With the grid set for “The Greatest Spectacle in Racing,” oddsmakers have updated their 2026 Indy 500 odds. Defending champion Alex Palou sits as a clear favorite for Chip Ganassi Racing, but is he really on track to kiss the bricks again?
In this betting preview, I’ll walk through the latest winner odds, break down the main favorites and live longshots, and finish with my best bets and Indy 500 predictions.
2026 Indy 500 Winner Odds
The following betting odds to win the Indy 500 are courtesy of Lucky Rebel:
| DRIVER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Alex Palou | +275 |
| Pato O’Ward | +700 |
| David Malukas | +900 |
| Alexander Rossi | +1000 |
| Josef Newgarden | +1000 |
| Conor Daly | +1200 |
| Scott McLaughlin | +1200 |
| Felix Rosenqvist | +1400 |
| Santino Ferruci | +1600 |
| Scott Dixon | +2000 |
Four-time IndyCar Series champion Alex Palou (+275) is the clear betting favorite at top online sportsbooks. His +275 price translates to a 26.7% implied probability that he stands atop the podium at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the second straight year.
Behind Palou, the odds drop significantly. McLaren’s Pato O’Ward (+700) is next, with a 12.5% implied chance to claim his first Indy 500 victory after runner-up finishes in both 2022 and 2024. David Malukas (+900) currently gives Team Penske its best shot at the Borg-Warner Trophy.
Malukas is coming off a career-best second-place finish in the 2025 Indy 500 and has shown he’s comfortable on the 2.5-mile rectangular oval. Even so, his 10% implied probability still leaves a sizable gap between him and the favorite, Palou, heading into the 2026 Indy 500.
You can find up-to-date odds to win the Indy 500 at Lucky Rebel by navigating to All Sports (A-Z) > Motorsports > Indy 500.
Indy 500 Favorites in 2026
Before diving into my best Indy 500 betting picks, let’s evaluate the leading favorites to capture the most prestigious crown in IndyCar racing:
Álex Palou (+275)
-
- Team: Chip Ganassi Racing
- Engine: Honda
- Race Engineer: Julian Robertson
- 2026 Standings: 1st
- Indy 500 Qualifying Speed: 232.348 MPH (1st)
After winning as a +600 favorite last year, Palou is back seeking his maiden Indy 500 title in 2025. Oddsmakers have shortened Palou’s Indy 500 odds considerably from last year’s race.
He went faster in qualifying than in 2025 and was rewarded with pole position for the race on Sunday afternoon. Last year, Palou recorded an average qualifying speed of 231.378 mph. He beat that by roughly a second for pole this past weekend.
It’s an incredible accomplishment, as Palou has only become more dominant. The 29-year-old Spaniard won the IndyCar Series title in 2021, 2023, 2024, and 2025. The scary part for the rest of the grid is that Palou has only gotten stronger over these years.
10/10‼️
Absolute elation for Alex Palou and the No. 10 team as they win the pole for the 110th Running of the Indianapolis 500! pic.twitter.com/jyeFahOI8L
— INDYCAR on FOX (@IndyCarOnFOX) May 17, 2026
In particular, Palou’s performance in ovals has taken a sizable leap forward. Early in his career, he wasn’t thrilled about racing on ovals, though he was still dominant on road courses. Now, Palou has added to his arsenal with fantastic pace on ovals as well.
Alex Palou 2026 Results:
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- 2026 Grand Prix of Indianapolis (Road Course) – 5th place
- 2026 Grand Prix of Long Beach – 1st place
- 2026 Grand Prix of Alabama – 1st place
- 2026 Grand Prix of Arlington – 2nd place
- 2026 Grand Prix of Phoenix – 24th place
- 2026 Grand Prix of St. Petersburg – 1st Place
Palou has been a force once again this season. With these results, which include three wins, it’s no surprise that he leads the IndyCar Series standings. Palou is up on his foes at the top of the table with 237 points.
He’s finished at least P5 in five of the first six races and has also led a series-high 209 laps. It’s not even close: Malukas is a distant second to Palou with 100 laps led in 2026.
Certainly, Palou has to be considered for your 2025 Indy 500 predictions.
Pato O’Ward (+700)
-
- Team: Arrow McLaren
- Engine: Chevrolet
- Race Engineer: Will Anderson
- 2026 Standings: 7th
- Indy 500 Qualifying Speed: 230.442 MPH (6th)
O’Ward has been one of the most consistent drivers in the IndyCar Series since his debut in 2018. It’s always tough to count him out in any race or conditions. That said, this year’s Indy 500 qualifying wasn’t his best.
Pato O’Ward was not happy with his run in Top-12 qualifying. pic.twitter.com/lhE8rZwptR
— INDYCAR on FOX (@IndyCarOnFOX) May 17, 2026
In 2025, O’Ward earned a career-best P3 in qualifying, for his third top-5 starting spot since 2021. For the 110th running at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, though, he’ll roll off from P7 on the grid.
Qualifying pace aside, O’Ward’s talent on ovals always makes him a threat. If he can extract the maximum from his car on Sunday, writing him off would be a mistake. To do that, he’ll need to find his best form of the season.
It hasn’t been an ideal start to the year, and he has ground to make up if he wants to reel in Palou in the IndyCar Series standings. Despite his trademark consistency, O’Ward is still chasing his first series championship.
Pato O’Ward 2026 Results:
-
- 2026 Grand Prix of Indianapolis (Road Course) – 18th place
- 2026 Grand Prix of Long Beach – 5th place
- 2026 Grand Prix of Alabama – 17th place
- 2026 Grand Prix of Arlington – 5th place
- 2026 Grand Prix of Phoenix – 4th place
- 2026 Grand Prix of St. Petersburg – 5th Place
O’Ward has been largely reliable this season, recording five top-5 finishes in seven starts. That said, he still hasn’t won or even secured a podium for McLaren in 2026.
Although he’s in decent form, more is expected from O’Ward, and that could change this weekend. Overall, he sits seventh in the 2026 IndyCar standings and has led just 10 laps through six races, which is surprisingly low by his standards.
I expect him to be firmly in the mix late in the race, but I’m not overly confident that O’Ward is one of the best Indy 500 bets. He should probably have the third and fourth-best odds to win.
David Malukas (+900)
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- Team: Penske
- Engine: Chevrolet
- Race Engineer: James Schnabel
- 2026 Standings: 3rd
- Indy 500 Qualifying Speed: 231.877 MPH (3rd)
Outside of Palou, Malukas might have the best chance to win the Indy 500. In my view, he should have the second-shortest odds to take home the Borg-Warner Trophy.
The 24-year-old Chicago native delivered his best Indy 500 performance last year, finishing about nine car lengths behind Palou in the 2025 race. It was a strong effort, but on that Sunday, no one was going to stop Palou.
Malukas is one of the best oval racers on the grid and backed that up with a strong qualifying run. He’ll roll off from P3 after an impressive performance last weekend, clocking an average speed of 231.877 mph, with the best qualifying result of his Indy 500 career.
The best Indianapolis 500 start of his career, and our 50th front row start. @malukasdavid will start 3rd. pic.twitter.com/z9rCRN7nCA
— Team Penske (@Team_Penske) May 17, 2026
He’s also been one of the most consistent drivers across all tracks this season. Malukas hasn’t broken through for a win yet, but he keeps stacking solid results.
Davis Malukas 2026 Results:
-
- 2026 Grand Prix of Indianapolis (Road Course) – 2nd place
- 2026 Grand Prix of Long Beach – 7th place
- 2026 Grand Prix of Alabama – 4th place
- 2026 Grand Prix of Arlington – 6th place
- 2026 Grand Prix of Phoenix – 3rd place
- 2026 Grand Prix of St. Petersburg – 13th Place
Malukas has finished in the top 10 in five consecutive races heading into the Indy 500. After finishing 13th in the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg to open the season, Malukas has ripped off three top 5 performances and top 10 in every start.
You have to like what you see from Malukas, who has found plenty of pace in 2026. He’s in favorable form and can’t be disregarded as a potential winner for Team Penske. Malukas’ Indy 500 winner odds offer a bit of value at +900.
Nevertheless, a lightning quick Palou is on the grid and budding with confidence as he continues his dynasty in the IndyCar Series. If Palou has a mishap, Malukas might be the one to capitalize, though.
Top Longshots for the Indianapolis in 2026
Anything can happen at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, so it’s imperative to include a couple of longshots for your 2026 Indy 500 picks. Find my top recommendations below:
2026 Indy 500 Prediction and Betting Pick
The Palou train should keep rolling at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Barring an accident or reliability issue, he looks poised to stay the course. He’s become a master around this track and hasn’t taken his foot off the gas since last year’s win.
Palou had a rocket ship in qualifying and clearly the most consistent car in the field. Expect him to grab an early lead and gradually extend it over the 200-lap grind. Strategy isn’t a concern either, as Chip Ganassi Racing has been locked in with Palou at the controls.
I projected him closer to a +200 to +175 favorite, so even as the clear frontrunner, there’s still value in his current price. In short, he is the best Indy 500 betting pick on the board.
Where to Bet on the Indy 500?
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