This week on the DP World Tour, we have one of the standout events of the entire calendar, with the BMW PGA Championship taking place at Wentworth. There are plenty of contenders for the win, but what are the most valuable bets to win?
I provide a 3-man squad based on my BMW PGA Championship predictions, but before we go there, let’s talk about the course.
BMW PGA Championship Course Analysis
The course is steeped in history, and across the 7,267-yard par 72, we can expect plenty of drama throughout the week, but also some seriously classy golf. This is an event I always enjoy dissecting, particularly because it’s a course I’ve played many times before, so there’s loads to get stuck into.
We’ll start with the overall picture of the course, because when you break it down, it’s one that really suits good ball strikers, and over four days, the best ball strikers generally do tend to fill the top end of the leaderboard.
What is important to mention though, is that while the majority of those players are real quality ball strikers. Also, we’ve seen consistent all-round players win here who don’t necessarily have those standout attributes.
Alex Noren winning for a second time last year, and Billy Horschel doing the same the year before, shows that other types of players can win here too, providing they put everything together from tee to green.
There are a lot of long, demanding par 4s around this course, and while distance is certainly welcomed, good positioning off the tee and consistent iron play can prove just as deadly, as the recent results have shown.
When we break down the ideal attributes for this course, I want consistency off the tee, consistent iron players, particularly from 150 to 200 yards, and someone who is comfortable around the greens. Getting up and down to save pars is going to be a big part of the week given the difficulty of some of the approaches.
The greens are big enough though, for the more conservative players, and that may help explain why both Noren and Horschel have managed to win here twice. You don’t need to bomb it around Wentworth, you just need to be rock solid from tee to green and be able to chip well when you do miss.
It’s also important to note that, although there are a bunch of long par 4s, the final two holes are both par 5s. So, the scoring, and the tournament itself, is never really over until it’s over. There are genuine scoring opportunities available at the end of each round for those brave enough to take on the greens in two.
At the top end of the market this week, we’ve got an obviously strong field, with the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Joaquin Niemann and Tommy Fleetwood, just to name a few, all lined up for the week.
However, I don’t see any obvious value in the first 10 to 20 players in the market. I do think Rory is the one to beat this week, as he is most weeks. In particular, I think this course should suit him really well. I just don’t really like the price in a field of this size! So, I’ve taken a chance with a three-man squad at bigger odds, and I think we’ve got three players who can go really well for us this week.
We’ve had a few frustrating weeks on the trot, but I am confident we can get ourselves a nice result this week, because I think we’re in for a seriously entertaining BMW PGA Championship. Gamble responsibly as always, and don’t forget to sign up free here at The Sports Geek.
1. Alex Fitzpatrick (+3500)
My top two selections for this week are both fancied by me to the same degree, and the first of those is Alex Fitzpatrick at 35/1. He’s a player who has taken his game to another level this season, and I think a win at Wentworth would be the perfect next step in the journey he’s been on.
I highlighted last week that Alex Fitzpatrick’s win in the Hero Indian Open was one of the best performances of the season in my calculations, and he then went on to win the Zurich Classic when teaming up with his brother, Major Champion Matt Fitzpatrick.
His brother is obviously world class, sitting inside the top five in the world rankings, but I think this is the time for Alex Fitzpatrick now. He’s won the Indian Open, gained his PGA Tour card through that doubles victory, and now a win at Wentworth in a signature event is very much within his sights.
He’s long enough off the tee without being a bomber, and the areas of his game that have impressed me most actually come from fairway to green. His iron play has been fantastic, and we’ve seen that time and time again this season.
However, he also has a very good short game, so missed greens shouldn’t be a huge issue for him. He’s a good chipper, solid with the putter, and comes into this in good form, having finished tied seventh at the Irish Open last week.
It feels like the timing is right for Alex Fitzpatrick, and I can already see his name on that trophy!
2. Ryan Fox (+6000)
There was no way I was going to leave Ryan Fox out of the squad this week at Wentworth. It’s no surprise to see him as a former winner of this tournament either, because his game, from ball flight to shot shape to overall course style, couldn’t be better suited.
Ryan Fox is a player I’ve always noted as someone who tends to perform in the big events, and he’s done so across a wide range of different golf courses. More recently, he added one of golf’s great trophies to his CV by winning the Claret Jug in this year’s Open Championship. He was exceptional, and it was a title he fully deserved after putting in a faultless display of golf at Royal Birkdale. It was a win that his career fully deserved.
His game attributes are something I’ve highlighted many times before. He’s a superb ball striker, sneaky long, has loads of control for a big hitter, and is very reliable on and around the greens. It’s easy to overlook Ryan Fox when you look down the field list, but underestimating him is dangerous, and I think he’s going to give this a really good go this week.
His fade shot shape suits this course perfectly from start to finish, and with his all-round game and big-event pedigree, I think he’s got a very good chance of putting himself right in the mix.
3. Thriston Lawrence (+12500)
Then finally, we are siding with Thriston Lawrence. He bounced back to form out of nowhere two weeks ago to win the European Masters in Switzerland, before missing the cut at the Irish Open just gone. I don’t mind that missed cut though, because links golf isn’t somewhere I’d be looking to back Thriston Lawrence anyway.
What is evident, though, is that when he finds courses he likes, he can repeat these good performances. Now, he has been beaten in a playoff here and has also blown a lead once, but I do think his game is likely to set up well at this course once again. I think Alex Fitzpatrick and Ryan Fox are the two standouts this week, but at the prices, Thriston is definitely worth considering.
He has played a lot of courses this year that suit faders and things haven’t always gone to plan, but I still think he is better suited to this type of course because everything moves naturally towards his preferred shot shape, much like Ryan Fox. Even though I wouldn’t say I’m hugely confident of a big result based on the majority of his form this season, this place gives him definite opportunities to score well.
He isn’t a standout selection, but at the prices, he’s very appealing, especially when we know this six-time DP World Tour winner knows how to win. He’s a good addition to the squad at the prices.
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