the skill set Conners brings. The course is a classic, flat but narrow layout framed by towering sand dunes and penal fescue, where survival hinges on relentless execution off the tee and into the greens.

Conners currently ranks 9th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy (hitting nearly 69% of his fairways) and 24th in SG: Approach. By consistently steering clear of the pot bunkers and deep rough that define links golf, he gives himself a chance here.

The persistent question mark for the two-time PGA Tour winner is his putter. Yet the slower, naturally truer coastal greens typical of Open Championship venues often narrow the gap between elite putters and below-average ones, turning things into more of a ball-striking contest.

Out in 30 ‼️

Corey Conners holes out for eagle on the 9th and takes the lead @THEPLAYERS.

📺 PGA TOUR LIVE on ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/nPhCIb3ijZ

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 13, 2026

If Conners can simply putt to field average, his tee-to-green dominance should generate plenty of scoring chances.

Given his potential on this golf course, a 75-to-1 number looks mispriced. With his game clearly peaking at just the right time in the 2026 season, Conners stands out as a phenomenal longshot to lift the Claret Jug.