Key Takeaways
- The NBA named Kalshi and Polymarket its “preferred prediction markets” in multi-year deals. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- The league also signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on oversight and integrity.
- The NBA will have the right to approve which markets are offered on its games.
- Prediction markets reach essentially all 50 states, while more than a dozen states are fighting them in court.
The NBA announced multi-year deals on October 26, making Kalshi and Polymarket its preferred prediction markets. The league also signed an MOU (memorandum of understanding) with the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), the federal regulator that claims exclusive jurisdiction over these markets.
For NBA prediction market traders, the biggest change is control. The league can now approve which markets appear on its games.
What Kalshi and Polymarket Get as NBA Partners
Prediction markets are exchanges where users buy and sell contracts tied to event outcomes, such as who wins a game. Contract prices move as traders react, similar to odds at a sportsbook.
Under the new deals, according to The Associated Press, both exchanges get a package of branding, data, and marketing rights:
| Benefit | What It Includes |
|---|---|
| Official title | The right to call themselves “Preferred Prediction Market Exchange of the NBA” |
| League IP | Use of NBA intellectual property, such as logos |
| Official data | NBA stats from league partner Sportradar to operate and settle authorized markets |
| Marketing | Other marketing activations with the league |
The data piece matters most for traders. Contracts on NBA games will settle on official league stats, which gives everyone the same source for how a market resolves.
How NBA Approval Rights Limit Prediction Market Options
Market approval is the league’s biggest lever. Scott Kaufman-Ross is the NBA’s head of media distribution and partnerships. He said the league “will have the right to approve the types of markets that are available on our games.”
Kaufman-Ross called that “a very important component for us.” The deals are expected to carry restraints similar to those the NBA recently placed on sportsbooks.
Earlier in October, the league told sportsbooks to pull certain bets, including the first stat of a game, the opening tip, and Unders on players expected to play only a few minutes.
If those limits carry over, traders shouldn’t expect Kalshi or Polymarket to list similar NBA contracts.
The Integrity Rules Behind the CFTC Agreement
The NBA said the MOU “reflects a shared commitment to ensuring that NBA-related prediction markets are subject to appropriate regulatory oversight and integrity protections.”
The integrity protections include limits on which markets can be offered, transparency on suspicious user patterns, a ban on league and team personnel trading on league events, and information-sharing obligations tied to investigations and suspicious trading.
These guardrails aren’t new for the NBA. The league has used similar rules with its sportsbook partners for some time, and that system has flagged irregular betting patterns.
What Changes for NBA Sportsbook Bettors
The NBA is also expanding agreements with its current official sportsbook partners, such as DraftKings, to cover their prediction-market offerings. That brings those products under league agreements, too.
Reach explains why the league is moving now. Not every state has regulated sports betting, but prediction markets are available at some level in essentially all 50 states.
Kaufman-Ross summed up the league’s view on betting, trading, and fantasy around its games: “it’s better for it to be regulated than unregulated.”
Where the NBA Stands in the State-Federal Fight
The deals land in the middle of a legal battle. The CFTC claims exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, and some states disagree.
More than a dozen states are in litigation over prediction markets. We’ve covered New York’s regulatory win against Kalshi and the CFTC’s lawsuit against New Mexico, both rooted in the same question.
Earlier this month, the NFL asked the Supreme Court to rule on how prediction markets should be regulated. By signing with the CFTC, the NBA has tied its integrity framework to the federal regulator while that question stays open.
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