UFC 319 Odds and Predictions – Can Chimaev beat du Plessis for the Belt?

• Dricus Du Plessis (+190)
• Khamzat Chimaev (-230)

Du Plessis (23-2) is making his third title defense after beating Sean Strickland for the second time, this time by unanimous decision after taking the belt from him in a split decision in their first encounter.

Du Plessis’ last four fights have come against former champions with a pair of Strickland tilts. He also TKO’d Robert Whittaker and submitted Israel Adesanya.

Chimaev (14-0) burst onto the scene with three wins in two months in 2020, but has been slowed by several issues. He has had health problems, and cutting weight also troubled Chimaev, as he failed to make 170 pounds for a fight with Nate Diaz in September 2022. He last fought in October 2024, submitting Whittaker with a vicious face crank.

The UFC 319 betting odds have Chimaev as the favorite at -230, which is around where he opened. Du Plessis has to stop his opponent’s wrestling, but the South African has a big advantage in the striking game.

Chimaev did show improvement in his stand-up in a win over former welterweight champ Kamaru Usman in October 2023, but his striking is still a means to set up his wrestling. This could be a problem in this bout, as the champions is the more complex fighter.

If Du Plessis can stretch this out to the later rounds, he can pull this off as Chimaev’s conditioning is the weakest part of his game. Du Plessis has shown the ability to bounce back from punishment, and I think he’ll wear Chimaev down in Chicago!

I’m more than happy to take the champion at plus odds for my UFC 319 predictions.

• Lerone Murphy (+150)
• Aaron Pico (-175)

Pico (13-4) lost three of his first seven fights in Bellator, but has won nine of his ten, and that loss was due to a dislocated shoulder against Jeremy Kennedy in October 2022.

The former Bellator fighter’s comes from a wrestling background but has won nine fights by knockout.

Murphy (16-0-1) fought Zubaria Tukhugov to a draw in his UFC debut back in September 2019, but has won eight straight since. The native of Manchester, England, is a striker, and will have to contend with Pico’s wrestling. Murphy can be taken down, but he has shown skills in getting back up and not allowing his opponent to control him. He’ll need those skills in this featherweight clash.

I’m moving on Murphy at +150 as we’ve seen Bellator fights have trouble in their UFC debuts, most recently, Patricio Pitbull. That being said, Pitbull is 38 years old, and Pico is 28 in his prime. Still, if Murphy can stay off the mat and keep this fight standing, he has the edge.

The bout is a coin flip for me, so I’m more than happy to take Murphy at +150.

• Michael Page (-195)
• Jared Cannonier (+165)

This middleweight tilt features a pair of strikers in Page (23-3) and Cannonier (18-8), and you don’t have to worry about takedowns. These sluggers will stand in the middle of the Octagon and trade punches and kicks until the final bell.

Cannonier has more one-punch power, but Page is very elusive and is difficult to hit. Cannonier will take a punch to throw one, but that might not work against an opponent who will get 2-3 strikes in during that time. Page isn’t going to stand in front of Cannonier, but rather, he’ll use his feints and speed to throw the Dallas, Texas native off.

Page at -195 seems like a good deal, and I’d keep an eye on the props surrounding this fight as well. The former Bellator star has settled in nicely with the UFC, going 2-1 so far. You could even argue that he won the fight against Ian Garry Machado. Let’s take Page to edge Cannonier with UFC 319 odds of -195!