CFP Championship 2026-27 Betting Preview: Predictions, Odds, & Best Bets

Indiana Hoosiers – More Cignetti Magic?

• • Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
  • 2025-26 Record: 16-0 (CFP Champs)
  • National Titles: 1
  • Key Players: Josh Hoover (QB), Nick Marsh (WR), Khobie Martin (RB), Tyrique Tucker (DL), Rolijah Hardy (LB)

The Indiana Hoosiers overcame massive +10000 pre-season odds to capture the national title this past season. Per their +10000 price, it was the largest upset since the 2001 season. After going into last season without any attention, other programs have their bullseye on the Hoosiers this season.

Indiana enters this season from a very different position: instead of sneaking up on opponents, the Hoosiers are now the hunted. The element of surprise is gone, and so is Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, the projected No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Stepping into his place is former TCU QB Josh Hoover.

In many ways, this is an ideal setup for head coach Curt Cignetti. He moves from a Heisman-winning star to a proven, productive signal-caller.

Hoover is coming off a strong year in which he threw for 3,472 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while completing 65.9% of his passes. He appears to be a natural fit in Cignetti’s new-look Indiana offense, even as the unit turns over key personnel.

Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover on what he's seen from receivers Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh: pic.twitter.com/Kf4Yh9ddef

— Michael Niziolek (@michaelniziolek) April 24, 2026

The passing game will look very different. Leading receivers Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. are off to the NFL, leaving a void on the outside.

Cignetti is counting on former Michigan State wideout Nick Marsh to emerge as the new No. 1 option, and Marsh’s third collegiate season sets up well for a breakout. The Hoosiers also get slot receiver Charlie Becker back, which should provide some stability. Hoover connected with both of them on 6-of-13 passing for 94 yards in the spring game.

Indiana was short-handed this spring, with several key starters sitting the game out. Hoover was operating behind an offensive line that is far from a finished product on the field for the Hoosiers.

The backfield faces just as much change. Indiana has moved on from 1,000-yard rushers Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, stripping away a significant chunk of last year’s offensive production. There is optimism around RB Khobie Martin’s ability to contribute right away, but the ground game still comes with legitimate questions.

Defensively, Indiana should remain a problem in the trenches. With defensive lineman Tyrique Tucker and linebacker Rolijah Hardy returning, the Hoosiers once again project as one of the tougher front sevens to run against. Last season they ranked third in the FBS, allowing just 79.7 rushing yards per game, and they have the pieces to be stout in the box again.

The secondary, however, is more unsettled. Standout CB D’Angelo Ponds and S Louis Moore are both headed to the pros, leaving holes in the back end. The arrival of transfer corner A.J. Harris should help soften the blow, but there is still work to do to get the defensive backfield up to standard.

In total, Indiana must replace six of eleven starters. Cignetti’s track record suggests he’ll get this roster aligned quickly, and Hoover’s presence at quarterback gives the offense a relatively smooth transition.

Still, the sheer amount of turnover makes it hard to fully trust this team at a short price. Backing Indiana as a +700 favorite feels expensive, and the value at that number is questionable.

Ohio State Buckeyes – Sayin’s Season?

• • Head Coach: Ryan Day
  • 2025-26 Record: 12-2 (CFP Loss Quarterfinals)
  • National Titles: 9
  • Key Players: Julian Sayin (QB), Jeremiah Smith (WR), Chris Henry Jr. (WR), Bo Jackson (RB), Kenyatta Jackson Jr. (DE)

After a tough ending to their 2025-26 campaign, Ryan Day’s Ohio State Buckeyes will once again lean on a high-powered offense to carry them back to the promised land. They exited in disappointing fashion with a 24-14 loss to the Miami Hurricanes in the quarterfinals, and there are clear question marks on this roster.

The one area that inspires real confidence is their explosive offense. With QB Julian Sayin entering his second season as the starter, the Buckeyes should have no trouble lighting up the scoreboard. Sayin quietly put together a highly productive campaign last year and finished as a Heisman finalist.

He threw for 3,610 yards, 32 touchdowns, and eight interceptions while completing 77% of his passes. Efficient and poised, Sayin spread the ball around with ease, and he’ll have no shortage of weapons again this season. Even with Carnell Tate off to the NFL, Ohio State is still loaded at the skill positions.

Sayin was up-and-down in the spring game, passing for 8-of-15 passing and an interception. He ran for a score and 10 yards on two carries to showcase his mobility.

Five star freshman QB Tavien St. Clair turned some heads with his performance, with 166 yards and a passing touchdown. Right, now there isn’t a quarterback battle, but it could get interesting early in the season if Sayin struggles.

This Tavien St. Clair-Chris Henry Jr. connection is funnnnnn 😀 pic.twitter.com/l7RE9Ag0gD

— Eleven Warriors (@11W) April 18, 2026

At wide receiver, Jeremiah Smith is a dark-horse Heisman candidate, while electric freshman Chris Henry Jr. is expected to contribute right away. Henry arrives as the No. 1 wide receiver recruit in the country and is projected to develop into a more complete player than his late father.

He was the most impressive player in the spring game for the Buckeyes. Henry finished with four receptions, 96 touchdowns, and a touchdown to make a big impression in his introduction to Buckeyes fans in Columbus. He and Smith will cause huge issues for defenses this season.

In the backfield, the return of RB Bo Jackson is just as important, giving the Buckeyes balance and another dynamic threat.

The other side of the ball is where things get complicated. Ohio State’s defense will be extremely young, and several new faces must emerge quickly. They’re transitioning from an elite 2025-26 unit to one with multiple holes to fill.

It’s a major overhaul: DE Arvell Reese and LB Sonny Styles are now in the NFL, and the secondary has been hit hard by the departures of S Caleb Downs and CB Davison Igbinosun.

CB Jermaine Matthews’ decision to return was crucial, but the Buckeyes still need DE Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and Eddrick Houston to hit their ceilings off the edge. Even if those pieces develop as hoped, growing pains feel inevitable.

With so much youth on defense, Ohio State is likely to find itself in plenty of shootouts throughout the 2026-27 season. This isn’t the same elite defensive unit as last season, which is concerning for Day and the Buckeyes. It’s also a tough schedule, with several high-profile matchups on the docket.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish – The Most Motivated Team?

• • Head Coach: Marcus Freeman
  • 2025-26 Record: 10-2 (Didn’t Qualify CFP)
  • National Titles: 13
  • Key Players: CJ Carr (QB), Jordan Faison (WR), Adlon Shuler (S), Leonard Moore (CB), Christian Gray (CB)

With 72% of their production returning, Notre Dame leads the nation in this key category. This is an experienced group with plenty of motivation after being left out of the College Football Playoff. Head coach Marcus Freeman and his staff felt their 2025-26 resume was strong enough to earn a bid, but the committee thought otherwise.

Now, Notre Dame brings back a roster on both sides of the ball that’s fully capable of running the table and removing any doubt in 2026-27.

QB CJ Carr looks ready to make the next leap after throwing for 2,741 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just six interceptions on 66.6% completions as a freshman. He also showed some mobility with three scores on the ground.

THE IRISH TIE IT UP WITH THREE MINUTES TO GO 😳

Watch the finish of Notre Dame-Miami on ABC and the ESPN App: https://t.co/Nz7AG4DFyf pic.twitter.com/bGocxXqDz4

— ESPN (@espn) September 1, 2025

Carr isn’t drawing much early Heisman buzz, but he has the upside to play his way into the conversation. His connection with wideout Jordan Faison could drive a big year for the Irish offense.

That’s despite the loss of elite running back Jeremiyah Love, a potential top-5 NFL Draft pick. Thanks to a deep, talented offensive line, Notre Dame should still be able to open lanes for RB Jadarian Price, the next man up in the backfield.

With RB Jadarian Price the final pick of the first round in the 2026 NFL Draft, Aneyas Williams is expected to be the next big runner in South Bend. After averaging 9.3 yards per carry on 24 attempts in 2025, he should fit in nicely in a starting role.

The real headline, though, might be this stacked Notre Dame defense. The Irish boast one of the deepest, most talented secondaries in the country, with multiple starters and key contributors returning for 2026–27. S Adlon Shuler is back, and he’ll be joined again by CBs Leonard Moore and Christian Gray.

If Freeman’s squad puts it all together, Notre Dame has the ceiling to be the most dangerous team in the nation. We’ve seen Irish teams in the past fall short of lofty expectations, but there’s real reason for confidence with this group.

Texas Longhorns – Arch Lives Up to Expectations?

• • Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian
  • 2025-26 Record: 10-3 (Didn’t Qualify CFP)
  • National Titles: 4
  • Key Players: Arch Manning (QB), Trevor Goosby (OT), Derrek Cooper (RB), Colin Simmons (DE), Graceson Littleton (DB)

No other program in the nation will start the season with more pressure than QB Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns. They have the talent and pedigree, but we’ve heard this story before.

Much like the Dallas Cowboys in Texas, the Longhorns have heard this recurring story too often. Manning was expected to breakout into a Heisman Trophy contender last season. However, it didn’t come to fruition and Manning had to answer several questions.

Manning the magician 🪄 pic.twitter.com/Fv0Lhiko3U

— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) December 31, 2025

After a 10-3 season, the Longhorns were left out of the postseason discussion, and now Manning enters this season with sky-high expectations. He passed for 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in a solid year, though nothing elite.

Peyton Manning’s nephew is coming off foot surgery but looks sharp and at 100% in practice. Instead of a traditional matchup for their spring game, they held an open practice, with Manning in sharp shape in 7-on-7 drills. Several starters are currently injured, so coaches played it largely safe.

Fortunately, Manning will have lynchpin LT Trevor Goosby back to protect him on the offensive line. He’s going to need more help from the backfield, though. The backfield left Manning out to do it himself. 5-star freshman Derrek Cooper is being counted on to provide a huge lift.

The defense should once again be in good shape, as they return around 70% of their production. That includes 12-sack pass rusher Colin Simmons and game-changer DB Graceson Littleton in the secondary.

Despite the talent, I don’t know if Steve Sarkisian is the coach to get the most out of them, however. They should falter somewhere along the line, and the seat will get significantly warm for Sarkisian in Austin. It’s hard to trust the Longhorns for my college football championship picks at +700.