2025-26 EPL Title Odds and Prediction: Arsenal to Finally Win?

I picked Arsenal to win the Premier League before the season start and felt very confident in my prediction in December. I strongly believe this is the best squad in the league this year, in terms of both quality and depth.

However, the Gunners have been very inconsistent since the start of the calendar year. They have become the masters of winning ugly, which is essential if you want to win the title, but they rarely dominate teams. In fact, most of their games are close, regardless of the opposition. This is not sustainable in the long run, but with only eight games left, it should be enough.

Arsenal’s gritty defense and the ability to score from set pieces make them custom-built for this year’s title race. No one is dominating, so the team most capable of grinding results will win at the end.

Up to this point, the Gunners have been that team. They often deliver ugly wins that are painful to watch even for their fans, but getting the job done is the only thing that matters in the spring.

As a result of their consistent ability to get wins without playing particularly well, Arsenal now have a 7-point lead over Manchester City. Even if the Gunners lose at the Etihad and City win their game in hand, Arsenal will still have a point more.

Furthermore, the team’s schedule by the end of the year is relatively light. They have tough games against City and West Ham away, as well as a tricky matchup against Newcastle at home, but their other matches are against beatable teams.

I don’t expect from Arsenal to be perfect by the end of the season, but they should get the job done. That’s why I find the -500 odds fair.

I didn’t expect Manchester City to be fighting for the title at the start of the season, but I don’t think my prediction was way off. All big teams have struggled this year, and City brought two of the best players in the Premier League in January.

They would’ve been 10+ points behind Arsenal without Guehi and Semenyo. These two have kept the title race alive, but I don’t think they will be enough to win it for Manchester City.

The team is struggling to find the right balance and has a similar issue as Arsenal (albeit for different reasons): every game seems close. Their last two matches, versus Leeds United and Nottingham Forest, perfectly encapsulate Manchester City’s problems.

The team looked good in patches but was vulnerable for long periods. The two sides fighting against relegation had many chances to find the net. Leeds failed to capitalize and City won, but the Forest made them pay.

The team is allowing too much space at the back and simply can’t control games like in the past. I don’t trust City to win all of their remaining games, which is likely what they’ll need for the title.