NFL Conference Championship 2025-26 Preview: AFC and NFC Predictions

AFC Championship Winner Odds

The Buffalo Bills (+300) lead all teams in the preseason to win the AFC Championship. At +300, the Bills have a 25% implied probability to win their first conference title since 1994!

Nevertheless, the 2025-26 AFC Championship odds indicate that it should be a tight battle between the Bills, the Baltimore Ravens (+325), and the Kansas City Chiefs (+400). The Ravens hold a 23.5% chance, which puts them right next to the Bills.

Public confidence isn’t as high on the Chiefs this season, as they have the third-best odds to win the AFC Championship with a 20% implied chance.

NFC Championship Winner Odds

The Philadelphia Eagles (+325) are favored to head back to the Super Bowl as champions of the NFC. The defending Super Bowl winners have a 23.5% probability of winning the NFC Championship, according to the latest odds.

The Detroit Lions (+500) have a tough schedule in 2025-26, but Dan Campbell’s squad remains highly regarded at Bovada. Currently, the Lions have 16.7% implied odds to bounce back after an early exit in the playoffs a year ago.

Following the Eagles and Lions, the odds to win the NFC Championship regress considerably to the San Francisco 49ers (+850) and Green Bay Packers (+875). The 49ers hold just a 10.5% implied probability to go to their third Super Bowl since 2020.

Buffalo Bills (+300)

Is this finally the year that the Buffalo Bills are going to break through and go to the Super Bowl? They’ve been regarded as one of the favorites every year in the Josh Allen era, and this season is no different.

However, did anything change enough to make the Bills the top bet in the AFC? The core is back in Orchard Park, and as long as Allen is on the field for the Bills, they are always going to have a chance to make the Super Bowl.

Last year, the Bills fell in heartbreaking fashion to the Chiefs, 32-29, in the AFC Championship. That’s become a common theme for the Bills against the Chiefs, who have now gone 0-4 in the playoffs versus Patrick Mahomes. The last game could have gone in either direction, so they aren’t that far off.

Allen is coming off another standout season with 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions. The 2024-25 MVP also ran for 531 yards and 12 scores on the ground. Allen will have multiple weapons to work with this season, including the newly re-signed RB James Cook.

WR Khalil Shakir and WR Keon Coleman are expected to be a dynamic duo in the passing game for the Bills. They were No. 1 and No. 2 in receiving yards on the roster, while I expect TE Dalton Kincaid to play more of a prominent role.

Josh Allen throws across the field for the TD to Coleman!

📺: #NYJvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/XEMD52SiS6

— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2024

The Bills’ secondary leaves a lot to be desired, though. CB Tre’Davious White will be back, but there are question marks regarding depth. Rookie Maxwell Hairston is expected to be on the second-team defense, but a knee injury in camp hurts. In 2024-25, the Bills were 21st in the NFL, with 223.1 yards allowed per game.

If the secondary can show strides forward, the Bills are the team to beat. However, it’s likely going to come down to Allen running around and making some magic happen.

Baltimore Ravens (+325)

The Baltimore Ravens might have the second-best AFC Championship odds, but you might as well consider them a co-favorite with the Bills. There may even be an argument to make that the Ravens should he ahead of the Bills.

Like Buffalo, the Ravens have struggled to get over the hump in their current era with a franchise quarterback. QB Lamar Jackson has shown all the characteristics of a Super Bowl-winning signal caller. He won the league MVP in 2019 and 2023, and you could make the case that Jackson should’ve won last season, as well.

Lamar Jackson is the first player in NFL history to have:

more passing yards
more passing TDs
fewer interceptions
a higher completion pct
more rushing yards
a higher rushing average

…than the MVP that season. pic.twitter.com/O7pBNMLuyH

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) February 7, 2025

Regarded as a pure running quarterback for much of his career, Jackson has improved considerably as a passer over the last two years. With a 92.4 passer rating over the last two seasons, Jackson is No. 1 in the NFL! Last year, the Ravens ranked first offensively with 426.5 yards per game.

The problem with Baltimore was their anemic secondary. They were second-worst in the league, allowing 324.2 yards per game. However, that’s been addressed in the offseason, so I expect much stronger results.

Georgia rookie safety Malaki Starks was a fantastic addition with the 27th overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft. I am confident that Starks will have an instant impact on the Ravens’ defense. Head coach John Harbaugh has spoken favorably of Starks, which bodes well for the Ravens’ output defensively.

The rookie could be the missing piece on a defense that already has the run locked down. The Ravens led the league, yielding an average of 80.9 yards per game, so with some tweaks in the secondary, I’m confident about their chances in the AFC in 2025-26.

Kansas City Chiefs (+400)

Following the Chiefs’ 40-22 blowout loss to the Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl, public confidence in Andy Reid’s squad is faltering.

However, it’s hard to count the Chiefs out in the AFC after three straight trips to the Super Bowl! They’ve been in the AFC Championship Game in seven consecutive seasons, but according to the 2025-26 AFC odds, the Chiefs are the third-best team.

They didn’t look hungry enough against the Eagles in the Super Bowl. One team wanted it much more, and it certainly wasn’t the Chiefs. This team is nevertheless loaded with talent, including Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce. Mahomes passed for 3,928 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.

Patrick Mahomes: the winningest QB in NFL history. 📈🏆

(min. 100 career starts) pic.twitter.com/h1nBoAxfod

— KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) August 14, 2025

This was the fewest touchdowns Mahomes has thrown since his second season as a starter in 2019. Additionally, Kelce failed to reach 900 yards receiving for the first time since his sophomore season in 2015. The offense was just 19th, averaging 322 yards per game.

This is largely the same offense, yet a little older than a season ago. Mahomes and Co. relied heavily on the defense, setting up solid field position. The Chiefs were 10th, with 328.2 yards allowed per game. That said, the pass defense wasn’t all that great, as the Chiefs were 19th versus the pass.

That’s a major concern, and depth continues to be problematic for the Chiefs in training camp. It’s going to be tough for the AFC champs to find the fountain of youth this season. Nonetheless, you can never say Mahomes doesn’t belong in the discussion for your NFL conference championship picks in the AFC.

Philadelphia Eagles (+325)

Understandably, the Eagles are the favorites to win back-to-back NFC titles. After going 14-3 and winning the Super Bowl, they predictably own the shortest NFC Championship odds.

With the best offensive line in football, the Eagles ran the table with RB Saquon Barkley. In his first season in Philadelphia, the former Giant ran for 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns. His production in the regular season earned him the 2024-25 Offensive Player of the Year honors.

SAQUON ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!

📺: #WASvsPHI on FOX
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/26534Ls9Mx

— NFL (@NFL) January 26, 2025

Barkley followed up his tremendous regular season with the most yards in the playoffs. Finally, on a team with a competent offensive line, the running back took full advantage. The Eagles are back with a wall of a line, so Barkley should continue to thrive.

LG Landon Dickerson recently underwent surgery to repair a meniscus, which, fortunately, won’t lead to him missing significant time. Expect the offensive line to be in top shape for Barkley and QB Jalen Hurts this season. Hurts enters this season on the heels of a strong season statistically, but most importantly, he proved that he can win the Super Bowl.

First in the NFL with 18.1 points against per game, the Eagles’ defense excelled at all levels on the field. They were second versus the pass and fourth versus the run, for a well-balanced defensive unit! LB Nolan Smith and DL Jalen Carter returning to Philadelphia are big pluses, but losing LB Josh Sweat, DL Brandon Graham, and DL Bryce Huff stings.

In any event, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has another solid defense, and we should expect a strong performance again in 2025-26. There aren’t any surprises with the Eagles as the favorites to win the NFC at +325!

Detroit Lions (+500)

The Detroit Lions are one of the most interesting teams in the NFL this season! Depending on who you talk to, the Lions are either poised to win the Super Bowl or are going to regress hard.

The main concern with the Lions is their daunting schedule. According to ESPN, the Lions have the second-toughest schedule in the NFL. They’ll face 11 playoff teams from the 2024-25 season, with a combined opponents’ record of 166-123.

Now that the Lions are a respected team, they’ve been assigned plenty of primetime games against talented squads. It’s shaping up to be an entertaining schedule, though it should equate to plenty of close wins and losses in Detroit.

One aspect of this team not talked about enough is that center Frank Ragnow retired. Ragnow was a critical cog on the offensive line for the Lions, and they don’t have a suitable replacement for him. They’ll eventually figure it out, but there is likely to be an adjustment period for QB Jared Goff and the offense.

Led by Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell, I remain confident that the Lions’ offensive line will be one of the top units in the league. The offense can move the ball on the ground with RB Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, while WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is primed for another monster year.

The defense will be propelled by a motivated Aidan Hutchinson. The third-year edge rusher out of Michigan’s season was wiped due to a fractured tibia and fibula in Week 6 against the Dallas Cowboys. Having already racked up 7.5 sacks, he was on pace for a record-breaking campaign.

NEWS: #Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson has been so disruptive in training camp that HC Dan Campbell created a “Hutch Rule,” letting the offense continue despite Hutchinson’s immediate disruption.

“It’s the only way the offense can get reps,” Dan said today.

Pretty damn crazy. pic.twitter.com/KQFKVGOfGt

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) August 7, 2025

Defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard is in his first year in this role. Aaron Glenn accepted the head coaching job with the New York Jets, so the former NFL player received the promotion. Also, former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson departed for Chicago’s vacancy, leaving John Morton as their new OC.

With so many changes, I don’t feel confident in the Lions.