NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 20: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jalen Brunson +500 (76ers vs. Knicks)

Jalen Brunson is one of our best first basket prop bets today at +500 odds against the Philadelphia 76ers. Karl-Anthony Towns gives New York a strong chance to win the opening tip and secure the first possession, setting up Jalen Brunson to make an immediate impact.

Brunson ranked among the top five NBA players with 14 first baskets and a 19% success rate in games played during the 2025-26 season. That track record demonstrates his ability to deliver early scoring, while his role as New York’s primary offensive weapon gives him an excellent opportunity to strike first again.

Brunson also averaged 26.0 points and 7.3 assists per game in 2024-25, highlighting the scoring ability that makes him such a dangerous opening-possession option. He can attack the basket, create his own shot, and knock down jumpers, giving the Knicks multiple ways to get him involved immediately.

Jalen Brunson's 2025-26 run was HISTORIC.

🏆 NBA All-Star & All-NBA
🏆 Emirates NBA Cup MVP
🏆 Eastern Conference Finals MVP
🏆 NBA Finals MVP
🏆 NBA Champion@jalenbrunson1 and the @nyknicks begin their title defense tomorrow night against the new-look Sixers at 7pm/et on NBC… pic.twitter.com/pbUJmlEFZ2

— NBA (@NBA) October 20, 2026

With Towns potentially securing the opening possession and Brunson’s proven first-basket production, +500 is a price worth backing. We’re targeting the Knicks’ star guard to open the scoring.

Victor Wembanyama +420 (Thunder vs. Spurs)

Victor Wembanyama is one of our best NBA first basket bets today at +420 odds against the Oklahoma City Thunder. At 7-foot-4, Victor Wembanyama has the size and reach to control the opening tip and put San Antonio in position to strike first. Once the Spurs secure possession, he can overpower defenders at the rim or punish them with his perimeter shooting.

Wembanyama’s first-basket numbers make this pick even stronger. He scored the first basket in 19% of his 64 games during the 2025-26 season, establishing himself as one of the league’s most dangerous options in this market. He also led the Spurs with 25 points per game, alongside 11.5 rebounds, demonstrating his dominance as San Antonio’s primary offensive weapon.

WEMBY GOES OFF-THE-GLASS TO HIMSELF FOR THE SLAM 👽

Forces a miss.
Takes it coast-to-coast.
Pass to self.
JAM. pic.twitter.com/nc8ILikysU

— NBA (@NBA) October 17, 2026

The matchup sets up well for Wembanyama to make an immediate impact. His size and scoring versatility from anywhere on the floor make him the clear target for this wager. At +420, we’re backing the Spurs’ superstar to win the opening tip opportunity and put the first points on the board.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.