Nitto ATP Finals 2025 Betting Preview: Predictions, Favorites, Best Bets

2025 ATP Finals Format and Key Info

The Nitto ATP Finals are scheduled for November 9, 2025, to November 16, 2025, in Turin, Italy. The season-ending event is the final tournament of the ATP Tour calendar this year. It will be hosted on a hard court at Inalpi Arena.

The top eight players in the men’s singles ATP Tour rankings are qualified to participate in the tournament. Novak Djokovic withdrew due to a shoulder injury, so No. 9 in the rankings, Lorenzo Musetti, will be his substitution.

The eight players are split into two groups: the Jimmy Connors and Bjorn Borg Group. Find the draw for each group below.

Jimmy Connors Group

• Carlos Alcaraz (1)
• Lorenzo Musetti (9)
• Taylor Fritz (5)
• Alex de Minaur (7)

Bjorn Borg Group

• Jannik Sinner (2)
• Alexander Zverev (3)
• Ben Shelton (6)
• Felix Auger Aliassime (8)

The winners of the Jimmy Connors and Bjorn Borg Group will meet for the ATP Tour title on November 16.

Jannik Sinner (-150)

The 24-year-old Italian had a breakout campaign last year and rocketed to the top of the ATP rankings. He was a machine with a win at the Australian Open, three Masters 1000 events, the US Open, and then finished off the year with a win in the ATP Finals.

In 2025, Sinner started the year off in similar fashion with a 6-3, 7-6, 6-3 win over Zverev in the Australian Open final. Only three weeks later, Sinner was suspended for three months due to a failed drug test. Despite the ban, Sinner proceeded to win Wimbledon in July over Alcaraz, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.

This was a month after Alcaraz handled Sinner on the clay court in the French Open. Alcaraz took the final major of the year, though, as he ousted Sinner in four sets. More recently, Sinner rolled over the field in the Paris Masters to win the final Masters 1000 tournament of the season. He didn’t drop a set en route to a 6-4, 7-6 victory over Felix Auger-Aliassame in the finals.

Merci Paris 🇫🇷🏆 What an amazing week, unforgettable moments ❤️ Thank you for all the support! pic.twitter.com/uw82eWqrzp

— Jannik Sinner (@janniksin) November 2, 2025

With the title, Sinner was able to take over the No. 1 spot on the ATP Tour. Note that Sinner has won three of the last four events he’s entered to regain the top ranking. That being said, the Italian didn’t meet Alcaraz in any of them.

In any event, Sinner is in his element when he’s on a hard surface. Alcaraz’s rival sports an overall record of 34-3 and 83-13 in sets in hard court matches in 2025. In particular, he has dominated indoor hard courts. Currently, Sinner is on a 26-match winning streak indoors!

Sinner, in my opinion, has the tougher draw on paper in the Bjorn Borg Group against Zverev, but he recently defeated the Russian without breaking a sweat at the Paris Masters, 6-0, 6-1. With the home crowd behind him, Sinner is a major threat to win his second consecutive ATP Finals crown.

Carlos Alcaraz (+125)

Alcaraz fans are hoping that his performance at the Paris Masters was a fluke and he was simply looking ahead. In a stunning upset, Alcaraz suffered a Round of 32 loss to Cameron Norrie, 6-4, 3-6, 4-6. Expect to find Alcaraz in much better form in the ATP Finals, but it isn’t a good look heading into the last tournament.

He had some bright moments in 2025, including a win in the US Open over Sinner, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 in Flushing Meadows. Since then, Alcaraz has entered three events, with a championship at the Japan Open on September 30. That was easy work for Alcaraz, as he made it look easy over Taylor Fritz, 6-4, 6-4.

ALCARAZ BEATS SINNER TO WIN THE US OPEN 🏆

Carlos Alcaraz joins Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Mats Wilander as the only men all-time to win multiple major titles on each surface 👏 pic.twitter.com/CXVGBWyBNm

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 7, 2025

Alcaraz isn’t as masterful on hard courts as he is on the clay. In 2025, the 22-year-old from Spain has lost just one clay match in 23 encounters. Conversely, Alcaraz holds a record of 33-5 on hard courts, which is still awfully impressive, but he’s been far from automatic.

Additionally, Alcaraz hasn’t been at his best indoors. He’s only 31-14 (68.8%) on a hard court with a roof, which includes the loss versus Norrie. It isn’t Alcaraz’s best work, and he must deal with Sinner who thrives in this environment.

Nonetheless, Alcaraz receives the easier draw on the Jimmy Connors side. I don’t see any roadblock preventing him from reaching the finals in Turin. Alcaraz’s ATP Finals 2025 odds look about right at this price!

Alex de Minaur (+2200)

The only longshot pick for the ATP Finals worth considering in the eight-player tournament is on Australia’s Alex de Minaur. The 26-year-old has reached at least the quarterfinal in five of his previous six events.

That includes the semifinals at the Vienna Open and China Open. Both matches ended in a loss to Sinner. De Minaur gave Sinner a solid fight in China to force three sets in a 3-6, 6-4, 2-6 final.

With a 66-38 (63.5%) record and five titles on an indoor court, de Minaur feels comfortable in this setting. Additionally, he is 5-1 in indoor matches in 2025. It isn’t going to scare Sinner away, but de Minaur is one of the best players on an indoor hard court in the ATP Finals.

Given the strong value on de Minaur’s ATP Finals odds, he is worth a flier to win in Italy.