Thursday Night Football Week 9 Preview: Jaguars vs. Ravens Predictions & Best Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds

The Jacksonville Jaguars (-556) are favored to beat the Baltimore Ravens (+380), with Jacksonville laying 9.5 points in this matchup. The Jaguars’ -556 moneyline implies an 84.8% chance of winning outright.

Jacksonville enters the matchup as a heavy favorite, with oddsmakers expecting the Jaguars to handle a Baltimore team looking to pull off an upset. The 9.5-point spread suggests Jacksonville is expected to win comfortably, although the Ravens should have opportunities to keep things competitive if they can capitalize on their scoring chances.

It should be noted that Jacksonville opened as an 8-point favorite, but Baltimore’s injury woes at quarterback have made the Jaguars a bigger favorite.

With the total set at 39 points, oddsmakers are anticipating a relatively low-scoring contest. Can Jacksonville cover the spread, or will Baltimore do enough to make this a closer game than expected?

• The Jacksonville Jaguars are 10-4-0 (ATS) against the spread in their previous 14 games as a betting favorite.
• The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-1-0 (ATS) against the spread in their previous four games as a betting favorite on the road.
• The Jacksonville Jaguars are 10-7-0 (ATS) against the spread in their previous 17 games.
• The Baltimore Ravens are 8-17-0 (ATS) against the spread in their previous 25 games overall.
• The Baltimore Ravens are 2-10-0 (ATS) in their previous 12 games at home.
• The Baltimore Ravens are 0-3-0 (ATS) in their previous three games as a home underdog.
• The OVER is 15-10-0 in the Baltimore Ravens’ previous 15 games overall.

Total Points: Baltimore Ravens Under 16.5 (-165)

• • Over 16.5 (+125)
  • Under 16.5 (-165)

I like Baltimore to stay under 16.5 team points, with the uncertainty surrounding Fagnano. Jacksonville has allowed just 15.9 points per game through seven contests, ranking second in the NFL.

The Jaguars have also recorded nine interceptions, the third-most in the league, and own a plus-seven turnover differential. This is an aggressive defense that can take advantage of inexperienced quarterbacks.

Fagnano is facing a massive step up in competition if he gets the start. The rookie completed just 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception against Buffalo. He was also sacked three times and lost a fumble. Those numbers highlight just how difficult it could be for Baltimore to sustain drives without Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley.

Jacksonville should also prioritize shutting down Henry and forcing Baltimore into obvious passing situations. Henry remains a dangerous runner, but the Jaguars have the defensive personnel to crowd the line of scrimmage and make life difficult on the ground.

If they successfully limit Henry, Fagnano will have to beat them through the air, something I’m not expecting from an inexperienced quarterback making his first NFL start.

The Jaguars have the secondary to capitalize, too, with nine interceptions already this season. I expect them to disguise coverages, pressure Fagnano, and force Baltimore into difficult third-down situations.

Even if the Ravens find some success early, sustaining drives against this defense will be a challenge. So, the Ravens Under 16.5 points has top value for one of the best TNF prop bets today.

Winning Margin: Jaguars by 13 to 18 Points (+370)

The Jaguars should manage to open this game up in the second half. I’m not confident in Fagnano finding success in this matchup. For that to happen, the Ravens would have to run the ball effectively with Henry.

Against most teams, that might sound feasible, but the Jaguars have been aggressive in the box this season. They will focus on stopping the run and daring Fagnano to beat them through the air. The Jaguars are vulnerable in the secondary, but the Ravens’ passing game is unlikely to exploit the holes.

The Ravens have scored just 17.5 points per game without Jackson in the lineup this season. The Jaguars have scored 28 points per game and have been one of the most underrated offenses in the league with Lawrence directing the show.

At +370 odds, the Jaguars to win by a margin of 13 to 18 points seems realistic, so consider this prop bet on Thursday Night Football.

Anytime Touchdown: Derrick Henry (BAL) (+135)

Despite Baltimore’s quarterback problems, I still like Ravens’ RB Derrick Henry to find the end zone at +135. The Ravens will likely lean heavily on their veteran running back rather than put the game entirely in the hands of Fagnano.

Henry has rushed for 632 yards and eight touchdowns on 158 carries through eight games, averaging four yards per attempt. He has also added 75 receiving yards and a touchdown, giving him nine total scores this season.

Henry remains the centerpiece of Baltimore’s offense, particularly around the goal line. He has already recorded eight rushing touchdowns, including three in the season opener against Indianapolis and two against Dallas.

With Jackson and Huntley dealing with injuries, I expect Baltimore to simplify its offensive approach and give Henry plenty of opportunities to carry the football.

King Henry and the Ravens cash in on the takeaway

BALvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/pqXrix1ceK

— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2026

The Ravens should look to establish Henry early, use him to control the clock, and lean on his physical running style throughout the game. More importantly, I expect them to feed him near the goal line rather than risk putting Fagnano in difficult passing situations.

At +135, I’m happy to back Henry to score. Even if Baltimore struggles to move the football consistently, he should receive enough carries and red-zone opportunities to find the end zone.

Touchdown Passes: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Over 1.5 (-145)

• • Over 1.5 (-145)
  • Under 1.5 (+110)

Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns is one of my favorite player props for Thursday night. The Jaguars’ quarterback is having an excellent season, passing for 1,690 yards and 17 touchdowns against just four interceptions through seven games.

He has also thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of his seven appearances, including three in Sunday’s 42-7 win over Indianapolis. Lawrence is on fire with a total of nine touchdown passes over his last three starts.

The Ravens’ secondary hasn’t been elite by any means this season. Heading into Week 9, they’ve conceded 228.3 passing yards per game, 21st in the NFL. Look for Lawrence to attack early through the air and try to put the Ravens away quickly.

Trevor Lawrence's throws are often resulting in tuddies pic.twitter.com/jhumgiNXC0

— PFF (@PFF) November 2, 2026

Expect another two or three-touchdown performance for Lawrence, so Over 1.5 touchdowns is one of the best Thursday Night Football player prop bets this week.

Total Receiving Yards: Brenton Strange (JAX) Over 34.5 (-117)

• • Over 34.5 (-117)
  • Under 34.5 (-113)

Jaguars’ tight end Strange has emerged as a viable weapon in the passing game. He’s been one of Lawrence’s favorite targets, as Strange continues to find room in the secondary.

46 yards AND a stiff arm from Brenton Strange 💪

INDvsJAX on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/KkpCGQLR0X

— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2026

The 25-year-old from Penn State has caught 28 passes in seven games for 334 yards and a score. Note that Strange has hauled in at least 44 yards in four consecutive matchups.

Also, note that Strange has had at least five receptions during this stretch, indicating that Lawrence is giving him plenty of opportunities to do damage. At this low number at 34.5 yards, Strange stands out as one of the best bets to go Over in Week 9.