NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 23: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Wendell Carter Jr. +725 (Timberwolves vs. Magic)

Wendell Carter Jr. is an excellent value pick to score the first basket against the Minnesota Timberwolves at +725 odds. Orlando has been one of the NBA’s strongest teams at the opening tip, winning approximately 72% of its jump balls in 2025-26. Carter won 58 of his 81 opening-tip opportunities, giving the Magic a strong chance to secure the first possession and strike early.

Carter’s first-basket production makes this wager particularly appealing. He finished among the NBA’s top 10 first-basket scorers in 2025-26, recording 14 first baskets and a 17% success rate across 84 starts. That track record makes him a proven option in this market, especially with Orlando’s advantage at center court.

Wendell Carter Jr PNR dunk, assisted by Franz Wagner pic.twitter.com/AcrGpxDBVh

— The Magic Way (@MagicFilmRoom) October 22, 2026

Carter is also coming off a strong season offensively, averaging 11.0 points and 7.0 rebounds per game while shooting 52.1% from the field. His ability to finish around the rim makes him a natural target if Orlando opens with an interior play.

With Carter’s proven first-basket production and Orlando’s advantage on the opening tip, +725 offers excellent value. We’re backing the Magic center to capitalize on the early possession and put the first points on the board.

Victor Wembanyama +310 (Rockets vs. Spurs)

Victor Wembanyama is one of our best NBA first basket bets today at +310 odds against the Houston Rockets. The Spurs have won more than 80% of their opening-tip opportunities with Wembanyama starting, giving them an excellent chance to secure the first possession.

At 7-foot-4, his extraordinary reach and size make him a major advantage at center court, setting San Antonio up to strike first. Wembanyama’s scoring ability makes this wager even more appealing.

OH MAMA, WEMBANYAMA‼️

📺 @DAZN pic.twitter.com/9gz75fAIn9

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) October 17, 2026

He averaged 25 points per game in 2025-26, establishing himself as San Antonio’s leading scorer. His combination of interior dominance, explosive finishing, and perimeter shooting makes him exceptionally difficult to defend.

Wembanyama struggled in San Antonio’s season opener against Oklahoma City, but we’re backing him to respond with an aggressive start against Houston. His scoring ability and dominance at the opening tip give him an excellent opportunity to get the Spurs on the board.

At +310, Wembanyama is our pick to score the first basket.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.