UFC 324 Odds and Predictions – Can Pimblett Take Down Gaethje?

• Justin Gaethje (+190)
• Paddy Pimblett (-230)

Pimblett (23-3) has yet to lose in the UFC, posting a 7-0 record in the organization. “The Baddy” has won “Performance of the Night” five times, including in a third-round TKO of Michael Chandler in April 2025. Pimblett is known as a wrestler and grappler, but has shown improvement in his striking.

The Liverpool-born Pimblett has also said he wants to stand and trade punches with Gaethje (26-5), but I don’t know if that’s the move. Gaethje, a former interim champion at 155 pounds, is one of the most dangerous strikers in UFC history. “The Highlight” has reined in his brawling instincts recently, but he made his name as one of the top all-action fighters in the promotion.

Gaethje was also an All-American wrestler, but he doesn’t use it that often. It’ll be interesting if he tries to incorporate wrestling, but Gaethje was taken down twice in a win over Rafael Fiziev. Pimblett is a better grappler than Fiziev, and if he’s smart, he’ll use that weapon to smother the threatening Gaethje.

I’m backing Pimblett at -230 in my UFC 324 betting predictions, but I’m also looking at submission props when they’re released later this week. Gaethje has one-shot punching power, but I think Pimblett will avoid that, and Gaethje could retire after one last run at a UFC belt.

• Sean O’Malley (-200)
• Yadong Song (+169)

This matchup sets up much better for O’Malley (18-3, 1 NC), who was mauled in back-to-back losses to Merab Dvalishvili. The Georgian-American took O’Malley’s title by taking him down at will in the first match, and then he submitted “Suga” in the second fight.

Yadong (22-8-1, 1 NC) defeated Henry Cejudo in his last fight, stuffing all three of Cejudo’s takedown attempts. But “The Kung-Fu Kid” will stand with O’Malley, and keep pushing forward. This plays right into O’Malley’s hands, as the Montana native is a devastating counter-puncher.

The biggest concern I have is whether O’Malley can recover, mentally, from the two beatings he took from Dvalishvili. It would also add a layer of intrigue if Yadong tries to take O’Malley to the mat.

If O’Malley keeps this standing, I think he wins handily, so I’m taking him at -200 in my UFC 324 betting picks. I’ll also keep an eye on the fight-result props, as I think a knockout could be in order for “Suga”.

• Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-335)
• Derrick Lewis (+270)

This heavyweight tilt will be a banger as Cortes-Acosta (16-2) and Lewis (29-12, 1 NC) aren’t here to waste time. The two men have a combined 32 knockouts between them (Lewis with 24, Cortes-Acosta with eight).

Lewis is only here to stand and bang, but there is something at stake for Cortes-Acosta, who sits fifth in the UFC heavyweight rankings. Cortes-Acosta is fighting to stay within shouting distance of a title shot, while Lewis has said in the past that he isn’t concerned about the title, only money. “The Black Beast” did change his tune in 2025, saying that he does want another title push.

But at 40 years old and with a lot of punishment taken, I don’t know if Lewis can do it, although he might possess the most power in the UFC. I’ll give him a puncher’s chance, but I’m leaning towards Waldo Cortes-Acosta for my UFC 324 betting picks.

But a better return lies in the total-rounds props, and I’m grabbing UNDER 1.5 rounds at +110. A first-round knockout for Cortes-Acosta wouldn’t shock me in the slightest!