NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 26: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Cameron Boozer +750 (Grizzlies vs. Jazz)

Cameron Boozer is a high-value first-basket pick against the Utah Jazz at +750 odds to score the first points. With Zach Edey providing size at center court, Memphis has a strong chance to secure the opening tip and control the first possession.

The Grizzlies have won both opening tips to start the 2026-27 season, creating an appealing opportunity to back one of their emerging offensive weapons to score first.

Boozer has made an immediate impact in his NBA career, averaging 16 points per game while taking 14 field-goal attempts per contest through his first three games.

Cameron Boozer this season:

16 PTS | 11 REB | 4 AST
25 PTS | 13 REB | 6 AST
7 PTS | 11 REB | 5 AST

On pace to be the first rookie since Oscar to average 10/10/5. pic.twitter.com/UwjfPCV0my

— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 26, 2026

His willingness to attack the basket and take on a significant scoring role makes him an intriguing first-basket candidate. He’s already shown he can deliver offensively, including a 25-point performance against Golden State.

Boozer’s versatility gives him multiple ways to open the scoring. He can finish around the rim, exploit mismatches in the paint, or capitalize on an offensive rebound for second-chance points. With Memphis potentially controlling the opening possession, he should have an opportunity to make an immediate impact.

At +750, we’re backing Boozer’s aggressive scoring mentality and promising start to his rookie campaign for one of the best NBA first scorer bets tonight.

Giannis Antetokounmpo +450 (Mavericks vs. Heat)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a top first basket prop bet against the Dallas Mavericks at +450 odds. The Miami Heat have been one of the NBA’s strongest teams at the opening tip with Bam Adebayo at center, giving them a promising opportunity to secure the first possession.

Giannis is in his BAG 😤

He's got 21 PTS in the first half of his Heat debut! pic.twitter.com/yLc4WqnASY

— NBA (@NBA) October 22, 2026

Giannis is off to a strong start with his new team, averaging 28.3 points per game while shooting 57.1% from the field through his first three appearances in 2026-27. He’s also averaging 18.7 field-goal attempts per game, demonstrating his aggressive approach and willingness to attack the basket.

His combination of size, strength, and explosive finishing makes him an ideal first-basket candidate. Giannis can overpower defenders in the paint, finish in transition, and draw contact when attacking the rim.

With Miami looking to establish its new superstar early, he should be a focal point of the opening possession. At +450, we’re backing Giannis to take advantage of Miami’s potential opening-tip advantage and get the Heat on the scoreboard first.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.