Best College Football Player Props Today: NCAAF Player Prop Bets for December 18

Anytime Touchdown: Shomari Lawrence (MOST) (-135)

RB Shomari Lawrence is in a great spot to cash his anytime touchdown prop in the Xbox Bowl against Arkansas State. The Missouri State running back has been the focal point of the offense down the stretch, and there’s every reason to expect him to be featured again in this one.

Lawrence has scored in three straight games and has totaled five touchdowns in his last five outings. That kind of consistency, paired with his clear role as the Bears’ lead back, makes him a strong TD candidate. He’s logged 58 touches over his last three appearances, getting plenty of chances near the goal line.

Touchdown, Missouri State!

Shomari Lawrence takes it 41 yards to the house to give the Bears a 7-0 lead late in the 2nd quarter.

It’s Lawrence’s first multi-scoring game. pic.twitter.com/sE26yQj2Qi

— Preme Football (@premefootball) October 30, 2025

Now he draws an Arkansas State defense ranked 110th in the country against the run. The Red Wolves are surrendering 187.9 rushing yards per game, and they’ve struggled to keep running backs out of the end zone all season.

With his recent form and volume, Lawrence is well-positioned to add another touchdown to his total.

Anytime Touchdown: Jaylen Raynor (ASU) (-105)

QB Jaylen Raynor is a clear threat to hit the end zone with his legs in the Xbox Bowl, making his anytime touchdown prop at -105 an enticing option. The Arkansas State quarterback brings a true dual-threat skill set, averaging over 10 carries per game and piling up 434 rushing yards with seven touchdowns this season.

Raynor has maintained that scoring pace recently, finding the end zone three times in his last five games. He’s a frequent option in short-yardage and red zone situations, and his mobility gives the Red Wolves a dynamic edge when the play breaks down.

He’ll be attacking a Missouri State front that has struggled to contain the run, giving up 168.8 yards per game on the ground. That weakness fits right into Raynor’s wheelhouse, making this a smart play on a quarterback who has the green light to make things happen with his legs.

1. Evaluate Roster Turnover and Returning/Departing Players

While this is a must for placing your college football picks on traditional markets like the point spread, it’s also important to examine roster turnover for prop betting.

Let’s assume an experienced defense from the previous season has several new faces in the secondary for this year. Especially through the first month, we can assume that there will be an adjustment period for the defense.

As a result, quarterbacks and wide receivers typically have a high likelihood of feasting on these units. Of course, this can be applied to a variety of situations and examples.

For instance, if you are considering backing a running back’s rushing prop bet, I would advise investigating the experience on the offensive line before betting. Additionally, the defensive line and linebackers of the opposing defense are worth your time.

Teams can look much different than the previous season in college football because of graduations and the transfer portal, so it’s invaluable information to have for your NCAA football player props today!

2. Know the Team’s Offensive Philosophy and System

College football is unique due to the variety of different offensive systems that teams utilize. From conference to conference and team to team, coaches have implemented their system to best suit their personnel.

Some of these offensive strategies include the pro-style offense, pistol offense, air-raid offense, run-and-shoot offense, spread offense, option offense, and more.

The system will have a direct correlation to offensive output. An air-raid offense is going to put up far more yardage through the air than a pro-style system, for instance.

Understanding the offensive objective of the players you are backing for your NCAA football player props is vital for being profitable.

3. Analyze Each Individual Matchup for Strengths and Weaknesses

You can’t make your best college football prop bets without breaking down each individual matchup! It would be a losing proposition to not take into consideration the strengths and weaknesses of each squad.

This also ties into analyzing team and NCAA statistics to help you ascertain which teams are excelling and struggling in certain areas. I have come to discover that teams rarely fix trouble spots with their roster in the same season.

When a team is bad against the run, pass, and so on, it typically takes an offseason or two to address these needs. Things that are working and failing tend to continue through the season.

In short, I recommend identifying early trends and noting them for your wagers in the future.

Carson Beck Passing Yards Prop:

• BetUS: Over 280.5 (-120), Under 280.5 (-110)
• Bovada: Over 278.5 (-115), Under 278.5 (-115)

• Bovada
• Betwhale
• BetUS
• BetOnline