English Premier League Predictions Today: EPL Best Bets for October 26

The Aston Villa vs. Man City clash should be one of the most entertaining games on Sunday. The key factor here is the home field advantage. You have to go back to 2021 to find a Manchester City win at Villa Park. They’ve lost the last two here, and drawn the one just before that.

In short, Villa are unbeaten at home against City under Unay Emery, facing much stronger Pep Guardiola sides in the past few years. In general, they play well against the big boys with the home crown behind them, so I’m happy to back them to get something from this game.

I’m tempted to go for a win, but Erling Haaland’s recent form and City having an extra day of rest after the Europe games in midweek work against that. Instead, I prefer the safer approach and go for Villa to +0.5 goals available at +110.

There are two main reasons I prefer backing Wolverhampton in this critical game against Burnley. The first one is that Wolves have been the unluckiest team in the league so far, according to the advanced metrics.

They sit last in the league on only two points, but every expected metric suggest that’s fluke. For a start, the team has conceded 17 goals somehow from only 11 xGA. In fact, that second number would put Wolves in the top half of the table, clearly showing that the team is decent defensively.

Unfortunately, opponents have been very efficient against Wolves, scoring way more than they should based on the chances created. The goals conceded should regress to the mean eventually, and I expect this to happen in the near future.

The game against Burnley is an excellent opportunity to grab their first victory. The visitors heavily rely on home advantage, like most newly-promoted teams. They’ve lost every single game away from home, so I don’t trust them against Wolves.

Getting almost even odds for Wolverhampton is one of the best EPL betting picks today, so I’m happy to back the hosts here.