2025-26 UEFA Europa League Betting Preview: Winner Odds, Favorites, Predictions

Aston Villa (+650)

The summer and start of the season have been really weird for Aston Villa. Two key players, Emi Martinez and Ollie Watkins, were in limbo for most of the transfer window but eventually stayed with the club.

Villa failed to complete many big transfers, but a quick look at their summer activity shows several interesting deals. Victor Lindelof arrived on a free from Man Utd, while Harvey Elliott and Jadon Sancho will play on loan from Liverpool and Man Utd, respectively.

If you add the returning Emiliano Buendia and new striker Evann Guessand, who arrived from Nice, it’s a decent group of players.

The team struggled early on in the season, failing to score goals in four consecutive EPL games, but the tide is turning.

Villa beat Bologna in the opening Europa League round and then achieved another victory against Fulham in the Premier League. The team is improving fast, so I expect a strong campaign in Europe.

The poor start in the Premier League could be beneficial for the team’s performance in Europe, as Villa are unlikely to fight for the Champions League spots domestically. They should be focused mostly on Europe in the later stages of the season.

Furthermore, Unai Emery has an insane record in the Europa League, with four titles from this tournament. If you add the solid squad to Emery’s history, the odds on Villa to win the Europa League are quite good at +650.

I expect them to only go down from here, so backing the English side is one of the better options available early in the season.

AS Roma (+800)

AS Roma is the second favorite in the Europa League winner odds after a great start in the Italian Serie A. The team has 12 points after five rounds, sitting third in the table.

If you add the 2-1 away win against Nice in the Europa League opening game, Roma looks good at this point. The big question here is whether they can keep going and find consistency.

I’m not quite sure if that’s possible, though. If you analyze the advanced metrics, most notably xG and xGA, Roma’s form looks unsustainable.

For a start, the team has only scored five goals in the Serie A so far from a combined expected goals of 5.99. Even if the team scored six, as the underlying metrics suggest they should have, that’s not very good in five games.

While the defense has only conceded once, the xGA sits at 3.93, clearly showing that opponents have failed to capitalize on the chances created against AS Roma. Overall, it feels like the team has been overperforming a bit.

Furthermore, many of the attacking players are injury-prone. The likes of Paylo Dybala, Leon Bailey, and Evan Ferguson have missed plenty of games in the previous few seasons.

There’s certainly a world in which Roma will have to play tough Europa League ties with limited options up front in the spring.

That’s why I’m not a big fan of the team’s odds to win the Europa League. Roma could still go all the way, but I would like at least +1000 to back the Italian side with a wager.

FC Porto (+900)

I’ve been very impressed with Porto so far this season! The team is leading Liga Portugal with a perfect record of 7 wins from 7 games and a 19-1 (!) goal difference. That run includes an away victory against Sporting, one of the main rivals for the title.

If you add the away win in the Europa League against Salzburg, Porto looks ready for a big season.

This team will be very strong to break down after a few crucial transfers in the summer. Jakub Kiwior has been great in his first three games after arriving from Arsenal, and I rate him very highly.

If you add the excellent goalie Diogo Costa, and players like Jan Bednarek, Nehuen Perez, Francisco Moura, Martim Fernandes, and Alberto Costa, this is a very strong defensive unit. The depth is great as well, so Porto should be very hard to beat, even if a few players at the back are out with injuries.

On the other end, you have more than enough goals, thanks to Samo Aghehowa, William Gomez, Borja Sainz, and Pepe.

Overall, it’s an impressive group, led by a promising young coach in Francesco Farioli. The Italian’s stint with Ajax Amsterdam ended with a heartbreak last season, but he looks ready to bounce back with Porto.

I have high hopes for this team and expect a deep run in the Europa League. The odds of +900 make Porto one of the most tempting choices at this point of the campaign.

The Rest of the Bunch

I’ve focused on the three most likely winners in my analysis since I don’t really like the Europa League betting odds for other teams.

Lyon are a decent side, but they don’t have enough difference-makers, and I have doubts about their goalkeeper.

The atmosphere and results around Nottingham Forrest suggest this team will struggle in the upcoming campaign, while the Spanish Europa League representatives have been very inconsistent since the start of the season.

I’m sure more teams will improve by the spring, and I will update my predictions regularly. For now, though, I don’t like anyone outside of Aston Villa, AS Roma, and FC Porto.