French Police Probe Polymarket Bets on Exact Ballon d’Or Top Five

French police have opened an insider trading investigation into Polymarket bets on the 2026 men’s Ballon d’Or. There were 12 accounts that correctly predicted the exact order of October’s top five, led by winner Harry Kane.

Those accounts reportedly staked about €250,000 ($280,495 USD) and cleared almost €200,000 ($224,396 USD), which raises a hard question for bettors about award markets: who knew the result first?

What Police Are Investigating in the Ballon d’Or Bets

According to The Athletic, there was a probe on November 4, citing French law enforcement sources who spoke anonymously. Those sources said the suspicious wagers came from 12 accounts on Polymarket, a prediction market. On these platforms, users trade contracts that pay out if a specific outcome happens.

Insider trading, in a betting context, means placing wagers using information the wider market doesn’t have. Here, that would mean knowing the vote result before the ceremony. One source said that the trading patterns, and how the bettors managed their positions, raised that suspicion.

That detail matters. One lucky ticket on the right order is possible. Police are looking at how a dozen accounts traded, which goes beyond whether they picked correctly.

How Much the 12 Polymarket Accounts Won

French outlet Upside first reported the figures, which The Athletic later verified. The 12 accounts staked about €250,000 ($280,495 USD) combined. Their net profit came to almost €200,000 ($224,396 USD).

By our math, that works out to roughly €0.80 ($0.90 USD) in profit for every euro wagered. That return is notable for a market where nailing five finishing spots in order should be difficult. Pricing on the exact order would normally reflect that uncertainty.

These markets price uncertainty about a vote. That pricing breaks down if a small group knows the result in advance.

The Exact Ballon d’Or Top Five the Bettors Called

Various publications all reported the same final order. Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane took the award.

Award bets like this sit alongside other soccer futures, which are wagers on outcomes settled weeks or months later. The difference is that a vote result exists on paper before it’s announced. A match result doesn’t.

France Football Says Ballon d’Or Integrity Comes First

France Football organises the Ballon d’Or. The magazine was reportedly warned about betting irregularities before the winner was confirmed.

After the announcement, France Football launched its own investigation. It also contacted the SCCJ (Service central des courses et jeux, or Central Racing and Gaming Service), the French police unit responsible for gambling.

“The integrity of the Ballon d’Or is an absolute priority for France Football,” a spokesperson said, per Inside World Football. The organiser repeated that the winner is chosen by independent vote. It also said it takes allegations of leaked results and potentially fraudulent betting very seriously.

An Early Website Post Named Kane Before the Ceremony

The ceremony took place at the London Palladium. Hours before it began, the Ballon d’Or website published an article naming Kane as the winner, according to Inside World Football.

Similar articles for other nominees also went up. Organisers said those pieces were “inadvertently published.”

Police and organisers haven’t shared further details while the investigation continues. That leaves open whether the early posts have any connection to the 12 accounts. We’ll treat that as unresolved until investigators say more.

Why the Ballon d’Or Insider Trading Case Matters for Bettors

Prediction markets were already under scrutiny in soccer before this story broke. We covered FIFA’s clash with the Group of Copenhagen over World Cup betting alerts, which included a Polymarket market. The Ballon d’Or probe adds a police investigation to that debate.

The regulatory fight is also live in the US. Several states argue sports event contracts are gambling and should fall under state betting regulatory laws.

For regular bettors, any market settled by a pre-decided vote carries a risk that someone already knows the answer. When that happens, everyone else is betting against an unfair edge. Expect more details once French police finish their work.