Best College Football Player Props Today: Expert NCAAF Player Prop Bets for November 12

Total Passing Yards: Ta’Quan Roberson (BUF) Over 209.5 (-115)

Ta’Quan Roberson of the Buffalo Bulls is set up nicely to clear his passing‐yards mark of 209.5 against the Central Michigan Chippewas at odds of ‑115. He enters with 1,739 yards, 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season, showing consistent volume and opportunity.

In three of his last four outings he’s thrown for 266 yards or more, signalling the ceiling is well above this line. The only exception was a blowout win (28‑3 over Bowling Green Falcons) where Buffalo didn’t lean on the pass and Roberson gained just 136 yards. For this matchup however the expectation is a tighter game, so Buffalo will likely turn to the air more frequently.

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Meanwhile Central Michigan’s pass defense has proven vulnerable, yielding an average of 224 passing yards per game, ranking 66th in the FBS. With that susceptibility and the game script projecting toward a competitive finish, Roberson should get plenty of chances to surpass 209.5 passing yards.

Total Passing Yards: Dequan Finn (MOH) Under 191.5 (-115)

Dequan Finn faces a brutal draw this week against a stingy Toledo pass defense, making the under on 191.5 passing yards an appealing prop at -115. Finn has managed 1,451 passing yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions across eight games but the matchup here will be a problem.

Toledo’s secondary has been elite all season, allowing just 157.9 passing yards per game, good for sixth in the country. That’s a major red flag for a quarterback who’s completing only 58.6% of his throws and has been held under 190 yards in four separate games.

Finn has struggled to string together consistent production through the air and Toledo’s pass defense doesn’t give up much room to operate. In a game that should be tight and physical, fading Finn’s arm and betting the under makes strong sense.

1. Evaluate Roster Turnover and Returning/Departing Players

While this is a must for placing your college football picks on traditional markets like the point spread, it’s also important to examine roster turnover for prop betting.

Let’s assume an experienced defense from the 2023-24 season has several new faces in the secondary for this year. Especially through the first month, we can assume that there will be an adjustment period for the defense.

As a result, quarterbacks and wide receivers typically have a high likelihood of feasting on these units. Of course, this can be applied to a variety of situations and examples.

For instance, if you are considering backing a running back’s rushing prop bet, I would advise investigating the experience on the offensive line before betting. Additionally, the defensive line and linebackers of the opposing defense are worth your time.

Teams can look much different than the previous season in college football because of graduations and the transfer portal, so it’s invaluable information to have for your NCAA football player props today!

2. Know the Team’s Offensive Philosophy and System

College football is unique due to the variety of different offensive systems that teams utilize. From conference to conference and team to team, coaches have implemented their system to best suit their personnel.

Some of these offensive strategies include the pro-style offense, pistol offense, air-raid offense, run-and-shoot offense, spread offense, option offense, and more.

The system will have a direct correlation to offensive output. An air-raid offense is going to put up far more yardage through the air than a pro-style system, for instance.

Understanding the offensive objective of the players you are backing for your NCAA football player props is vital for being profitable.

3. Analyze Each Individual Matchup for Strengths and Weaknesses

You can’t make your best college football prop bets without breaking down each individual matchup! It would be a losing proposition to not take into consideration the strengths and weaknesses of each squad.

This also ties into analyzing team and NCAA statistics to help you ascertain which teams are excelling and struggling in certain areas. I have come to discover that teams rarely fix trouble spots with their roster in the same season.

When a team is bad against the run, pass, and so on, it typically takes an offseason or two to address these needs. Things that are working and failing tend to continue through the season.

In short, I recommend identifying early trends and noting them for your wagers in the future.

Carson Beck Passing Yards Prop:

• BetUS: Over 280.5 (-120), Under 280.5 (-110)
• Bovada: Over 278.5 (-115), Under 278.5 (-115)

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• BetUS
• BetOnline