The betting odds for the second leg of the Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid semifinal suggest that the English team is more likely to progress. That makes sense after the Gunners took a decent draw in Spain last week, but the tie is far from over!
Let’s explore the latest lines and odds and analyze both sides, before I share my Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid prediction and betting pick.
Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid Odds and Betting Lines (Second Leg)
- Arsenal to Win: -155
- Atletico Madrid to Win: +435
- Draw: +285
- Over 2.5 Goals: -110
- Under 2.5 Goals: -110
- Arsenal to Advance: -315
- Atletico Madrid to Advance: +230
The top soccer betting sites expect Arsenal to progress from this one, with the odds for the Gunners to reach the final set at -315. This equals an implied probability of almost 76%, which is slightly surprising to me. Sure, a draw in the first leg favors the Gunners, but that’s probably a step too far.
I will explain why in the next few sections. In the meantime, you can find the betting odds above, and a lot more, at Lucky Rebel.
Arsenal – Did the Fulham Game Flatter to Deceive?
Arsenal are coming into this match after one of the few convincing wins since the start of the calendar year. Bukayo Saka and Viktor Gyokeres ran the show in a 3-0 win Fulham, with the game essentially over at halftime.
The Gunners looked dangerous up front and moved the ball well, especially before the internal. They created plenty of chances and could’ve scored more, but is this a reason to expect a major change by the end of the season?
This team has struggled to play quickly and deliver goals for a while now, so I don’t think the issues are magically solved. More likely, Arsenal benefited from facing a Fulham team that was hit by a virus before the game.
The Cottagers missed several key players, and it’s completely plausible that some of the ones who featured were also affected.
Overall, this Arsenal win reminds of the road victory against Spurs earlier this year. Back then, Arsenal played great and won with ease, but this has remained a one-off until now. The team consistently struggles to unlock teams that defend well in numbers, so I expect problems against Atleti.
What concerns me more is that Arteta’s desire to control the ball often leads to problems in Arsenal’s own half. Even against Fulham, there were self-inflicted moments of pressure in the Gunners half. The likes of Griezmann and Alvarez will be ready to pounce of that happens on Tuesday.
The game could very well be decided by a single mistake, so I wouldn’t back Arsenal at these odds. Yes, the Gunners are favored to progress, but they can be vulnerable at the back and inefficient up front, so I wouldn’t bet on them to progress at -315 or win in regular time at -155.
Atletico Madrid – Full Focus on the Champions League
Atletico Madrid had the luxury to rest all starters in La Liga this weekend, as the team is focused almost entirely on the Champions League at this point of the season. This is a huge advantage over an Arsenal side that is in a tight battle for the English Premier League crown.
As a result, Atleti should be fresh and prepared for this game. The team had a decent opening leg, even if the result wasn’t perfect. After struggling in the opening half, Diego Simeone’s side improved significantly and probably should’ve won.
Griezmann hit the bar and Lookman missed a glorious chance at 1-1, so Atletico was closer to the victory than Arsenal. That should give them confidence going into the second round.
I expect a solid mid-block that transitions into high press at every good opportunity. Given Arsenal’s desire to keep the ball almost at all costs, Simeone knows that forcing an error around the opposition’s box is Atleti’s best chance to score.
The head coach has the right players for such a game plan, but the big question is whether his defense can hold. There were some tough moments in the first game. and it will be even harder away from home and against a potentially fully fit Bukayo Saka.
Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid Predictions and Best Bets
If I had to pick a team to progress, I’d pick Arsenal. If I had to bet on a team to progress at the current odds, it would be Atletico Madrid. This match could certainly go either way, and I feel the bookies either got the winner odds just right or made them slightly too favorable for Arsenal.
I don’t see enough value to back either team, so I prefer to look at different betting markets. It should be a mostly cagey affair, but a single goal could be enough to completely change the dynamics. That’s why the full-time totals market is risky as well.
Instead, I prefer to go for the first half totals. You can get -103 for under 1 goal at the interval, which is quite good. Both sides should approach this one patiently early on, prioritizing a clean sheet in the first half over taking risks.
We could very well see a goalless first half, and this market offers some protection in case there’s a single goal, making it my top betting pick for Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid.
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