UFC 323 Odds and Predictions – Will Dvalishvili Remain Dominant?

• Merab Dvalishvili (-435)
• Petr Yan (+335)

Dvalishvili (21-4) has been absolutely dominant in the bantamweight division, winning his last 14 fights! One of those was against Yan (19-5), who lost to “The Machine” by unanimous decision in March 2023.

The match was dominated by Dvalishvili’s wrestling as he took down Yan 11 times out of 49 attempts, which was the most attempts in a UFC fight ever. The Georgian-American also outstruck Yan 202-87, including 147-75 in significant strikes. Yan has rattled off three wins in a row since the loss, but has he improved his takedown defense?

It doesn’t seem to matter against Dvalishvili, who has the most takedowns in UFC history with 117. He is relentless in his pursuit of takedowns, and if the first attempt gets stuff, Dvalishvili is coming right back with another try. Eventually, he’s going to get you down, and it’s exhausting to get back up.

Yan is still an excellent fighter, but I can’t see his takedown defense improving enough to take the belt for a second time. Combined with his wrestling and unlimited gas tank, I’m putting Merab Dvalishvili in my UFC 323 predictions, although at -435, I won’t bet the moneyline. I would wait until you can find round odds, method of victory, or other props.

• Alexandre Pantoja (-235)
• Joshua Van (+190)

Pantoja (30-5) has won eight straight fights, and beat Kai Kara-France and Kai Asakura by submission in his last two matches. “The Cannibal” aims to use his terrific submission game, although he does have knockout power.

Van (15-2) has won five consecutive matches, and beat Brandon Royval in his last match in June 2025. Pantoja has beaten Royval twice, including one submission win, while Van defeated Royval by unanimous decision. “The Fearless” is an outstanding striker, and has an 81% rate in takedown defense.

That skill will be tested by Pantoja, who uses his striking to get close to his opponent and aim for a clinch or takedown. Van would do well to keep Pantoja at distance, but that is easier said than done. Both men like to fight at a frantic pace, which I believe suits Pantoja better, as he can scramble and try to take Van’s back.

I would lean towards Alexandre Pantoja in my UFC 323 predictions at -235, and I would also wait for method of victory props, as the champ could win it by submission.

• Jan Blachowicz (-136)
• Bogdan Guskov (+115)

This is an intriguing matchup from the light heavyweight division between former champion Blachowicz (29-11-1) and Guskov (18-3). A win could put Blachowicz back in the picture for a title shot despite recent struggles, while Guskov might get there also with a spectacular performance.

Bogdan Guskov starches Nikita Krylov with a brutal first-round KO! 💥 #UFCAbuDhabi #MMA pic.twitter.com/z4xIQcSy2G

— KOMPCT (@KOMPCT) July 26, 2025

Blachowicz is 1-3-1 in his last five fights, although one was a split draw with Magomed Ankalaev, and one was a split-decision loss to current champion Alex Pereira. He likes to slow the action down, using his 78-inch reach to keep opponents at distance, and mix in his wrestling.

Guskov is extremely explosive, with 13 first-round finishes. If Blachowicz wants to win this, he has to drag the fight out. Guskov has gone the distance just once in his 18 fights, and he lost to Arkadiy Lisin way back in August 2016.

In my UFC 323 predictions, I’m taking the underdog, Bogdan Guskov, at considerable value of +115! I think his power will overwhelm the veteran Blachowicz, and Guskov has plenty of one-punch strength. A massive win could vault the Uzbekistani fighter up the rankings at 205 pounds!